Tom Delay
Left Hook: Head of Newt
Republicans are likely to depose House Speaker Newt Gingrich if the party fails to make big Congressional gains in Tuesday's election.
Amnesia is the occupational disorder of the news media. Just two months ago, mainstream pundits and analysts looked forward, with varying degrees of delight, to this week’s midterm congressional election as a debacle for the Democrats. Republican leaders and conservative columnists anticipated the same event with undisguised glee, warning that November’s bell would toll not only for the president’s party but for Bill Clinton himself.
In the uproar that followed Bill Clinton’s Aug. 17 speech about the Monica Lewinsky affair, the Democrats were widely advised to demand his resignation as the only way to avert total disaster. By his reckless behavior, the president supposedly had misled his party into permanent minority status.
The Democrats have surely paid a price for the president’s bad conduct. But if the results on Election Day are not so ruinous for them — if in fact the Republicans gain only a few seats, or actually lose a few — then who will take Clinton’s place as the national goat? Nobody has said so yet, but the correct answer is House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Already, the same right-wing extremists in the Republican caucus who tried to depose Gingrich in 1997 are laying blame on him for a disappointing election result. They attacked him furiously over the recent budget deal because its extra spending was seen as a victory for Clinton, the mortally wounded president. They were even more incensed that the budget included no tax cut for their wealthiest constituents.
Then word leaked out on Capitol Hill that a final $10 million anti-Clinton advertising blitz by the GOP had been directed by Gingrich himself. The speaker was widely quoted last April vowing, “I will never again, as long as I am Speaker, make a speech without commenting on this topic,” meaning the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. So nobody believed the denial from Republican headquarters about Gingrich’s involvement in the targeted scandal commercials. And almost everybody regards the Clinton-bashing ads as a stupid error, drawing voter attention to the Republicans’ unpopular impeachment obsession. The notion that those ads could be stealthily targeted to specific districts without drawing news coverage from a scandal-obsessed media was probably the dumbest assumption of all.
What would constitute a defeat for the Republicans in this election? The conventional wisdom suggests that the party in the White House always loses some seats in a midterm election. But how many? Amnesia afflicts the punditry on that question, too. Since World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 seats in every midterm election. But Clinton is in his second term, a different situation altogether. This year will mark only the sixth time since the Civil War that a two-term president has faced a midterm electoral verdict in his sixth year. The average loss for the president’s party in those elections has been a whopping 48 seats. The high in this century was set under Franklin Roosevelt in 1938, when the Democrats lost 71 seats, while the low was set under Ronald Reagan in 1986, when the Republicans lost only five.
“I’ve been active in politics for most of my adult life and I know that in 1986 we tied for the best record in the second term [of a two-term president's tenure] … So the Democrats would have to match the all-time best to lose five or six, and I don’t think they [can] do that,” said Gingrich last July.
Still, as far as predictions are concerned, the speaker wisely has covered his butt. Both historian and political scientist, he knows how to play the expectations game. The week before the Lewinsky scandal broke, he told his fellow Republicans that he expected an electoral gain of “between 15 and 40 seats,” a wide enough range to seem safe at the time. His deputy, John Linder, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has been equally cautious, guessing that the party would gain a minimum of 13 seats and perhaps as many as 20. By Oct. 22, Gingrich still said he believed that the Republicans could increase their majority by up to 40 seats, although he had revised his downside prediction to “about plus-10.” And on the eve of the election, Linder told CBS that he expected to gain between 10 and 15 seats, adding, “I never did believe that it was a referendum on Bill Clinton.”
Perhaps not, although the fortunes of Linder’s party seem to have declined most steeply since the House impeachment vote. But if the election doesn’t represent a popular verdict on Clinton, then it could be seen as a condemnation of Gingrich — the widely disliked villain of the Democratic campaign — and his four years in control of Congress.
Covering my own behind requires noting that the pre-election polls may be wrong. With a sufficiently low turnout, the Democrats could still lose badly.
But should the Republicans gain fewer than 10 house seats on Nov. 3, the speaker of the House would be well advised to watch his backside. His loyal friends Tom DeLay and Dick Armey, along with Louisiana Rep. Bob Livingston, have begun to line up votes to succeed him. The House backbenchers who tried to bump Gingrich off a year ago last July never really sheathed their knives.
