Hillary Rodham Clinton

Nabbing David Hale

Kenneth Starr's key Whitewater witness turned his government-funded loan company into an ATM machine for his politically connected friends. When the feds caught on, he tried to blame President Clinton.

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To Little Rock judge and con man David Hale, suddenly facing a federal indictment, the right-wing obsession with ruining the Clinton presidency offered an excellent opportunity to evade the consequences of his own crimes. His embezzlement of $2 million from the U.S. government didn’t trouble the Clinton-hating arch-segregationist “Justice Jim” Johnson or the gonzo conservative activists at Citizens United, who eagerly promoted Hale’s uncorroborated charge: that the president had pressured Hale to OK a fraudulent loan to Susan McDougal, the Clintons’ Whitewater partner.

But however zealous, those fringe advocates on the right couldn’t do much for Hale by themselves. The crooked judge’s gambit couldn’t succeed without attention from the national media — including a few timely phone calls from a certain well-connected reporter for the New York Times.

When a squad of FBI agents burst into the offices of Capital Management Services (CMS) in downtown Little Rock on July 21, 1993, and started carrying out boxes of files, their arrival ended several weeks of suspense for the company’s proprietor, David Hale. While sitting as a judge in the city’s municipal court, Hale had continued to operate several enterprises, the most lucrative being Capital Management Services, a private small business investment company (SBIC) that made loans backed by the U.S. Small Business Administration. With SBA funding and a license obtained in 1979, Capital Management Services was originally chartered to lend to businesses owned by minorities and other “disadvantaged” entrepreneurs. Under the Reagan administration, however, those federal requirements had been loosened to the point where virtually anybody qualified for an SBA loan-a loophole Hale exploited to the fullest advantage.

Hale’s angle was a federally subsidized variation on the classic “bust-out” scheme. In collaboration with prominent political figures and others, he had loaned millions of federal dollars to more than a dozen dummy companies he secretly owned. Having no cash flow and no assets, his companies had then defaulted on the loans after Hale siphoned off all the money. The ultimate accounting would show that he had walked away with as much as $3.4 million.

This kind of crude fraud could hardly continue undetected forever. (A rather obvious clue was that the dummy companies all listed the same address as Hale’s office.) By the end of 1992, Capital Management had drawn the scrutiny of SBA officials. Attempting to qualify for increased federal matching funds, Hale had confided to an administrator at the agency’s Washington headquarters that millions in noncash assets had been “donated” to the firm thanks to his political influence. When the SBA proposed an audit, Hale attempted to withdraw his application, which aroused immediate suspicions. As soon as SBA investigators started poring over Hale’s records, they found fraudulent entries everywhere they looked. Of fifty-seven outstanding loans on Capital Management Services’ books, thirteen had gone to dummy corporations controlled by Hale. Altogether, he’d advanced the phony companies about $2.04 million.

Perhaps the most cynical aspect of Hale’s scam was his exploitation of SBA matching funds. For every dollar of operating capital CMS came up with, the taxpayers kicked in three. Hale would finance a loan to one of his dummy companies, default on it, and then use the embezzled funds to generate more operating capital on a three-to-one basis. He repeated this pyramid scheme many times. Hale also ran various real estate and insurance frauds to raise more operating capital. One of the SBA investigators later told Senate staffers that Hale’s embezzlement scheme was the most brazen he’d encountered in his twenty-five years with the agency. The SBA’s inspector general swiftly referred the case to the FBI. No later than May 1993, Hale knew that federal officials were taking a hard look at his operation.

The FBI’s seizure of his records concluded a long and remarkable dual career for David Hale. Publicly, he was a pillar of the community; privately, he was an inveterate con artist. Though his record as a judge was undistinguished, Hale came from an old hill-country clan with a long history in state politics, and he had established himself in Little Rock at an early age. Friendly and personable, a backslapper and glad-hander, he had pledged the right fraternity at the University of Arkansas; as a young businessman he had joined the Junior Chamber of Commerce, and he was elected national president of the Jaycees in 1974.

