JOE McDONALD

China rolls out mini-stimulus to fight slump

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BEIJING (AP) — China is rolling out a mini-stimulus to fight its economic slump but is moving cautiously after its massive response to the 2008 global crisis left a painful hangover of inflation and debt.

Beijing has yet to announce a total price tag. But measures announced piecemeal in recent weeks include 66 billion yuan ($10 billion) to build affordable housing and 26.5 billion yuan to subsidize sales of energy-efficient appliances.

That limited size should make the effort more manageable than the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) avalanche of spending and bank loans in 2008. But its power to boost growth in a $2.5 trillion economy also will be smaller.

Still, analysts say the measures should be enough to drive a rebound and keep growth for the year at or slightly above 8 percent.

“I do think it will make a big difference,” said Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang.

“Second-half GDP growth will be better than the first half, to a large extent driven by this support,” Zhang said. “Without it, I think growth probably would trend down.”

After spending two years enforcing lending and investment curbs to cool inflation and an overheated economy, communist leaders began gradually reversing course in December following a plunge in demand for China’s exports.

Their efforts took on more urgency after economic growth plunged to a nearly three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter and factory output in April grew at its lowest rate since the 2008 crisis. Analysts say growth should slow further in the current quarter.

The Cabinet publicly confirmed its strategic shift last week, promising to “give more priority to growth.”

The impact should start to show up in stronger growth in August or September, according to Standard Chartered economists Stephen Green, Li Wei and Lan Shen.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are forecasting 8.2 percent growth this year. Some private sector analysts lowered their own growth targets following April’s weak data but to a still-robust range of 8 to 9 percent — far above the low single-digit levels of the United States, Europe and Japan. The government’s official target is 7.5 percent.

The appliance subsidies might help to spur consumer purchases but measures announced so far rely heavily on more spending on building airports and other public works and encouraging private sector investment.

Construction spending pumps money into the economy quickly but raises the risk of setting back the government’s longer-term effort to reduce China’s heavy reliance on investment to drive growth. Easing investment curbs also threatens to add to a glut of unneeded mills and factories in steel and other industries.

The government has approved a new subway project for the eastern city of Nanjing and new airport projects in six provinces and regions, according to Chinese media. News reports say the approval process for private sector investment has speeded up.

Dozens of new wind, hydro and other renewable power projects have been approved by the country’s planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Fuzhou in the southeast are speeding up construction of expressways and subway projects. Other cities have received approval to upgrade hospitals, water treatment and other public facilities.

The NDRC has approved three major new steel projects, including a 64 billion yuan ($10 billion) investment by Baosteel Group, China’s biggest steel producer.

A top economic planner, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, called in March for a campaign to boost exports by 10 percent this year, according to news reports. That would be well above the zero to low single-digit growth forecast by some analysts.

The huge stimulus in response to the 2008 crisis helped China rebound quickly and pushed economic growth to almost 11 percent in 2010. But it also fueled inflation and a bout of stock market and real estate speculation.

Inflation spiked to a 37-month high of 6.5 percent last July, with food prices surging 14.8 percent, before subsiding to 3.4 percent in April, below the government’s 4 percent target for the year.

Local governments that splurged on building new roads, bridges, schools and other public works were left with heavy debts to state banks that some may be unable to repay.

This year, Beijing is imposing more control, requiring central government approval for major investments and calling for projects to have long-term benefits.

“I think the government understands the undesirable side effects, and this time around they will try to stabilize growth around 8 percent,” said Zhang. “I think they want to avoid overshooting.”

Group: Companies might cut China investment

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BEIJING (AP) — Frustrated by China’s market barriers, European companies might shift future investment to other economies, a business group said Tuesday, in an unusually pointed warning about a possible backlash over Beijing’s trade policies.

Beijing faces a flurry of complaints by the European Union, the United States and other nations that it is violating its trade commitments by protecting or subsidizing its companies in industries from steel to solar power. With a weak global economy threatening to push up unemployment, Washington and other governments face political pressure to respond.

Half of some 557 European companies that responded to a survey say regulatory barriers have limited their business opportunities and hurt profits, according to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. One in five companies said that might prompt them to shift future investment to other economies.

“Companies feel as if they missed business opportunities, and if this continues, they might consider to shift their business operations outside of China,” the group’s president, Davide Cucino, said at a news conference.

Cucino said that if he were a Chinese official, “I would think this sounds alarming.”

He appealed to Chinese authorities to give foreign companies access to banking, insurance and a wide array of other “strategic industries” that are dominated by state enterprises.

