Scott Mendelson

Breaking down “The Avengers’” box office take

The debut is even more impressive than you think, delivering a record weekend of $207.1 million in high style

This originally appeared on Scott Mendelson's Open Salon blog.

Ten years ago, “Spider-Man”shocked the industry by grossing more than $100 million in a single weekend. Five years ago, “Spider-Man 3″ broke the $150 million weekend barrier. This weekend, “The Avengers” has blown through the $200 million barrier, delivering a record opening weekend of $207.1 million in high style. Yes, the number is beyond huge, besting “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II” by $38 million. But the total weekend number only tells part of the story. Arguably as important as the massive three-day figure is the manner in which it was earned.

First of all, “The Avengers” is the first film in modern times (going back to “Batman” 23 years ago) to break the opening weekend record without shattering the opening day record. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II” still holds the record for the biggest single day, biggest opening day, and biggest Friday with $91 million. “The Avengers” earned a massive $80 million on its first Friday, good for the second-highest single day of all time. But for the last several years, massive opening weekends of this nature have been predicated on overly front-loaded opening days, in turn predicated on front-loaded midnight showings. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II” made $43 million at midnight alone, or 25 percent of its $169 weekend total. “The Hunger Games” did 12 percent of its $152 million debut at midnight. “Twilight Saga: New Moon” did 18 percent of its $142 million debut at midnight alone. “The Avengers” did just 9 percent of its gross, or $18.7 million, at midnight. This means that the film played obscenely well all weekend, not just on opening day for frenzied fans.

In terms of single-day records, “The Avengers” actually did break one Friday record, as it made $61 million not counting midnight screenings, crushing the $49 million “regular business hours” Friday grosses of “Spider-Man 3,” “The Dark Knight” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II.” It handily broke both the Saturday and Sunday records by wide margins. “The Avengers” actually made more on Saturday ($69 million) than it did during “normal business hours” on Friday, besting “Spider-Man 3′s” $51 million Saturday record. And while final figures could change, “The Avengers” grossed $59 million on Sunday, crushing the $43 million earned by “The Dark Knight” on its first Sunday.

“The Avengers” did not have a sub-2.0x weekend multiplier like the last “Harry Potter” film, or the barely-2.0x multiplier like the last couple of “Twilight” films and “The Hunger Games.” “The Avengers” pulled a rock-solid 2.57x weekend multiplier. That’s the kind of consistency you rarely find with big opening weekends, let alone monstrous record-setters like this. The film earned an A+ from Cinemascore, and these numbers bear that out.

The picture played 50 percent over/under 25 years old and 60 percent male. It earned a surprising 52 percent of its gross in 3-D ticket sales with 8 percent of that being from IMAX.  So yes, even without the 3-D bump, it still would have set a new opening weekend record (around $175 million, although theoretical 2-D IMAX showings would have had the same “bump” as 3-D IMAX showings). And yes, even with inflation factored in, the film sold more tickets over its opening weekend than any other film ever (26.5 million tickets, about 3.5 million more than “The Dark Knight”). “The Avengers” played all weekend to packed houses all day and night for audiences of all shapes and sizes. And, if only judging by my Twitter feed, there was lots of repeat business just over the weekend.

I may have token issues with the film in terms of its worth as a piece of art (non-spoiler review and spoiler discussion). But as a big-budget spectacle rooted in characters worth cheering for, the picture absolutely delivers the kind of popcorn entertainment that these kind of films often fail to deliver. Marvel did the groundwork over the last four years, releasing stand-alone films that introduced most of these heroes in their solo adventures, and this was the glorious payoff. This was the first Marvel film distributed by Disney, as Paramount sold the rights to its Marvel characters to the Mouse House back in 2010. While I may carp about the quality of the marketing materials (mediocre trailers, hilariously Photoshopped posters), they did take the time and money to guarantee curiosity and awareness, while the film’s quality was the most potent tool in creating interest outside of the die-hards, as Disney correctly screened the film early and often to create a typhoon of buzz heading into its domestic debut.

Opening weekend is usually more about marketing than the quality of the film, but the consistent numbers clearly show that the film’s quality was a key component of the marketing campaign. Still, if I may, I’d like to take a moment to remember the stellar marketing work that Paramount has done with the prior five films, starting with marketing a B-level hero (“Iron Man”) to a $100 million debut four years ago. They sold “Thor” despite having little buzz-worthy footage and managed the tricky feat of turning “Captain America” into a global blockbuster. Disney deserves plenty of credit for this weekend’s debut, but let’s not let Paramount become the Chris Columbus of Marvel marketing efforts (although Paramount will get their share of “Avengers” movie too).

Oh yeah, the film continued to burn up the foreign charts too, and the film now has $648 million worldwide, good for the top-grossing worldwide earner of 2012 (it will probably surpass “The Hunger Games” domestically within a week, so I was wrong on that count). How high it climbs is a complete mystery at this point. The strong weekend multiplier, the rousing audience reactions, the strong replay value, and the comparative lack of competition over the next month (sorry, “Battleship,” you’re officially sunk) leaves the field open for a huge sprint.