Regardless of his family’s strong Democratic background, Hale never allowed partisan loyalties to obstruct his personal interests. He carefully cultivated the powerful, Republicans and Democrats alike. Hale was a longtime associate of Sheffield Nelson, the president’s bitterest GOP rival. Many news reports would identify him as a Clinton appointee, but in fact Hale’s judicial robes were bestowed upon him in 1981 by Governor Frank White, the Republican who had defeated Clinton’s first bid for reelection the previous year. White signed a bill creating the judgeship for Hale, including an unusual provision that permitted him to run for election to the bench after his appointed term expired, a circumstance normally prohibited by the state constitution.

The entire scope of Hale’s crimes, extending well beyond Capital Management, would not be revealed for years after the FBI raid. A few Arkansans had gotten a glimpse of Hale’s true character prior to his well-publicized disgrace. Though he professed to be a devout and happily married Baptist, Hale conducted a long-running illicit affair with his secretary. While romancing her, he managed to swindle her grandparents into signing over their family farm to him. They later sued the judge and won a $486,000 judgment. Years before Hale was caught, at least one business associate later accused of complicity in his crimes had made a trip to Washington at his own expense to warn SBA officials that Hale was corrupt. Unfortunately, those warnings were ignored. Also known as something of an eccentric, Hale was the only judge in Little Rock-his court handled misdemeanors and traffic cases-to have a bulletproof shield installed in front of the bench. Visitors were required to pass through not one but two metal detectors to enter his courtroom.

Hale would eventually proclaim on national television that he had once been a “close political friend” of Bill Clinton, at the same moment he accused the president of joining a felony conspiracy to defraud the United States government. Oddly, however, he had never donated significantly to any of Clinton’s political campaigns. And the clearest indication of Hale’s true loyalties was that in the raid’s aftermath, he immediately turned for help to Clinton’s bitterest adversaries.

To “guide him through the jungle” of federal law enforcement, Hale hired defense attorney Randy Coleman, the partner of Sheffield Nelson’s former campaign finance chairman. His new lawyer quickly ascertained from prosecutors that Hale would soon face several felony counts for a multimillion-dollar fraud against the Small Business Administration. With a federal indictment only weeks away, Coleman placed a call to William Kennedy, an attorney in the White House counsel’s office whom he had known in Little Rock.

During a brief conversation, Coleman outlined Hale’s sudden legal difficulties and added that this “might pose some problems for our mutual clients.” When Kennedy asked him to be more specific, Coleman mentioned that the Hale investigation was likely to include the president’s Whitewater partners, James and Susan McDougal, who had received loans from Capital Management Services; also likely to be caught up in the case for the same reason was Arkansas governor Jim Guy Tucker. And because of the McDougal connection to Whitewater, Coleman hinted, the Clintons themselves might fall under suspicion.

When Kennedy asked what Coleman wanted him to do, the defense lawyer replied, “Well, I don’t want you to do anything. I’m just trying to figure out where everybody is on this matter.” Two days later, Kennedy called back to learn more details. Coleman read off a list of certain Capital Management transactions that were under investigation, mentioning the $300,000 loan to Susan McDougal. Would Hale allege any “face-to-face meetings”? Kennedy wanted to know. Taking this as a reference to Bill Clinton, Coleman said he would. Kennedy didn’t press any further, and Coleman remarked that if Heidi Fleiss was the “madam to the stars,” then David Hale was the “lender to the political elite in Arkansas.” (There was some truth to this quip, except that Hale loaned much more to elite Republicans, including two former party chairmen, than to Democrats.) Thanking him for the “heads up,” Kennedy said he might get back to Coleman, but never did.

As Coleman eventually admitted in Senate testimony, he hadn’t phoned Bill Kennedy simply to chat about the Hale case. He had hoped to provoke the White House into a foolish overreaction, such as interfering with the investigation in an attempt to keep Hale quiet. “I thought if I just made a provocative phone call, who knows what might transpire? These folks over here’d shown a propensity to make an ill-advised phone call or two in times past in their travel office situation, and I could just hope maybe it might happen again.”

No “ill-advised” action was taken by anyone in the White House, however, and Coleman entered into several weeks of fitful negotiations with the newly appointed U.S. attorney in Little Rock. Paula Casey, an active Democrat and former law student of Bill Clinton’s, had just taken over the office from her Republican predecessor, Charles Banks. Coleman’s bargaining position never changed from their first meeting, and Casey found it unacceptable, not to mention audacious. In exchange for unspecified information about possible crimes by unnamed members of the “political elite of Arkansas,” Coleman said, his client should be allowed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor. That way he could retain his judicial position and law license, and stay out of jail, too.