Foreign business groups have complained for years that Beijing improperly favors Chinese enterprises but global companies have continued to invest and are reluctant to talk publicly about their frustrations for fear of angering communist authorities. Thursday’s report was unusually explicit in saying companies’ frustration has grown so severe that they might scale back investment plans.

The potential threat to investment could be a setback to Chinese government efforts to reverse a sharp economic downturn. The Cabinet said last week it wants more private sector spending but gave no indication whether foreign companies would be eligible for tax cuts and other proposed incentives.

Tensions over Beijing’s industrial policies have led to a volley of trade complaints.

The U.S. Commerce Department concluded this month that Chinese manufacturers were selling solar power equipment below fair value and proposed imposing a 31 percent tariff. Beijing fired back with a ruling by its Commerce Ministry that Washington’s support for six renewable energy projects in the United States violated free-trade commitments.

On Friday, Beijing filed a case with the World Trade Organization in Geneva challenging U.S. anti-dumping and other measures against 22 types of Chinese goods.

As for Europe, the EU is preparing to launch a trade case against Beijing after concluding Chinese telecoms equipment producers receive improper subsidies, the Financial Times newspaper reported last week.

Chinese leaders including Premier Wen Jiabao, the top economic official, have publicly assured foreign companies they are welcome in China and have changed some rules that favored local competitors. But in many areas, foreign companies complain they are blocked by Beijing’s efforts to nurture Chinese industry.

A March report by the American Chamber of Commerce cited problems including restrictions on investment in some areas and pressure for foreign companies to hand over technology to Chinese partners.

Cucino noted that while Wen and other top leaders have promising to open more areas of the economy to foreign companies, the Finance Ministry last week ordered local agencies to buy Chinese goods.

Companies have to look “not to the statement but to the facts,” Cucino said.

Cucino also appealed to Chinese authorities to treat foreign companies equally with state-owned Chinese enterprises and to promote free-market competition.

The World Bank and private sector analysts have urged similar steps, warning that they are needed to keep China’s economy growing.

The Cabinet said last week it would give private investors more access to China’s energy and other government-dominated industries, but Cucino said European companies have yet to see any sign they might benefit from that.

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European Union Chamber of Commerce in China: www.euccc.com.cn

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China rules US clean energy support improper

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BEIJING (AP) — China’s Commerce Ministry issued a ruling Thursday that U.S. government support for six renewable energy projects violated free-trade rules, the latest volley in a widening conflict over clean power.

The United States and China, the world’s two biggest energy users, have pledged to work together to develop renewable sources. But they accuse each other of improperly subsidizing or protecting their manufacturers.

The Commerce Ministry’s announcement of the results of an investigation launched in November gave no indication whether Beijing might try to impose punitive measures. Ministry spokespeople did not respond to requests by phone and fax for more details.

The investigation was launched two weeks after Washington announced an antidumping probe of Chinese solar power equipment. The ruling came after the U.S. Commerce Department concluded last week that Chinese manufacturers were selling solar cells and panels at improperly low prices and proposed raising tariffs.

Both governments see renewable energy as a promising source of high-tech jobs, a sensitive issue at a time of weak global demand. The United States is trying to boost technology exports to revive economic growth and cut high unemployment.

The three-sentence Commerce Ministry statement said its investigation concluded U.S. government support for six projects violated WTO subsidy regulations.

It gave no details but the ministry said earlier the investigation would cover wind, solar, hydro and other renewable energy policies and include six projects in Washington, Massachusetts, Ohio, New Jersey and California.

The earlier announcement said the investigation was launched at the request of Chinese manufacturers.

Business groups complain Beijing appears to be trying to limit foreign access to its fast-growing renewable energy market with proposals to limit ownership or require companies to transfer technology to Chinese partners.

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Chinese Ministry of Commerce (in Chinese): www.mofcom.gov.cn

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World Bank says Europe, US might hurt Asian growth

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World Bank says Europe, US might hurt Asian growthA Chinese man smokes at the entrance to an underpass in Beijing, China, Tuesday, May 22, 2012. East Asia's developing economies need to boost domestic demand to offset weak trade due to China's slowdown, a sluggish U.S. recovery and European debt problems, the World Bank said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)(Credit: Ng Han Guan)

BEIJING (AP) — East Asia’s developing economies could face a shock from China’s slowdown and need to boost domestic demand to offset weak exports due to a sluggish U.S. recovery and Europe’s debt crisis, the World Bank said Wednesday.

Overall growth for East Asian economies should decline from last year’s 8.2 percent to a still-robust 7.6 percent, the bank said. The group includes China, South Korea and Southeast Asia and excludes Japan.

“As external demand is likely to remain weak, countries in developing East Asia and Pacific need to rely less on exports and more on domestic demand to maintain high growth,” the bank said.

