JOE McDONALD
China rolls out mini-stimulus to fight slump
BEIJING (AP) — China is rolling out a mini-stimulus to fight its economic slump but is moving cautiously after its massive response to the 2008 global crisis left a painful hangover of inflation and debt.
Beijing has yet to announce a total price tag. But measures announced piecemeal in recent weeks include 66 billion yuan ($10 billion) to build affordable housing and 26.5 billion yuan to subsidize sales of energy-efficient appliances.
That limited size should make the effort more manageable than the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) avalanche of spending and bank loans in 2008. But its power to boost growth in a $2.5 trillion economy also will be smaller.
Still, analysts say the measures should be enough to drive a rebound and keep growth for the year at or slightly above 8 percent.
“I do think it will make a big difference,” said Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang.
“Second-half GDP growth will be better than the first half, to a large extent driven by this support,” Zhang said. “Without it, I think growth probably would trend down.”
After spending two years enforcing lending and investment curbs to cool inflation and an overheated economy, communist leaders began gradually reversing course in December following a plunge in demand for China’s exports.
Their efforts took on more urgency after economic growth plunged to a nearly three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter and factory output in April grew at its lowest rate since the 2008 crisis. Analysts say growth should slow further in the current quarter.
The Cabinet publicly confirmed its strategic shift last week, promising to “give more priority to growth.”
The impact should start to show up in stronger growth in August or September, according to Standard Chartered economists Stephen Green, Li Wei and Lan Shen.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are forecasting 8.2 percent growth this year. Some private sector analysts lowered their own growth targets following April’s weak data but to a still-robust range of 8 to 9 percent — far above the low single-digit levels of the United States, Europe and Japan. The government’s official target is 7.5 percent.
The appliance subsidies might help to spur consumer purchases but measures announced so far rely heavily on more spending on building airports and other public works and encouraging private sector investment.
Construction spending pumps money into the economy quickly but raises the risk of setting back the government’s longer-term effort to reduce China’s heavy reliance on investment to drive growth. Easing investment curbs also threatens to add to a glut of unneeded mills and factories in steel and other industries.
The government has approved a new subway project for the eastern city of Nanjing and new airport projects in six provinces and regions, according to Chinese media. News reports say the approval process for private sector investment has speeded up.
Dozens of new wind, hydro and other renewable power projects have been approved by the country’s planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.
Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Fuzhou in the southeast are speeding up construction of expressways and subway projects. Other cities have received approval to upgrade hospitals, water treatment and other public facilities.
The NDRC has approved three major new steel projects, including a 64 billion yuan ($10 billion) investment by Baosteel Group, China’s biggest steel producer.
A top economic planner, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, called in March for a campaign to boost exports by 10 percent this year, according to news reports. That would be well above the zero to low single-digit growth forecast by some analysts.
The huge stimulus in response to the 2008 crisis helped China rebound quickly and pushed economic growth to almost 11 percent in 2010. But it also fueled inflation and a bout of stock market and real estate speculation.
Inflation spiked to a 37-month high of 6.5 percent last July, with food prices surging 14.8 percent, before subsiding to 3.4 percent in April, below the government’s 4 percent target for the year.
Local governments that splurged on building new roads, bridges, schools and other public works were left with heavy debts to state banks that some may be unable to repay.
This year, Beijing is imposing more control, requiring central government approval for major investments and calling for projects to have long-term benefits.
“I think the government understands the undesirable side effects, and this time around they will try to stabilize growth around 8 percent,” said Zhang. “I think they want to avoid overshooting.”
Group: Companies might cut China investment
BEIJING (AP) — Frustrated by China’s market barriers, European companies might shift future investment to other economies, a business group said Tuesday, in an unusually pointed warning about a possible backlash over Beijing’s trade policies.
Beijing faces a flurry of complaints by the European Union, the United States and other nations that it is violating its trade commitments by protecting or subsidizing its companies in industries from steel to solar power. With a weak global economy threatening to push up unemployment, Washington and other governments face political pressure to respond.
Continue Reading CloseChina rules US clean energy support improper
BEIJING (AP) — China’s Commerce Ministry issued a ruling Thursday that U.S. government support for six renewable energy projects violated free-trade rules, the latest volley in a widening conflict over clean power.
The United States and China, the world’s two biggest energy users, have pledged to work together to develop renewable sources. But they accuse each other of improperly subsidizing or protecting their manufacturers.
The Commerce Ministry’s announcement of the results of an investigation launched in November gave no indication whether Beijing might try to impose punitive measures. Ministry spokespeople did not respond to requests by phone and fax for more details.
Continue Reading CloseWorld Bank says Europe, US might hurt Asian growth
A Chinese man smokes at the entrance to an underpass in Beijing, China, Tuesday, May 22, 2012. East Asia's developing economies need to boost domestic demand to offset weak trade due to China's slowdown, a sluggish U.S. recovery and European debt problems, the World Bank said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)(Credit: Ng Han Guan) BEIJING (AP) — East Asia’s developing economies could face a shock from China’s slowdown and need to boost domestic demand to offset weak exports due to a sluggish U.S. recovery and Europe’s debt crisis, the World Bank said Wednesday.
Overall growth for East Asian economies should decline from last year’s 8.2 percent to a still-robust 7.6 percent, the bank said. The group includes China, South Korea and Southeast Asia and excludes Japan.
“As external demand is likely to remain weak, countries in developing East Asia and Pacific need to rely less on exports and more on domestic demand to maintain high growth,” the bank said.
Continue Reading CloseUS presses China over currency in economy talks
BEIJING (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged Beijing to let its tightly controlled currency rise in value amid strains over trade and industrial policy at a high-level economic dialogue Thursday.
Beijing has allowed the yuan to rise gradually but Washington and other trading partners complain it still is undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage and hurting foreign competitors. Some American lawmakers are calling for punitive tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing fails to act faster.
Continue Reading CloseChina’s dream of electric car leadership elusive
A woman demonstrates BYD's new charging and discharging technology on a BYD e6 electric car during the 2012 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition in Beijing, China, Monday, April 23, 2012. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)(Credit: AP) BEIJING (AP) — China’s leaders are finding it’s a lot tougher to create a world-beating electric car industry than they hoped.
In 2009, they announced bold plans to cash in on demand for clean vehicles by making China a global power in electric car manufacturing. They pledged billions of dollars for research and called for annual sales of 500,000 cars by 2015.
Today, Beijing is scaling back its ambitions, chastened by technological hurdles and lack of buyer interest. Developers have yet to achieve breakthroughs and will be lucky to sell 2,000 cars this year, mostly taxis. The government has hedged its bets by broadening the industry’s official goals to include cleaner gasoline engines.
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