Casey and her deputy, veteran federal prosecutor Fletcher Jackson, told Coleman that based on the evidence against Hale, they wouldn’t even consider a deal unless he agreed to plead guilty to a felony-and made a written “proffer,” in advance, of any incriminating information he possessed about others. The proffer would then be tested for its veracity before any deal was made. These conditions were simply standard law enforcement procedure in dealing with any criminal defendant, let alone a con man of Hale’s magnitude. As career Justice Department officials later testified, approving a lenient plea bargain without a proffer from Hale would have been the legal equivalent of “buying a pig in a poke.”

As Coleman’s jousting with Casey dragged on, the defense lawyer tried to create a written record that would support Hale’s demand for a special prosecutor. On September 15, he sent a blunt letter to Casey accusing her of withholding a plea agreement because of “the potential political sensitivity and fallout regarding the information which Mr. Hale could provide to the [U.S. attorney's] office.” He added vaguely that Hale’s information “would be of substantial assistance in investigating the banking and borrowing practices of…the elite political circles of the State of Arkansas, past and present.” He then asked Casey to step aside in favor of a special prosecutor.

Casey answered him by mail the following day. Hale’s veiled assertions posed no problem for her, she wrote, but his crimes were too serious to permit the free ride Coleman was demanding. Her insistence that Hale plead guilty to at least one felony count had been repeatedly rejected by his lawyer. “Therefore, our plea negotiations are at an impasse,” she concluded.

In the absence of a reasonable plea bargain and a proffer of useful testimony, Casey and her associates moved forward. On September 23, the federal grand jury in Little Rock handed up a four-count felony indictment against Hale charging him with fraud against the U.S. government.

The friend whose counsel Hale relied upon most as he faced criminal indictment wasn’t his attorney, but “Justice Jim” Johnson, the diehard segregationist and perennial Clinton nemesis. Although there was no indication that Hale shared Johnson’s extreme political outlook, their relationship went back decades. “I have known his family for three generations,” Johnson was quoted as saying in this story. “His deceased brother John was one of my strongest supporters.” He went on to say that they were so close, in fact, that during the tense summer of 1993, Hale went to live with the retired justice and his wife for a while at their farm, White Haven. From Johnson’s point of view, “David was a young man who was in some trouble, and it was because of things that he did with Bill Clinton. We wanted to see to it that they were not able to cover that up.” Telephone records show that during the months immediately following the FBI raid, Hale called Johnson’s office more than forty times.

It was under Johnson’s tutelage that Hale finally made his “proffer” about Clinton-not to the U.S. attorney, but to right-wing activists in Washington, and then to the news media. “I told him that with the influence the Clinton Administration and their friends had in the Federal court system here in Arkansas, that the only chance he had to help himself and his country was to see that all the facts were made available to the major news outlets throughout the world. I helped him get that project in motion.”

Johnson later tried to suggest that he hadn’t contacted Hale until after he read about Hale’s problems in the Arkansas newspapers, but in fact they had been in touch months earlier. He also spread misinformation about Hale’s supposed relationship with Clinton. “The Hale family,” he told the ultraconservative Washington Weekly, “was a meaningful part of the Clinton Administration when [Clinton] was Governor of Arkansas. Clinton appointed David to a municipal judgeship.” Both assertions were false. In fact, as a close observer of state politics and a Republican himself, Johnson surely knew that Hale was no friend of the Clintons. Not only were most of Hale’s business associates prominent Republicans, but he had helped manage the campaign of Clinton’s opponent, Jim Guy Tucker, in the bitter 1982 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Hard feelings persisted on both sides following that contest, to the point that Clinton and Tucker could scarcely speak of each other without snarling.

Sometime in August, Justice Jim Johnson called David Bossie, his associate from the 1992 presidential campaign, at the Citizens United office in Washington, saying he had “a friend who was in trouble.” He assured Bossie that Hale could implicate Clinton in his own financial misdeeds. Bossie promised Johnson he would call Hale, but he didn’t have to. At Johnson’s urging, Hale called Bossie instead within minutes.