In 12 days worldwide, it has out-grossed every prior Marvel movie on a worldwide scale outside of the first three “Spider-Man” films. It out-grossed the domestic totals of “The Incredible Hulk,” “Thor” and “Captain America” in three days. In just three days, it is the 12th-highest-grossing comic book film of all-time in America, and will surpass ”300″ ($210 million), and “X2″ ($214 million) tomorrow while passing “X-Men: The Last Stand “($234 million), “Men in Black” ($250 million) and “Batman” ($251 million) by Tuesday or Wednesday. This isn’t a guarantee, but if it can hold up and weather what should be a solid debut for Tim Burton’s “Dark Shadows,” we could see the first $100 million second-weekend and a 10-day total dangerously close to $400 million. Again, it’s not just the three-day figure, but the manner in which it was earned.

This is no quick-kill blockbuster that dies off after the hardcore fans see it over opening weekend. Even a somewhat healthy 2.5x weekend-to-final gross multiplier gets the film a $517 million domestic total while a 3x multiplier has it flirting with besting “Titanic’s” original theatrical release with $621 million (these pesky 3-D reissues make everything more complicated). If it performs like “The Dark Knight” (3.3x multiplier), it ends with a stunning $683 million. We’ll know more next weekend, but for now, this is an incredible weekend performance by a film that was rewarded for delivering exactly what it promised.

For a look at the history of the opening weekend record-breaker, go here.

A “Hunger Games” sequel wish list

Hollywood needs more women directing big franchise films. Here are nine who'd do a great job on this one

Jennifer Lawrence in "The Hunger Games"
This originally appeared on Scot Mendelson's Open Salon blog.

The Playlist doesn’t break news all that often, merely seeing fit to be a one-stop shop for the movie news that everyone else breaks during the day (I don’t mean that as an insult, the Playlist is the site I go to if I only have time to surf one movie news site in a given day). So it’s somewhat of a big deal that the Playlist broke a pretty major story last week, confirming that director Gary Ross will not be back to helm the second and/or third films in the “Hunger Games” franchise. There had been rumblings all week about contract negotiations, and Ross has now politely passed. The site chalks it up to Ross’ lack of desire to stay in the same universe for the next several years combined with a somewhat low-ball offer from Lionsgate. Whatever the case, Ross is gone and the hunt for a new director is on.

While editing my “John Carter” obituary a few weeks ago, I removed a large paragraph dealing with the trend of giving young white male filmmakers with barely a feature credit to their name the keys to $100 million-$300 million franchise films while seasoned pro women and/or minorities remain noticeably absent from the “wish list” (yes, I was glad to see F. Gary Gray on the Marvel wish-list for “Captain America 2″). And while I wouldn’t consider “The Hunger Games” a “female film,” it would be a great opportunity to make a point that female directors can indeed handle the kind of big-scale filmmaking that studios are all too willing to offer to mostly untested male directors as a matter of course. So, perhaps arbitrarily, perhaps to prove a point about how inaccessible the wish list is for female directors, here are nine directors who happen to be women who also belong on the wish list as Lionsgate hunts for a second director. These are in alphabetical order, with the exception of the final entry who would be my top choice.

Kathryn Bigelow

Duh. In fact, she’ll probably make the wish list as a token nod to gender diversity, and all she had to do was become the first female in history to win a best director Oscar. I don’t really have to explain this pick. She’s been directing hard action pictures for 30 years. She’s helmed the likes of “Near Dark” (a dusty vampire thriller that still holds up 25 years later), “Point Break” (which is really better than its camp-fueled reputation), the underrated “Blue Steel,” “Strange Days,” “K19: The Widowmaker,” the two-part guns-ablaze sixth-season finale of “Homicide: Life on the Street,” and of course the Oscar-winning “The Hurt Locker.” If Lionsgate wants instant critical respectability without breaking a sweat, Bigelow will be at the top of the list, regardless of gender.

Niki Caro

“North Country” is the definition of the kind of movie they just don’t make anymore. As recently as 2005, Warner Bros. gave Caro the reins to an all-star drama detailing a landmark 1984 sexual-discrimination/harassment suit. Lead Charlize Theron and supporting actress Frances McDormand both justifiably received Oscar nominations for the little-seen October 2005 release. The picture is a straight-up social issues drama, filled with character turns from Richard Jenkins, Sean Bean, Sissy Spacek, Woody Harrelson and then-unknowns Amber Heard, Michelle Monaghan and Jeremy Renner. In 2005, it was one of any number of big studio dramas battling it out for Oscar glory. Today, it would be a front-runner purely by virtue of its existence. Caro’s picture personifies the sort of high-quality big-studio adult drama that is all but an endangered species, and she also helmed the dynamite “Whale Rider” back in 2002 as well. If every studio release were at least as good as “North Country,” I imagine most of us wouldn’t feel the need to constantly whine about the state of studio movies these days.