Instead of Clinton, it may be Gingrich who is urged to resign and get out of town to save his party and himself. And when the new Congress takes office in January, the summer coup of 1997 just may be replayed as the winter putsch of 1999.
Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush." More Joe Conason.
John Edwards’ creepy mug shot
The disgraced senator flashes an unnerving grin -- just like Tom DeLay
Edwards sports a cold, dead smile in his mugshot If the pictures of Anthony Weiner and (allegedly) a sunbathing Newt Gingrich weren’t too much for you, here’s another unsettling image: CNN’s Ed Hornick has posted John Edwards’ mug shot. Edwards, who faces felony charges for allegedly using over $1 million of campaign cash to hide his extramarital affair and child, went for the unnerving smile with accompanying cold, dead eyes for his photo:
The image is reminiscent of Tom DeLay from the Republican former House majority leader’s mug shot. (DeLay was ultimately convicted on conspiracy and money-laundering charges.)
We wonder whether the smiles here are meant to convey confidence or an image of innocence. If so, neither man succeeded.
Natasha Lennard covers the Occupy movement for Salon. A British-born, Brooklyn-based journalist, she has been covering Occupy Wall Street since before the first sleeping bag was unrolled in Zuccotti Park. One of the first journalists arrested at an Occupy action, she has managed to enrage Andrew Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. You can follow her on Twitter (@natashalennard), and email her any Occupy updates/videos/ideas to natasha.lennard@gmail.com More Natasha Lennard.
Meet Patrick McHenry, the rudest, most shameless College Republican in Congress
Of course he was unfair to Elizabeth Warren: He was trained by the most cutthroat political organization around
Patrick McHenry Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Countrywide) called Elizabeth Warren a liar at the conclusion of a House Oversight subcommittee hearing that had already consisted mainly of Republican members of Congress getting very basic information about Warren’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau completely wrong.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
The end of Tom DeLay
And why he'll probably never spend a day in prison
Tom Delay On Monday, Tom DeLay was sentenced to three years in prison on two felony charges, conspiracy and money laundering, in a campaign finance corruption case that had dragged on for years.
The sentencing of DeLay, once one of the most powerful Republicans in Washington and the majority leader of the House of Representatives, was largely ignored because of the aftermath of the mass shooting in Arizona.
But it’s an extraordinary story — and one that’s not quite over. When he was indicted in Texas in 2005, DeLay’s political career sustained a fatal blow. He was forced to step down from his House leadership position and, in 2006, he resigned from Congress.
Continue Reading CloseJustin Elliott is a reporter for ProPublica. You can follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More Justin Elliott.
Tom DeLay sentenced to 3 years in prison
Former U.S. House majority leader was convicted of money laundering and conspiracy
FILE - In this Oct. 26, 2010 file photo, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay arrives at the Travis County courthouse in Austin, Texas, for jury selection in his corruption trial. Delay will be back in court on Monday, Jan. 10. 2011, for the sentencing phase of his trial after his Nov. 24 conviction on charges of money laundering and conspiracy to commit money laundering in a scheme to illegally funnel corporate money to Texas candidates in 2002. (AP Photo/Jack Plunkett, File)(Credit: AP) A judge has ordered U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to serve three years in prison for his role in a scheme to illegally funnel corporate money to Texas candidates in 2002.
The sentence comes after a jury in November convicted DeLay on charges of money laundering and conspiracy to commit money laundering. DeLay was once one of the most powerful men in U.S. politics, ascending to the No. 2 job in the House of Representatives.
The former Houston-area congressman had faced up to life in prison. His attorneys asked for probation.
Senior Judge Pat Priest issued his ruling after a brief sentencing hearing on Monday in which former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert testified on DeLay’s behalf.
Priest declined to hear testimony from the state’s only witness.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.
Jury convicts Tom DeLay in money-laundering trial
DeLay maintains his innocence and plans to appeal the verdict it took 19 hours to reach
Former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay — once one of the most powerful and feared Republicans in Congress — was convicted Wednesday on charges he illegally funneled corporate money to Texas candidates in 2002.
Jurors deliberated for 19 hours before returning guilty verdicts against DeLay on charges of money laundering and conspiracy to commit money laundering. He faces up to life in prison on the money laundering charge.
After the verdicts were read, DeLay hugged his daughter, Danielle, and his wife, Christine. His lead attorney, Dick DeGuerin, said they planned to appeal the verdict.
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