For two hours, Bossie listened with mounting excitement as Hale recounted his tale of woe. He was being set up as “the fall guy” by the Clinton-appointed federal prosecutor, Paula Casey, because she didn’t want to act on his accusations against the McDougals, Tucker, and Clinton. As governor, Hale claimed, Clinton had “pressured” him in early 1986 to make an illicit $300,000 loan from Capital Management to a firm controlled by the McDougals called Master Marketing. The purpose of that loan, said Hale, was to “clean up” the Democratic “political family” in Little Rock, a reference to Clinton, the McDougals, and Tucker. On the deal’s other end, he continued, there was an inflated $825,000 Madison Guaranty real estate loan provided by McDougal, which allowed Hale to pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Later, Hale would embroider his story to include various colorful details of his alleged meetings with Clinton, including one on the steps of the Arkansas capitol and another in a trailer where McDougal kept an office, when they discussed the loan. He never would offer any specific dates, and the files seized from his office provided no support for his charges against Clinton. Lack of documentation, however, didn’t prevent Hale from telling people that damning evidence had once existed. In several interviews given during the fall of 1993, the former judge claimed that he had formerly possessed documentary evidence proving Bill Clinton’s participation in the bogus Master Marketing loan, but that federal investigators had stolen it.

“The file on the $300,000 loan was three to four inches thick when the FBI took it,” Hale eventually told an Associated Press reporter. “But when my attorney and I asked to see it a month or so later, the U.S. Attorney’s office gave us maybe an inch of stuff.” One of the supposedly purloined documents was a handwritten letter from Jim McDougal to Hale, promising that Bill Clinton would make good on the Master Marketing loan. Not that a letter from McDougal to Hale, both of whom would later be proven to have forged and altered scores of documents for their own benefit, would have established the truth of Hale’s accusations. Interestingly, however, almost none of the reporters or political operatives to whom Hale told this improbable tale chose to share it with the public.

When Assistant U.S. Attorney Fletcher Jackson was deposed on the subject of Hale’s purloined papers, he categorically denied ever seeing what he mocked as “the smoking gun letter,” and expressed doubt that it ever existed. Hale had dispatched his attorney to Little Rock FBI headquarters to fetch a copy of the letter from the file in September 1993. Asked if the lawyer had said why he wanted it, Jackson responded sardonically: “No, but hell, we both knew why he wanted the letter … It was something that might support the position that [Hale] had been taking. ‘The devil made me do all this. I was a victim of all these high-powered political types who forced me to give away all of the money which left S.B.A. and me holding the bag.’”

Hale’s account was further undermined by at least one more stark contradiction. Back in November 1989, FBI agents investigating the failure of Madison Guaranty had questioned Hale about his dealings with Jim and Susan McDougal, including the $300,000 loan. According to the agents’ official memorandum of that interview, Hale described in some detail his dealings with Jim Guy Tucker (then an attorney in private practice), both McDougals, and several others, but never mentioned Governor Bill Clinton. Nor did Clinton’s name come up when Hale testified at McDougal’s 1990 trial, which ended in an acquittal. Such exculpatory facts were routinely omitted from the news accounts of Hale’s sensational allegations against the president.
Randy Coleman’s defense strategy was to launch his client’s story into print and onto the airwaves, even as he stubbornly rejected any compromise with Paula Casey. It appeared to many as if Coleman and his client-with the help of Brown, Bossie, and Johnson-wanted to create a public uproar concerning Whitewater, so they might bludgeon Casey into reconsidering a lenient plea bargain or force her off the case entirely.

Drawing national attention to Hale was difficult at first. When his indictment was announced, he dramatically related his story about Clinton and the McDougals to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, but the report that appeared in the Little Rock daily wasn’t sufficiently pointed in its accusations to be picked up by any larger media outlets. At Sheffield Nelson’s urging, however, Coleman already had taken his client to the most influential newspaper in the country, hoping that the New York Times would welcome a fresh angle on the Whitewater story it had broken the year before.

About two weeks before Hale’s indictment was handed down, Coleman had contacted Jeff Gerth, the Times investigative reporter whose front-page article had caused a brief stir in March 1992. The lawyer had invited Gerth down to Little Rock to hear Hale’s account in person at his law office. Gerth accepted, and over the course of two days questioning Hale, became sufficiently convinced to ask him to go on the record. After hesitating for a few days, Hale agreed.