Catherine Hardwicke

Yes, “Red Riding Hood” was an entertaining whiff. I like it even while admitting it’s pretty bad (it’s certainly never boring and Gary Oldman is a hoot). But go back and watch the first “Twilight.” Here’s a dirty secret: It’s actually pretty good. It’s light on its feet, quirky, self-deprecating and utterly aware of its melodramatic nature. Unlike the self-serious sequels, which treat their respective source material like holy tombs (and probably would have cut “vampire baseball” out of fear of irreverence), the first “Twilight “is genuinely fun, willing to change little details and add character beats to keep the film engaging. Kristen Stewart is quite compelling as a more self-aware Bella while Robert Pattinson is allowed to be just a little goofy in the opening act (his biology class freak-out is pretty hilarious). Most important for the purposes of this current franchise, the supporting characters are wonderfully fleshed out and brought to life, giving the film a pulpy lived-in quality that none of the sequels can match (Bella’s friends are actually charming and have their own lives). Point being, if you’re among the many critics who wished that even a few of the supporting characters were a little more fleshed out in the first “Hunger Games” installment, why not bring on someone who knows how to build an aggressively lively supporting cast, one that arguably superceded the stars in at least one film? She wouldn’t be my top choice, but there would be some poetic justice to it nonetheless.

Mary Harron

Has any movie made in the early 2000s, save perhaps ”Requiem for a Dream,” aged as tragically well as ”American Psycho”?  The film got mixed reviews in its day, with many critics unable to look past the grotesque subject matter (and the even more grotesque source material) to notice that the film’s sex and violence were all but beside the point. Christian Bale turns in what will probably be the best performance of his career (certainly Patrick Bateman is as defining a turn as Robert De Niro’s Travis Bickle) in a brutal satire of the 1980s “greed is good” corporate mind-set that tragically proves even more topical today as the ghosts of Reagan came back to haunt us in the guise of George W. Bush and corporate giants like Goldman Sachs. Had the film been better received in its time, perhaps Harron wouldn’t have just now helmed a theatrical follow-up, the upcoming ”The Moth Diaries” (she directed an HBO Bettie Page biopic in 2005). Not to repeat a theme (and it won’t be the last time I bring this up), but had “she” been a “he,” Harron probably would have a half-dozen features to her name by this point.

Patty Jenkins

She was supposed to be the mold-breaker. Hired late last year to direct Marvel Comics’ “Thor 2,” Jenkins was supposed to become the first female director to helm a mega-budget comic book tent pole (Lexi Alexander’s “Punisher: War Zone” cost just $30 million). But the rather mysterious “creative differences” excuse sent her packing, replaced by longtime television director Alan Taylor (director of the heartbreaking “Homicide: Life on the Street “series finale and the “Mad Men” pilot), which in turn led to a national grumbling among feminist film pundits and a very pissed-off Natalie Portman. Jenkins’ career is a perfect demonstration of the gender disparity in Hollywood. In an age where Marc Webb is handed the reins to “The Amazing Spider-Man ” after directing one moderately successful low-budget romantic comedy (“500 Days of Summer”), Jenkins has barely worked since directing the Oscar-winning “Monster” nine years ago. She recently won an Emmy for directing the pilot for AMC’s “The Killing,” but that’s pretty much all she’s done since 2003. If you haven’t seen “Monster” in a while, it’s a pretty great movie, and it’s certainly more than just Charlize Theron’s deservedly-Oscar-winning star turn (Christina Ricci is just as good). Call it poetic justice or merely good sense, but Lionsgate would be wise to snap up Jenkins and give her the keys to an even bigger franchise.

Mimi Leder

In the late 1990s, Mimi Leder was on her way to becoming one of the biggest female directors in modern history. But while male directors get whiff after whiff until their eventual “comeback film” (think Scorsese in the 1980s, from “Raging Bull “to “Goodfellas”), Leder was out after just one high-profile miss. Never mind that “The Peacemaker” was a frighteningly ahead-of-its-time action drama (and a painfully underrated one at that), never mind that “Deep Impact” was at the time the highest grossing film in history directed by a woman.  The critical and artistic disaster of “Pay It Forward” pretty much killed everyone involved, ending the film careers of Helen Hunt and Haley Joel Osment while fatally damaging Kevin Spacey’s prestige. Leder hasn’t directed another theatrical feature since that 2000 disappointment (she helmed the 2009 Morgan Freeman/Antonio Bandaras direct-to-DVD action flick “Thick as Thieves”).  She just started preproduction on a remake of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which, if it comes to pass, will be her first theatrical release in 12 years. If you want a female director who knows how to craft top-notch action, why not hire Leder?

Lynne Ramsay

In a gender-neutral world, Lynne Ramsay would be on all of the wish lists right now. After all, she made a splash last year with the fantastic “We Need to Talk About Kevin,” coaxing a career-peak performance from Tilda Swinton and crafting a powerful psychological horror drama that defies easy description or even common interpretation. It’s a powerful and gripping picture, her third feature no less. If “Chronicle’s” Josh Trank can end up with a dozen high-profile choices after making one terrific film, then Ramsay deserves her pick of the litter as well. Of course, the fact that Trank made his mark with a superhero deconstruction and was then offered a bunch of comic book superhero films is in itself a sign of Hollywood’s lack of imagination, which is why Debra Granik (who would also be on various wish lists in a just world) won’t be on this list. There is no escaping the several similarities between “Winter’s Bone” and “The Hunger Games” and I’d argue that choosing the helmer of the former is every bit as lazy as choosing Jennifer Lawrence to basically reprise her Oscar-nominated character in the first place. But Ramsay would be an inspired and outside-the-box choice, and arguably someone who can bring suspense and intensity to a franchise that lacked requisite tension the first time around.

