Obama and Clinton plan to cool it

Perhaps most important, both Clinton and Obama have said they will bring urgency from the very top of their administrations to the enormous energy problem. Clinton promises:

"She will create a National Energy Council modeled on the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. This new body will bring together disparate agencies in the federal government to put everyone on the same page and ensure that we all have the same priorities -- much like the National Economic Council does for the economy. The National Energy Council would be headed by a National Energy Advisor who reports directly to the President, and who is charged with coordinating the implementation of Hilary's energy and climate agenda across the Executive Branch."

Obama said in early February he would start working on a global climate effort as soon as he becomes the Democratic nominee (which at the time he probably thought would have happened already): "I've been in conversations with former Vice President (Al) Gore repeatedly, and his recommendation, which I think is sound, is that you can't wait until you are sworn into office to get started ... I think we need to start reaching out to other countries ahead of time, not because I'm presumptuous, but because there's such a sense of urgency about this."

Clinton and Obama understand this is not just about the environment, but also about jobs. Both have a clean-energy jobs training program. As Clinton describes hers, "The program would target at-risk youth, veterans, displaced workers, and would teach them skills to install and maintain energy efficiency and renewable energy technology." These are the high-wage jobs of the future. She believes "we have the potential to unleash a wave of private sector innovation and create at least 5 million new jobs from clean energy over the next decade." She sponsored a clean energy jobs provision that was included in the 2007 Energy Bill.

Yes, the plans are similar and comprehensive. I believe that, if enacted in total, they would work, would cut emissions sharply, while generating millions of new jobs and giving the United States leadership in what will certainly be the biggest industry of this century: GHG-reducing technologies.

Plans are, however, easy to write, at least for Democratic candidates. The two bigger questions are about leadership: Could Clinton or Obama get their plans enacted by Congress? Could they get developing countries, particularly China, to agree to GHG controls?

Each of these challenges is so huge and so unique, there is little in the record of either candidate that lets us know which is more likely to succeed. McCain failed twice in the Senate to win a majority for his climate bill, let alone earn the 60 votes needed to beat a filibuster by his Republican colleagues. In fact, the second time he tried, in 2005, he mustered only 38 votes, five fewer than he had the first time.

The first challenge is that conservatives are dead-set against virtually every single one of the strategies needed to fight global warming. They don't like the mandatory cap-and-trade system. McCain himself is telling journalists his mandatory program isn't a mandate, and asking them not to use the word. Conservatives don't even like long-standing clean energy tax credits, and McCain said he would vote against them. And they don't like funding for clean energy research and development and deployment programs, which have been gutted by conservatives going back to President Reagan and the Gingrich Congress, and including President Bush, who has tried to shut down many of the best federal programs. But they do like tax breaks for big oil, even when the oil companies are swimming in $123 billion in profits and record high oil prices.

That is why the U.S., once the world leader in all clean energy industries, is now a laggard in most of them. That is why China is projected to be the top producer of both solar photovoltaic cells and wind turbines by 2010. If you're wondering how the U.S. could generate millions of new jobs and make deep reductions in GHG emissions, while rejecting federal energy policies that have worked for every other country in the world -- well, you'll have to ask that question of Sen. McCain yourself, since I'm sure the traditional media won't.

So who would be better, Clinton or Obama, at bringing conservatives along? I suppose that depends on whether you think we need a fighter or an inspirer to do this next-to-impossible task. My guess is you need both. And many of the most important phone calls for the next president will be to members of Congress to secure their vote.

The second great climate challenge is getting China to agree to cap emissions by 2020. Given its rapacious pace of building coal plants -- a staggering 200,000 megawatts of fossil-fuel-based generating capacity (mostly coal) in the past two years alone -- China is sending a clear signal to the world that it cares as much about climate as the Bush administration. The only way to avoid catastrophic climate change is if the next president 1) gets a strong U.S. climate agreement in his or her first year to show the rest of the world we are serious about this problem; 2) makes an international treaty that includes China and India their top international priority in their first term.

I do think it matters to China a great deal that it become the world leader in clean technology. So if we embrace most of the Clinton and Obama strategies, we will be sending a clear signal to the world that we aim to pursue leadership in all the key technologies. That would make it more likely that China will get onboard. The nations that adopt a strong emissions reduction strategy must also establish a border adjustment for imported goods, so that countries like China won't perceive an economic advantage by continuing to be polluters.

None of this will be easy. Again, it will probably require a fighter and an inspirer. Someone who can make tough calls to foreign and domestic leaders. A president (and senior staff) who believes in the crucial role of government in restoring U.S. leadership in clean energy development, deployment and job creation. On these, the most important of issues, I think Clinton or Obama -- not McCain -- will make all the necessary calls.