Yet when Gerth found and interviewed his old source Jim McDougal, the ailing recluse said he had no memory of talking about the $300,000 loan with Hale and Clinton. Gerth got nothing useful from Casey or the Clinton White House, either. Stymied for the moment, he remained in touch regularly with Hale and Coleman, whose telephone records show almost two dozen calls to the Times reporter between September 19 and December 10. (Those records, of course, do not show the calls placed by Gerth to Hale and Coleman.) During roughly that same period, from September 27 to December 21, Hale also made at least twenty-eight calls to Jim Johnson.

The Times’s national editors at first declined to publish unverified charges against the president by a man under indictment for embezzling federal money. But in a display of solidarity with his new source, Gerth took some unusual steps to assist Hale and Coleman. He contacted an agent at the FBI’s office in Little Rock to report Hale’s story concerning Clinton and the $300,000 loan. He also informed the FBI agent about the impasse Coleman and Casey had reached during their plea bargaining. In that conversation, it would appear that Gerth suggested to the FBI that Casey was unwilling to take testimony from Hale that might implicate Tucker and Clinton. The Times reporter later said, “I don’t remember speaking to the FBI guy, but maybe I did.”

After hanging up with Gerth, the FBI agent immediately posted a teletype from Little Rock to the FBI director’s office in Washington, which said in part: “Gerth alluded that this was why the United States Attorney Casey would not deal with Coleman when he was attempting to work out a suitable deal for his client.”

Later that day, Gerth also called Irv Nathan, associate deputy attorney general, at the Justice Department’s Washington headquarters. He told Nathan about Hale and Casey, prompting the Justice official to inform his superiors about Gerth’s tip. According to the reporter, who considered Nathan a friend, “I told him what Hale was alleging and asked what he knew, what his reaction was.” Nathan’s concern quickly led to a meeting of top Justice officials to consider whether Casey should recuse herself from the Hale case because of her relationships with Clinton, Tucker, and other Arkansas Democrats.

Among those participating in the Justice Department deliberations over Casey’s potential conflicts were John Keeney, the second-ranking official in the Criminal Division, and Gerald McDowell, the chief of the Frauds Section. Casey and her staff took the position that absent strong and persuasive evidence from Hale, she should not recuse, lest every white-collar criminal in Arkansas force special consideration by claiming that Bill Clinton had made them commit a felony. Under the circumstances, however, Justice Department officials decided that Paula Casey should step aside, as she soon agreed to do. But they also resented what they viewed as underhanded methods used by Hale’s lawyer in attempting to coerce a favorable plea bargain. To McDowell, “it looked like Coleman was using Gerth to send messages to the FBI and the Department of Justice in Washington and telling them, giving them, in effect, proffers, but not in any useable form.” Both he and Keeney regarded this maneuver as “totally inappropriate.”

Even after Hale’s indictment, Coleman continued to insist that his client wouldn’t plead to a single felony count. He remained steadfast after Casey recused herself in early November and was replaced by Donald McKay, a career Washington prosecutor in the Frauds Section. Clearly, Coleman was no longer interested in dealing with the Justice Department, if he ever had been. Hale’s advisers were openly pushing for an independent counsel, and the surest way to achieve that was through the media, not the Justice Department or the courts. During the fall of 1993, Hale’s telephone records show that in addition to his contacts with the Times, he called reporters at the Washington Post, Time, and Newsweek, as well as conservative publications such as the Washington Times, owned by Unification Church leader Sun Myung Moon, and right-wing media magnate Rupert Murdoch’s new magazine, the Weekly Standard.

Although Gerth had a head start, the Post’s Michael Isikoff began chasing down Hale’s allegations not long afterward. Someone aware of Isikoff’s interest in Clinton and Whitewater had faxed the Democrat-Gazette’s September 24 story about Hale’s charges to him. Like Gerth, Isikoff interviewed Hale himself. Then he and his colleague Howard Schneider, assisted by Susan Schmidt, a reporter on the savings and loan beat, spent weeks trying to confirm Clinton’s role in the $300,000 loan. But all they got was a firm denial from Jim McDougal, which for the moment meant no story.