Jennifer Yuh

With all the seemingly justified hubbub about Brenda Chapman getting canned from Pixar’s “Brave” last year, no one seemed to notice that Dreamworks (who hired Chapman to direct “The Prince of Egypt” 14 years ago) gave one of its prize franchises to a South Korean female director who promptly knocked it out of the park. I assume you don’t need me to remind you how much I loved “Kung Fu Panda 2.” It was my favorite film of 2011 and a splendid action dramedy that absolutely stands with “Toy Story 2,” “The Dark Knight” and “X2: X-Men United” on the list of all-time great genre sequels from the last 15 years.  The only reason she isn’t my top pick is because I wouldn’t want her taking the “Chasing Fire” gig to stand in the way of her directing “Kung Fu Panda 3.” But she absolutely deserves a spot on every genre wish list from now until she retires.

And my personal pick…

Kasi Lemmons

Yes, it would be groundbreaking/cool/etc. if the reins to today’s biggest new franchise were handed off to an African-American woman. But it would also be just-plain-cool if “Chasing Fire” were handed to the person who happened to direct “Eve’s Bayou” and “Talk to Me.” She directed three features between 1997 and 2007 (the middle one being the not-that-great “The Caveman’s Valentine” in 2001, which still featured a fine star turn from Samuel L. Jackson). But “Eve’s Bayou” is a terrific period drama that features one of Jackson’s best performances, period. ”Talk to Me” is a fine and thoughtful biopic about 1960s Washington, D.C., radio DJ Ralph “Petey” Greene (played by Don Cheadle), which features strong supporting work from Chiwetel Ejiofor (his pool hall conversation with Cheadle is the stuff of acting-class gold), Taraji P. Henson and Martin Sheen (even if Sheen’s best scene ended up on the DVD deleted scenes reel). I don’t pretend to know why she has worked so little in the last 15 years, but her lack of output has always (to me) personified the difficulty that minority and female filmmakers face in terms of having a steady output of movies even after they’ve had one or two successes.  Tokenism and/or affirmative action accusations aide, Lemmons has made two awfully good films and deserves a shot at the big leagues at least as much as the likes of Josh Trank and Marc Webb.

OK, your turn to pick.  Who would you want to see helm the next “Hunger Games” film?  It doesn’t have to be a woman or a minority, but try to be a little creative.

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Fake feminism in Angelina Jolie’s “Salt”

Her role was originally written for a man, but filmmakers were sure to avoid emasculating her on-screen husband

Angelina Jolie in "Salt"(Credit: Andrew Schwartz)

The cover story of this year’s Entertainment Weekly summer movie preview concerns the behind-the-scenes scoop on the new espionage thriller “Salt,” directed by Phillip Noyce and starring Angelina Jolie, Liev Schreiber and Chiwetel Ekiofor. Much of the article is a group pat on the back for the supposedly amazing progressiveness of the fact that Angelina Jolie ended up playing an action hero originally written for a male star like Tom Cruise (who bailed when the script began to too closely resemble a “Mission: Impossible” picture). Fair enough, but such a thing really shouldn’t be a big deal in 2010, and the fact that the filmmakers are falling over themselves in self-congratulation is the very opposite of progressive.

But there’s a real kicker buried amid Noyce and his colleagues’ smugness:

“In the original script, there was a huge sequence where Edwin Salt (the original male protagonist) saves his wife, who’s in danger,” says Noyce. “And what we found in the new script, it seemed to castrate his character a little. So we had to change the nature of that relationship.” In the end, Salt’s husband, played by German actor August Diehl (‘Inglourious Basterds’), was made tough enough that he didn’t need saving, thank you much.

So, hidden in an article on how “Salt” is oh-so-empowering for female action heroes is this tidbit. The filmmakers believe that it was perfectly OK for the spouse to be rescued from mortal danger if said love interest was a girl, but not if the romantic partner was a man. Apparently, it’s great if the action hero is a girl, as long as she doesn’t have the opportunity to one-up any male counterparts or reverse the oldest cliché in the action-film handbook. Saying that girls can be portrayed as helpless damsels in distress but boys can’t or shouldn’t be is the very opposite of the sort of “progress” that Noyce and Jolie claim to be making. 

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Box office report: Is “Shutter Island” Scorsese’s biggest?

Marty's latest may outdo "The Departed." Kevin Smith's "Cop Out," horror remake "Crazies" also open strong

Leonardo DiCaprio and Michelle Williams in "Shutter Island"(Credit: Cooper - 1)

This will be shorter than usual. First of all, there isn’t all that much news to report and second of all, I spent the day at Disneyland, which was far more crowded than usual. Curse you, “Captain Eo”! You marred my Sunday in three dimensions! Point being, I’m pooped. So “Shutter Island” pulled a repeat at No. 1 this weekend, dropping just 45 percent for a $22.2 million second weekend and a new total of $75 million.