Excluding China, regional growth should accelerate from last year’s 4.3 percent to 5.2 percent, propelled by Thailand’s rebound from flooding, the bank said in its “East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.”

China’s rapid growth fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter’s 8.9 percent due to anemic global demand and government controls imposed to cool overheating and inflation. Growth in factory output in April plunged to its lowest level since the 2008 global crisis, jarring hopes the slowdown has bottomed out.

The World Bank left its growth forecast for China unchanged at 8.2 percent and said that should rise to 8.6 percent in 2013. Some private sector analysts have trimmed their outlooks, though to still-healthy levels of about 8 to 9 percent.

Asian commodities suppliers such as Indonesia that have benefited from China’s boom are especially vulnerable to a slowdown, which could “trigger an unexpected drop in commodity prices,” the bank said.

Many countries are trying to reduce reliance on trade but need to do more, the bank said.

“Some countries will need to stimulate household consumption,” said the report’s chief author, World Bank economist Bryce Quillin, in a statement. He said others can pump money into their economies through spending on building public works.

In China, authorities responded to the slump in global demand late last year by reversing course after spending two years tightening lending and investment curbs to cool inflation and steer growth to a manageable level.

Analysts expect Beijing to move cautiously after its huge stimulus in response to the 2008 crisis fueled inflation and a wasteful building boom.

On Sunday, Premier Wen Jiabao, China’s top economic official, promised to give “more priority” to boosting growth but gave no indication what Beijing might do. The government has promised more bank lending for small businesses but says controls imposed to cool surging housing costs will stay in place.

The region also is vulnerable to shocks from Europe’s debt crisis, the World Bank said.

It said the European Union, along with the United States and Japan, accounts for more than 40 percent of regional exports.

“Prospects for East Asia are, as in other developing regions, weighed down by the persistent tepid recovery of the U.S. and, most particularly, the uncertainty in Europe,” the bank said.

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Online:

World Bank: http://www.worldbank.org

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US presses China over currency in economy talks

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BEIJING (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged Beijing to let its tightly controlled currency rise in value amid strains over trade and industrial policy at a high-level economic dialogue Thursday.

Beijing has allowed the yuan to rise gradually but Washington and other trading partners complain it still is undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage and hurting foreign competitors. Some American lawmakers are calling for punitive tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing fails to act faster.

Washington considers “particularly important” the promise of a stronger yuan in China’s latest five-year economic development plan, Geithner said in prepared remarks for the opening of the two days of talks.

In a speech last month, Geithner complained an undervalued yuan was a source of “unfair competition” and called for a “stronger, more market-determined” exchange rate. He said that would help the global economy.

Chinese officials have said, however, that future gains by the yuan are likely to be limited, setting up a possible clash with Washington. Premier Wen Jiabao said in March the currency might have reached an “equilibrium exchange rate.”

Geithner also said Washington supports China’s efforts to overhaul its financial system to increase support for private enterprise and reduce special treatment for government-owned companies.

In his speech last month, the secretary complained that Beijing’s support for state industry through low-cost access to loans, land and resources “hurts U.S. companies and workers who compete with these firms.”

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China’s dream of electric car leadership elusive

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China's dream of electric car leadership elusiveA woman demonstrates BYD's new charging and discharging technology on a BYD e6 electric car during the 2012 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition in Beijing, China, Monday, April 23, 2012. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)(Credit: AP)

BEIJING (AP) — China’s leaders are finding it’s a lot tougher to create a world-beating electric car industry than they hoped.

In 2009, they announced bold plans to cash in on demand for clean vehicles by making China a global power in electric car manufacturing. They pledged billions of dollars for research and called for annual sales of 500,000 cars by 2015.

Today, Beijing is scaling back its ambitions, chastened by technological hurdles and lack of buyer interest. Developers have yet to achieve breakthroughs and will be lucky to sell 2,000 cars this year, mostly taxis. The government has hedged its bets by broadening the industry’s official goals to include cleaner gasoline engines.

The government has repeatedly changed targets because the “technology isn’t advancing quite as fast as people had hoped,” said Joe Hinrichs, Ford Motor Co.’s president for Asia, at this week’s Beijing auto show.

The government has yet to lower sales goals that ramp up to 5 million vehicles a year by 2020. But officials including Premier Wen Jiabao started acknowledging last year that progress was slow and developers need to improve quality instead of rushing models to market.

About 13,000 all-electric and other alternative energy vehicles are being tested in 25 cities, but that is “still small despite government subsidies,” the deputy director of the Ministry of Science and Technology’s electric vehicle bureau, Zhen Zijian, said in March, according to the business magazine Caixin.