Editor’s note: This article has been changed since it was first published.

Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Arkansas Times columnist Gene Lyons is a National Magazine Award winner and co-author of "The Hunting of the President" (St. Martin's Press, 2000). You can e-mail Lyons at eugenelyons2@yahoo.com.

The politicization of the Secret Service scandal

What was once one of the right's favorite government agencies becomes a symbol of waste and moral degradation

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The politicization of the Secret Service scandalPresident Obama, surrounded by members of the Secret Service, upon his arrival in San Diego, Sept. 26, 2011. (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

It’s hard to work up much outrage about the Secret Service prostitution scandal, in which 11 members of the president’s elite protective service and various military personnel were found to have picked up escorts in Colombia, where they were doing advance work for the president’s visit. I guess it is probably not a good idea for the people in charge of protecting the president to leave themselves vulnerable to sexual blackmail, but on the other hand we do not live in a John Le Carré novel or “24″ episode, and I don’t think the threat of a honey-trap assassination conspiracy plot is very credible. If members of the Secret Service want to get drunk and hire escorts after work, that is their business. (As Melissa Gira Grant says, the only actual scandal here — and the reason this became an international incident — is that all these guys tried to bilk one of the women out of the money she was owed.)

But the predictable Washington mixture of prurient interest and moral posturing has turned this incident into grist for the scandals-and-investigations mill. And now we have the attempts at somehow making this a winning partisan issue for Republicans. Chuck Grassley, the senator from Iowa who triumphed over adversity and became the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee despite being functionally illiterate, would like to know whether any White House staff also slept with escorts that evening. No one has made the claim, but Grassley’s asking just in case. (For a live peek at a future paranoid right-wing myth in its embryonic stage, read the comments on that Washington Times story: “I can just hear those paper shredders going a mile a minute in the white house, and the document forgers are being called in, you know the same ones that did the birth certificate.”) Grassley was on Fox last night to make sure viewers repeatedly heard baseless speculation as to the involvement of White House staff.

Rep. Pete King, Long Island Republican and stalwart publicity monger, has sent Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan a list of 50 questions about the scandal in order to make it appear that he is very seriously investigating this very serious incident.

For those outside Congress, for whom insinuating escort patronage by unnamed White House staff seems a bit of a reach, the game is to attempt to use the scandal to prove some point the fecklessness of Obama as a leader and his shameful failure to make everyone in Washington stop being so awful and wasteful all the time.

NRO’s Mark Steyn, after praising the fiscal discipline of the agent who attempted to bilk his escort (ugh), suggests that the moral of the story is that we pay too much for presidential security, and that all those agents and fancy bullet-proof Suburbans are wastes of taxpayer funds and evidence of broke post-Imperial America’s profligacy. Sarah Palin, who had every right to be personally aggrieved for once, after it was reported that the agent at the center of the scandal wrote gross sexist things about her on Facebook, was among the first to declare that the problem was with the “culture” Obama has created at the White House. (Karl Rove, smarter than most of these people, suggested that politicizing a Secret Service scandal was dumb and counterproductive. Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan, coincidentally, was elevated to his position under George W. Bush.)

The makeup of the Secret Service, obviously, has very little connection to the political party of the person occupying the White House. Like most American law enforcement agencies, it’s primarily white and overwhelmingly male, and, historically, the culture of the agency has had more than a whiff of machismo. These are not exactly the sort of public sector employees right-wingers get off on demonizing.

In fact, the right has had for years a sort of Clint Eastwood-inspired fantasy of the Secret Service agent as folk hero. Decent, hard-working men putting their lives on the line to protect a bunch of elitist ingrates. That ingratiating phony Bill Clinton and his frigid, hectoring monster of a wife weren’t deserving of such stolid, unflinching loyalty and service.

The fullest expression of this fantasy is in this classic chain email that made its way to every inbox in the nation during the second president Bush’s first term. According to this email, attributed to the unnamed author’s former neighbor, the president’s security detail was constantly disrespected by those awful Clintons and their terrible staff. Hillary Clinton was “arrogant and orally abusive.” “She forbade her daughter, Chelsea, from exchanging pleasantries with” agents. “Al Gore resented Bill Clinton and thought he was to centrist. He despised all republicans.” Agents prayed for Bush to win the election, and their reward was the joy they all felt in the presence of President Bush and his amazing, wonderful wife.