Despite the mixed reviews and word of mouth, the Scorsese thriller is still the only real event movie out there for people who don’t need a return trip to Pandora. While I didn’t care for “Shutter Island” one bit, I am heartened that a moody, complicated, two-hour-plus, non-sequel, R-rated thriller from Martin Scorsese is a genuine smash hit. In this day and age, it’s always refreshing to see an adult-driven genre picture to reach heights only usually accorded to franchises and animated films. The picture is Scorsese’s fifth-biggest domestic grosser, and will reach no. 3 on that list by next weekend. Whether or not it can surpass the $132 million earned by “The Departed” is an open question, but it won’t have any demo competition until “The Green Zone.” That Bourne-goes-to-Baghdad thriller opens March 12. (I have no idea if that’s an accurate summary, by the way, but it’s sure how the Paul Greengrass/Matt Damon film is being sold by Universal).

Nos. 2 and 3 went to new releases. Both performed a bit above expectations. Kevin Smith’s “Cop Out” nearly doubled his previous personal-best opening weekend with $18.5 million (his previous high, “Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back,” opened with $11 million back in August 2001). This also marks one of Bruce Willis’ best debuts over the last decade, as his star power has decreased since he stopped working with M. Night Shyamalan. It’s his 11th-best opening weekend, and most of the bigger openings were from the 1990s. This isn’t just a case of waning star power as much as Willis choosing non-commercial ventures. No one expected “Alpha Dog” or “Lucky Number Slevin” to play like “Armageddon,” so this solid opening with a purely commercial picture is a good sign.

As for Smith, this will easily become his biggest-grossing picture, as he’s never had a film gross over $31 million (Warner spent $30 million making this one). I’d argue that while the whole “Kevin Smith tossed off airplane” controversy helped push the film into the public consciousness, it still doesn’t excuse how the media covered said event (essentially: “Ha ha, Kevin Smith is fat!” rather than “Hey, Southwest Airlines ejected a passenger who clearly was not too obese to fly!”). As it is, Smith’s movies are often greeted by one controversy or another (Kevin Smith vs. the Roman Catholic church, Kevin Smith vs. GLAAD, Kevin Smith vs. the overexposure of “Bennifer”). It will be interesting to see how the film plays long-term. Despite terrible reviews, it still pulled in a solid 3.13x multiplier, implying theoretically positive word of mouth. It will also be interesting to see if Tracy Morgan gets more film work as a result of this opening, as the film was clearly sold on his antics as much as Willis’ star-power.

Number three went to the remake of “The Crazies,” which Overture opened to $16.5 million. The surprisingly well-reviewed remake of a 1973 George Romero picture pulled in a 2.75x multiplier, which is about normal for a horror film. With this opening and “Law-Abiding Citizen,” “Capitalism: A Love Story” and “Righteous Kill,” Overture is establishing itself as a major player. For what it’s worth, my wife and I watched the original version of “The Crazies” last night, and it’s a shockingly good and genuinely disturbing little picture. If the remake is any good, might I suggest you check out director Breck Eisner’s previous film, the vastly underrated “Sahara”? Anyway, fourth place went to the film that cannot be killed (until next weekend, when it will likely be killed), “Avatar.” Dropping just 13 percent, the James Cameron epic crossed $700 million in its 11th weekend. Alas, this will likely be the last weekend of tiny drops, as Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” opens on Friday and will steal all of the IMAX screens and most of the 3D auditoriums.

The only limited releases were the foreign-language Oscar nominee “A Prophet” ($170,000 on nine screens), “Formosa Betrayed” ($69,000 on 15 screens), the documentary “Art of the Steal” ($40,300 on three screens) and “The Yellow Handkerchief” ($39,600 on seven screens). Roman Polanski’s “The Ghost Writer” expanded to 43 screens and made another $870,000. It’s new total is $1.1 million. While the film was not cheap ($45 million), Summit Entertainment is only on the hook for whatever they paid for North American distribution rights, so this should be a nice non-”Twilight” feather in their cap to go along with their likely Oscar glory for “The Hurt Locker.” Other than that, it was just a matter of various films crossing arbitrary marks. “Valentine’s Day” crossed $100 million, “Percy Jackson and the … too tired to type out the full title for this terrible movie” and “Dear John” crossed $70 million, while “The Wolfman” sits at just $57 million (on a reported budget of $150 million). “Crazy Heart” crossed $25 million and “When in Rome” crossed $30 million. At $248 million, “The Blind Side” is less than $10 million from passing “Star Trek,” after dropping just 10 percent in its 15th weekend.

Join us next weekend for the likely-to-be-huge debut of Disney’s “Alice in Wonderland.” While I likely won’t see it until opening night (it was a choice of seeing it early by myself or waiting until Friday and letting my wife come along), I do hope it’s closer to this than to this. Alas, if you’ve read this, you know where my instincts lie. Also opening is the Antoine Fuqua police drama, “Brooklyn’s Finest” (also from Overture) and the IFC Jon Hamm thriller, “Stolen.” Oh AT&T U-Verse, why don’t you carry IFC On Demand?