China’s most advanced developer, BYD Co., in which American investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Corp. owns a 10 percent stake, says its electric e6 sedan can travel 300 kilometers (190 miles) on a charge, similar to Western models.

BYD has sold 300 taxis and 200 electric buses used in the southern city of Shenzhen, a center for business and technology near Hong Kong, according to Henry Li, general manager of its export division. BYD has invested heavily in research and has thousands of engineers working on battery and motor technology.

“We think our EV (electric vehicle) platform is one of the most advanced in the world, and our capability for mass production is quite high,” Li said.

But as for the rest of the industry, “there are not many manufacturers with really reliable or commercialized products,” he said.

Chinese leaders saw electric cars as a way to curb demand for imported oil, which they regard as a strategic danger, and to help transform China from a low-cost factory into a creator of profitable technology.

“China has run up against the same technical obstacles as anyone else,” said Michael Dunne, president of Dunne & Co. Ltd., a Hong Kong-based industry researcher.

“They said: Hold on, maybe we shouldn’t marry ourselves to electrics just yet. Let’s look at the alternatives. Maybe we have to take an incremental approach, just like everyone else,” Dunne said.

Wary consumers have been put off by news reports of batteries in Chinese-made cars catching fire. A lack of charging stations is causing “range anxiety” — fears a car might run out of power, leaving the driver stranded.

Under the Communist Party’s latest five-year development plan for China’s economy, issued in 2011, the government has released guidelines for other industries but not for alternative vehicles — a possible sign officials have gone back to the drawing board.

Developers were encouraged last week by a Cabinet statement that repeated support for electric vehicles. But it also called for work on developing non-plug-in hybrids and energy-saving internal combustion engines.

“The momentum has been slowed down,” said John Zeng, chief of Asian forecasting for LMC Automotive, a research firm.

“They don’t expect the EV or hybrid can be the only way for China to maintain its future sustainable mobility,” Zeng said. “They think they need multiple initiatives to achieve that target.”

Plus, gasoline and diesel technologies are advancing, luring consumers with the promise of lower operating costs.

The government launched research into electric, fuel cell and other alternative power sources in 2001. It followed in 2004 with a plan to create a competitive electric car and promised financial support to developers.

Automakers responded to Beijing’s enthusiasm. General Motors Co. announced plans in 2007 for a $250 million alternative fuel research center in Shanghai. Germany’s Daimler AG teamed up with BYD to create an electric car joint venture dubbed Denza. They unveiled a display version of its first model this week at the Beijing auto show.

China’s initiative prompted some in the United States and Europe to worry they might fall behind in a key technology. An assistant U.S. energy secretary, David Sandalow, visited Beijing in 2009 and warned China had “the potential to be ahead” if the United States failed to invest in development.

Beijing’s 2009 plan called for world-class electric cars by this year, followed by trucks and buses. To encourage buyers, the government started paying buyers rebates of up to 60,000 yuan ($8,800) per car the following year in five cities including Shanghai.

But Wen, China’s top economic official, expressed frustration at the slow pace of development in an article published last July.

“We are no match for developed countries in technology,” Wen wrote in Qiushi, the ruling party’s main theoretical journal.

“We’ve only just begun in electric car development,” the premier wrote. Wen said Chinese leaders shared in the blame: “We have not set clear enough goals of which way to go.”

Beijing strained relations with the United States and other trading partners by rolling out rules limiting access to its auto market unless foreign developers shared technology to Chinese partners.

Daimler has said it formed its venture with BYD not due to official pressure but because it wanted to create a low-cost brand for China. Daimler said their car, due to go on sale next year, should have a range of 200-250 kilometers (125-155 miles) on one charge.

Other manufacturers such as Nissan Motor Co., maker of the electric Leaf, and General Motors Co. have chosen to pay the higher taxes required to import electric and hybrid vehicles rather than disclose expensive know-how to Chinese partners that might become rivals.

GM is taking orders for its all-electric Volt in China but expects limited sales due to a relatively high price of 498,000 yuan ($79,000).

“It’s expensive in China at the moment because of import duties, and we don’t qualify for incentives,” said Kevin Wale, president of GM China. “But we still think it’s important that we demonstrate its capabilities here in China.”

Chinese producers have unveiled a series of display models of electric and hybrid cars, some sprouting tiny solar panels or wind turbines for recharging, though most say they are not ready for mass-market sales.

LMC Automotive’s Zeng said that aside from BYD, which has spent heavily on development, most have done only the minimum required to qualify for research grants.

“I think it’s more to create a PR bubble or fight for government subsidies,” he said.

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