This nonsense has its roots in fake anti-Hillary attacks, attributed to imaginary Secret Service members, that Republican operatives spread to sympathetic media voices starting more or less the day Bill took office. Former Secret Service agents do plenty of gossiping and bitching, most frequently to Ronald Kessler, but their complaints don’t tend to track quite so directly to right-wing fantasy narratives.

But a popular trope is of the upstanding agents blanching at being asked to look the other way as libidinous Democratic presidents — Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton — womanized. (Clinton was said to have threatened to fire agents who stymied his attempts to have trysts with Monica Lewinsky, though the agent who made the claim admitted to having invented it.) The pat moralism of the conservative Secret Service fantasy makes the agency’s lurid misadventure a bit funnier. It also explains why various people have to somehow convince themselves that the Obama administration somehow degraded the agency, through a lack of “management skills” or the widespread embrace of sexual deviance that is the logical end result of repealing the military’s ban on out gays and lesbians.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

The silly 2016 speculation game

It may be impossible to make any serious predictions about a far-off race, but that has never stopped a pundit

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The silly 2016 speculation game (Credit: AP/Shutterstock/Salon)

Being that it’s still March 2012 and we have no way of knowing who will actually be president by the end of January 2013 (besides “not Ron Paul,” obviously), it would seem to be a bit premature to speculate as to how the 2016 presidential race will shake out. And yet political reporters, finally bored perhaps with the inevitable Republican nomination of Mitt Romney, are already spewing forth predictions. Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has even created a “Sweet 2016″ bracket. 

The most important lesson of terrible premature presidential-campaign speculation is that nearly everyone who engages in it will be terribly, hilariously wrong. It doesn’t matter if you’re a complete buffoon, like Dick Morris, author of the 2007 classic “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race,” or someone fairly serious and “savvy,” like New York Times politics reporter Matt Bai, who posited current nobody Mark Warner as the future of the party in a 2006 Times magazine cover story now best (if barely) remembered for its altered and unflattering photo of the subject.

There will be events no one could’ve predicted — like “obvious” future Republican presidential contender George Allen using an obscure racial slur on camera, or John Edwards being generally John Edwards — that destroy promising careers in an instant.

And there is also the plain fact that the sort of politicians that Washington-based reporters and pundits and political operatives like, and the sort of politicians they think “voters” would like, are often people who have no appeal for anyone outside of their districts or the Beltway. (Like Evan Bayh. Jon Huntsman. And Mitch Daniels, probably.)

Some people turn out to be awful at campaigning: Like Wesley Clark, the general who was going to sweep a troop-worshiping country off its feet and away from George W. Bush, until it turned out that he did not blink like a human. Or Rick Perry, who, it turned out, seems too dumb to dress himself when asked simple questions on television.

There are times when this sort of long-range forecasting is easy until you overthink it: John McCain was the logical 2008 front-runner the moment he addressed the 2004 Republican convention, until you started daydreaming about Fred Thompson’s seductive drawl. Al Gore was pretty obviously going to be the Democratic nominee in 2000, and boredom with his inevitability might’ve had a hand in how the political press helped destroy him that year.

A hell of a lot will obviously depend on whether or not Barack Obama wins reelection. If he loses, Democrats might suddenly find white candidates from the West or the South more attractive. If he wins, we might have to take Joe Biden semi-seriously for a few unlikely news cycles. If Obama ends a second term as popular as Clinton, someone associated with his administration is certainly more likely to be nominated than if Obama’s 2015 numbers look more like Bush’s in 2007.

So let’s get to the predictions, shall we? According to Cillizza, the “number one seed” for 2016 is New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. (Mark Warner is still on the shortlist, by the way. His time will come!)

Cuomo is the reasonably popular governor of a very populous state. He’s thus far managed to balance liberal base-pleasing deeds (gay marriage!) with “moderate” newspaper editorial-board pleasing things (going after the pensions of public employees!). But we’re still talking about a Northeast liberal (or “liberal”) — from New York! — who’s living with but not currently married to a celebrity television cook who makes awful-looking garbage food out of prepackaged garbage food. The Democratic Party might not want to chance another blatantly culturally urban candidate. (I mean urban in the literal sense, and not as weird racial code.) Plus he’s in the honeymoon portion of his governorship, and that job has utterly destroyed its last two holders.