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Box office report: “Shutter Island” blows the doors off

DiCaprio and Scorsese score a career-best opening with $40 million; Polanski's "Ghost Writer" a small-scale hit

Mark Ruffalo and Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

The infamously delayed “Shutter Island” debuted to smashing business over its initial weekend, as the Martin Scorsese thriller debuted to $40.2 million. That’s a personal best for both director Scorsese and star Leonardo DiCaprio. Scorsese’s previous best opening was the $26.8 million debut of “The Departed” in October 2006 (also starring Leonardo DiCaprio), while this was DiCaprio’s second $30 million-plus debut, following the $30 million opening of Steven Spielberg’s “Catch Me If You Can” back in December 2002. Since both the star and director have rarely opened anything over $10 million based on their respective names alone, credit should go to the marketing and the general concept of the story. As I’ve often said, adult thrillers are in rare supply these days and the few that make through the pipeline have a pretty decent track record (you think “Vantage Point” or “Law-Abiding Citizen” opened to around $22 million apiece due to critical acclaim?). Mix a genuinely intriguing concept (1950s lawman trapped in a scary mental hospital), factor the pedigree involved, and then add a compelling and pervasive trailer that has been running in every theater nonstop since August, and you had the recipe for a breakout weekend.

Most promisingly, the $80 million potboiler improved over the weekend, going from a $14.1 million Friday to a to $16.3 million Saturday. Paramount predicted a 40 percent Sunday drop to $9.7 million, so I think we’re being buttered up for a “Wow, the movie did even better than we thought” Monday press release when the finals are released. Regardless, in this day and age, a 2.85x weekend multiplier is pretty solid for any opening weekend this big, even for an R-rated adult-driven thriller.

Much will be written about how Paramount’s choice to move the picture from October 2009 to this weekend was a brilliant move. In hindsight it was, but it purely a hard financial call, as the studio was trying to save money during the last quarter of the year, until the DVD cash from “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” and “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra” came rolling in. As you recall, Paramount also delayed the wide-release of “The Lovely Bones” by a full month and delayed the wide release of “Up in the Air” from Thanksgiving weekend until Christmas Day. Point being, Paramount was trying to save money. Ironically, this brought about a situation where Paramount had nothing to spend money on except some little cult film that was shot on a home camcorder. As I’ve said any number of times, the huge success of “Paranormal Activity” had a lot to do with the fact that Paramount didn’t have anything else to market at the time, so they were able to devote themselves to propping up a would-be cult hit and turn it into a mainstream sensation. While Paramount looks like geniuses in hindsight (they now have a very strong and continuous slate all the way into 2011), it was strictly a decision made out of economic necessity.

Believe it or not, “Shutter Island” was the only wide release this weekend (which certainly helped boost the picture past the $25-30 million that it likely would have opened to in crowded October). The biggest limited release debut was Roman Polanski’s “The Ghost Writer,” which debuted to $179,000 on four screens (about $44,000 per screen). The well-reviewed Summit release expands next weekend to 10 new markets. Of course, this seemingly low-key political thriller somehow cost $45 million to make, so it’s going to be a long while before this one sees any real profit, barring huge business overseas. Every other limited release (“The Good Guy,” “Defendor,” “Happy Tears,” “Blood Done Sign My Name”) pretty much tanked. The rest of the news concerns holdovers, and the news was decidedly grim. When even Avatar drops 31 percent (great for any other movie, but a record weekend drop in its 10th weekend), you know it’s a bad weekend. Still, Avatar made another $16 million and has now grossed $687 million domestically. It will likely cross $700 million next weekend, the last weekend before it loses most of its 3D and all of its IMAX screens to the apparently much-anticipated “Alice in Wonderland.” It’s all downhill from there.

Last weekend’s champ, “Valentine’s Day,” proved to be a one-weekend wonder, as it plummeted 69 percent for a $17 million second weekend and an $87 million 10-day total. It will cross $100 million next weekend, but the once-assured $150 million mark will now be an uphill battle. “The Wolfman” was equally hammered, dropping 68 percent for a $9.8 million second-weekend and a 10-day total of just $50 million. Needless to say, the stupidly-expensive $150 million horror picture is in deep trouble. “Valentine’s Day” fell due to the nature of its release. It was designed to cash in on a holiday that is now over. Plus, quality-wise, it was no “He’s Just Not That Into You,” which at least tried to deal with romantic entanglements in a semi-realistic fashion. “The Wolfman” fell due to the insurmountable combination of terrible word of mouth and direct competition in the form of “Shutter Island.” Dropping 50 percent was “Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” (gosh, I’m tired of typing that gigantic title). The terrible young-adult fantasy picture grossed $15 million in its second weekend and now has amassed $58 million. At this point, $100 million is no longer in the cards.

In other news, “The Book of Eli” crossed the $90 million mark. Dear John fell another 54 percent, proving that the film was in fact heavily front-loaded. At $65 million in three weekends, it will barely surpass the $81 million domestic gross of “The Notebook.” “Crazy Heart” crossed the $20 million mark and will likely reach $30 million if Jeff Bridges wins the best-actor Oscar as expected. “Edge of Darkness” crossed the $40 million mark, which still makes this Mel Gibson’s lowest-grossing starring vehicle in 17 years (“The Man Without a Face” grossed $24 million back in 1993). “Up in the Air” is at $80.9 million, which means it’s the second-highest grossing film of all time never to make the top five in any given weekend. “IMAX: Everest” grossed $87 million, which makes it the top-grossing film to never reach No. 5 or even 10th place in a weekend. Finally, the main casualty of Paramount’s date-switching, “The Lovely Bones,” sits with just $43 million. Had the film opened fresh on Dec. 12, 2009, it likely would have opened better and lasted longer, but it instead spent a month in three-screen limited release, where it weathered bad reviews, poor word of mouth and the domination of “Avatar.”

That’s it for this weekend. Join us next weekend when Kevin Smith’s ode to ’80s cop flicks, “Cop Out,” tries to avoid playing like every other Kevin Smith movie ($8-11 million opening, $25-30 million finish). Overture releases “The Crazies,” yet another remake of a mostly forgotten horror flick. In limited release, the big player is “The Yellow Handkerchief,” which stars William Hurt, Kristen Stewart and Maria Bello. God help any junketeer who dares to ask William Hurt a question about “Twilight” …

 

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Box office report: “Dear John” takes down “Avatar”

But don't believe the chicks-vs.-Cameron hype. Plus: "From Paris" and "Edge of Darkness," official bombs

Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried in "Dear John"

“Dear John” opened at No. 1 this weekend, with a stellar $32.4 million debut weekend. That gives the picture a mediocre 2.3x weekend multiplier, but the first three days alone puts the picture well ahead of its $25 million budget. More importantly, this is the biggest weekend in Super Bowl weekend history, as well as the biggest opening weekend of all-time for a pure romantic drama. The film played to an 84 percent female crowd, and 64 percent of the audience was under 21. This is the first real test of opening weekend mettle for Amanda Seyfried and Channing Tatum, and both passed with flying colors. Of course, this number raises new questions about how much credit Tatum deserved for the $54.7 million debut of “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra.” Conversely, as I mentioned last September, one wonders how much better “Jennifer’s Body” could have opened had the marketing focused even a little on co-star Seyfried and not just Megan Fox. This also makes Nicholas Sparks the first brand-name author since the mid-’90s heyday of Michael Crichton, Stephen King and John Grisham. Regardless, this is a smashing debut and should weather the storm of “Valentine’s Day: The Movie” as this far more serious love story will prove solid counter-programming to the overtly comedic all-star mush-fest (or as I’ve heard the film called: “Garry Marshall Calls in All His Favors Before He Dies: The Movie”).

Yes, yes, “Dear John” dethroned “Avatar” at the top of the box office over Super Bowl weekend. Wow… a film’s opening weekend managed to exceed another film’s eighth weekend. I got into this in some detail on my Open Salon blog over the weekend, but I personally think that the whole ‘”Dear John” beat “Avatar”‘ story is relatively pointless. And I certainly enjoy the irony of pundits jumping up and down over the fact that a very female-driven film defeated another film that itself was playing very well for women. “Avatar” writer/director James Cameron is a man. “Dear John” author Nicolas Sparks and director Lasse Hallström are also men. Both films involve (to differing degrees of emphasis) romantic drama in the shadow of war. Both films involve handsome but somewhat bland male leads (Sam Worthington and Channing Tatum) being out-acted and generally outclassed by their female partners (Zoe Saldana and Amanda Seyfried). Trying to spin the weekend’s box office as the girls smacking down the boys on Super Bowl weekend is not only relatively false, but awfully condescending and sexist to boot. It’s basically saying: Wow, a “girl movie” was able to compete in a male dominated marketplace! That’s so shocking! No one could have predicted that because girl movies are lame! Besides, we all know that Channing Tatum will walk away with the lion’s share of the credit, just as the media bent over backwards to give Ryan Reynolds credit for “The Proposal.” Tatum will get his pick of franchises, while Seyfried will get to choose between being the token love interest/damsel in distress in one of said franchises or starring in another installment of “I’m Nothing Without a Man.”

But weep not for James Cameron, for “Avatar” still pulled in another $23.6 million. Having crossed the $600 million mark and overtaken “Titanic” as the top domestic grosser of all time, “Avatar” now sits with a massive $630 million domestic gross. The film had its second-biggest weekend plunge yet, dropping a whole 24 percent in weekend eight. Still, the comparatively large drop lends credence to the idea that the film was playing very well with females, hence it was hurt by direct demo competition. The film’s new worldwide total is a whopping $2.204 billion, or just short of the magic $2.39 billion mark (at which point it will have doubled the worldwide take of every other film ever made save “Titanic”). I suppose if you wanted to nitpick, you could say that “Avatar” was number one for a mere seven weekends while “Titanic” was number one for 15 weekends. As many of you probably recall, “Titanic” was No. 1 all the way up until April 3, when it was dethroned by “Lost in Space” (quick — what are the two connections between “Lost in Space” and “Dear John”?). Like “Avatar’s” close calls with “Sherlock Holmes” and “The Book of Eli,” “Titanic” actually lost the Friday race three times during its spree, to “U.S. Marshals,” “The Man in the Iron Mask” and the re-release of “Grease,” respectively.

It now shares its top in the top 10 for consecutive No. 1 weekends with “Ghostbusters” and “On Golden Pond,” and shares the No. 12 spot for total number one weekends with the Henry Fonda melodrama. Slightly more troubling (relative to a picture that’s already the biggest moneymaker of all time) is that “Avatar” just barely beat “Titanic’s” $23 million record for the biggest eighth weekend. By next weekend, barring a miracle, “Avatar” will likely start grossing less on a weekend-to-weekend basis than “Titanic” (the doomed ocean romancer actually went up 22 percent for a $28 million “Valentine’s Day”-infused eighth weekend). Still, the movie is going to take a huge hit on March 5 anyway, when it loses its IMAX and many of its 3D screens to Tim Burton’s “Return to Oz,” I mean “Alice in Wonderland.” The goal from here on out is to cross the fabled $700 million mark and try for $2.5 billion worldwide before all is said and done. Point being, “Avatar” may have lost its No. 1 weekend ranking, but the phenomenon is still ‘king of the world’ for all intents and purposes.

Third place went to the horribly marketed “From Paris With Love.” The John Travolta/Jonathan Rhys Meyers action vehicle attempted to replicate the Super Bowl opening of “Taken” (same director), but Lionsgate forgot that 20th Century Fox did a bang-up job marketing the Liam Neeson vehicle, with a tense and provocative teaser that gave away almost nothing from the film’s second and third acts. Lionsgate released a flurry of confused and off-putting trailers (John Travolta is: the Ugly American!) that couldn’t decide whether to sell the ultra-violence or the comedy. Frankly the earlier film benefited just a touch from the widespread availability of DVD-quality bootlegs a month prior to the U.S. release. Since the film played a little older than the normal downloading crowd, the youngsters had a month to tell their parents that grown-up star Liam Neeson’s new action picture was all kinds of bad-ass. So “Taken” opened with $24.7 million while “From Paris With Love” opened with just $8.1 million. To quote Lionsgate’s flagship character, “game over.”

Martin Campbell’s “Edge of Darkness” plunged a disturbing 59 percent in weekend two, meaning that it won’t come close to its $80 million production budget. I finally saw the picture and it’s better than I expected (the second half is awfully strong). But it’s more a portrait of wrenching grief than an action picture or even a thriller. Point being, the ads tried to sell it as a hard action thriller and now everybody knows otherwise. Its second weekend was $7 million and the film now sits at $29 million. When all is said and done, this will be Mel Gibson’s lowest-grossing vehicle since his directorial debut, “The Man Without a Face” (the dark, character-driven drama grossed $24 million in summer 1993). Oh well, better luck next time, Campbell and Gibson. “The Tooth Fairy” dropped 35 percent and now sits with $34 million, as does “Legion.” Last weekend’s other opener, “When in Rome,” fell 55 percent, leaving its 10-day total at $20 million. “The Book of Eli” crossed the $80 million mark, although $100 million may be out of reach. Still, as Denzel Washington vehicles go, this one ranks sixth at $82 million. Next on the list is the $88 million gross of “Inside Man” and the $91 million take of “Crimson Tide,” both of which are approachable. Oh, and “Sherlock Holmes” finally crossed the $200 million mark, so we’ll see a sequel in the next couple years.

The biggest beneficiary of Oscar nominations was “Crazy Heart,” which capitalized on last week’s nominations for stars Jeff Bridges (the likely winner for Best Actor) and Maggie Gyllenhaal by expanding to 819 screens. I still contend that opening this acclaimed country-music drama on Super Bowl weekend may have hindered the potential of the film’s wide release opening, but it still pulled in a decent $3.6 million, which leaves the $8 million picture with $11 million and a month to play wide before the awards are given out. The rest of the Oscar field was as expected. The more mainstream nominees (“Up in the Air,” “The Blind Side,” “Avatar,” “The Lovely Bones,” etc) were relatively unaffected. Many of the nominees are already on DVD (“A Serious Man,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Up,” “The Hurt Locker,” “District 9,” etc.). But those smallish films that could be helped (“An Education,” “Precious,” “The Last Station”) generally received relatively large upswings at least in terms of pure weekend-to-weekend percentage changes.

Finally, there were a bazillion limited-release openings this weekend, and none of them particularly impressed. Of note, “The Red Riding Trilogy” and “Terribly Happy” did $15,000 and $11,000 on their respective single screens while “Frozen” and “District 13: Ultimatum” did a whopping $1,200 per in their respective 106 and nine-screen debuts. That’s about all the news for this weekend. Join us around Monday evening for a holiday wrap-up of the President’s Day long weekend, where the holdovers face off against three major new releases. Joe Johnston’s delayed and much-fussed-over “The Wolfman” opens against “Valentine’s Day.” Plus Chris Columbus, the man who cast the Harry Potter series, attempts to launch a new young-adult fantasy franchise with “Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief.”

 

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