Plus, Cuomo looks like he’s on pace to use up much of the goodwill he built up with liberals after signing gay marriage into law. (So far there’s been his apparent lack of interest in transit, signing awful gerrymandered legislative and congressional district lines, and his property tax cap.)

Joe Biden has run for president twice and never come remotely close to winning a single primary. He’ll be 74 in 2016. As Steve Kornacki already pointed out, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to nominate 70-somethings. He’s also a gaffe-prone goofball whose appeal is that he’s a ridiculous character. I would not put a lot of InTrade money on Joe Biden winning the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Hillary Clinton is a bit younger than Biden, and a lot more serious than Biden. But does she still want to be president? Who knows. (Anyone who says they know is lying.) And if she runs in 2016, does she hire the same asinine campaign team that lost her the nomination in 2008?

After those three, we’re already essentially in “who?” territory with the Democrats. Not to say that someone no one has heard of now won’t be the nominee — with Democrats, you may be more likely to get a relative unknown than with Republicans — but we can’t know which governors or senators will turn out to be Barack Obama (or even John Edwards) and which ones will turn out to be… well, Mark Warner.

And theoretically there would be more women vying for the nomination than just Hillary Clinton. Cillizza posits New York Sen. Kristen Gillibrand — a long shot, in my estimation — and senatorial hopeful Elizabeth Warren, who, if she loses her election, would surely be out of the running, and if she wins, would be … a liberal senator from Massachusetts. So, I dunno, Amy Klobuchar? Sadly, four of the current six female governors are Republicans. The two Democrats are North Carolina’s Bev Purdue, who is currently polling poorly enough that she’s announced that she won’t seek reelection, and Washington’s Christine Gregoire, who seems cool, so let’s just put her on the fantasy shortlist. (Oh, I guess the Times already did.)

But you see where we are, at this point: Randomly tossing out names. It’s like predicting the 2016 NFL Draft. Some of these kids are still in high school!

As for Republicans: If Mitt Romney wins the election, there’s the candidate, fun speculation time done. (Unless Newt and Ron Paul mount a primary challenge?!?) If he loses, the party likely learns the lesson it always learns and lurches to the right for a while, and your front-runner in that case (assuming he doesn’t blow up the party at the convention, I guess?) is Rick Santorum. I made this point already and Dave Weigel concurred. He’s a “true conservative” and he looks like he’ll “come in second” this year, which are both substantial advantages in the Republican race.

Maybe it’s Marco Rubio if Romney makes him the running mate, but the GOP does not often nominate losing running mates, because why would you?

Is Paul Ryan, who frantically introduces numbers-laden fake-serious budgets every year, the future of the party? I happen to think he’s basically a bland weenie who only excites people predisposed to thrill to rich-on-poor economic warefare, but a not insubstantial portion of the Republican Party “elite” seems to like that sort of thing. Mitch Daniels is somehow even less electrifying, but as a governor he has a better shot than Rep. Ryan. And Santorum still seems to have a massive advantage over them all.

(Oh, what about Chris Christie? Yes, well, he’d certainly be fun but he is pretty moderate for the national Republican Party, even if he masks it by being an obnoxious, belligerent bully. And he is woefully unprepared to protect us from CREEPING SHARIAH.)

One guy changes this calculus, obviously: Jeb Bush, because the Bush name exerts some sort of weird hypnotic power over the Republican Party, and they are often forced to do their bidding, even when, afterward, they all regret it. I like to imagine that the nation as a whole has decided that it’s done with Bushes forever, but that is pretty naive. I mean, Nixon got elected twice. Jeb Bush has not actually held office in a while — by 2016 he’ll have been a regular private citizen for nearly a decade — and it’s possible the family has decided to wait for George P. Bush to come of age before reasserting their claim over the White House (oh man, guys, he just turned 35).

The sick need to treat politics like it’s fantasy baseball ensures that there’s absolutely nothing anyone can do to make people not wildly speculate as to what will happen years after an election that is still months away, so I just encourage you to be sensible and responsible about it. (Like, it won’t be Rand Paul.)

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap piece

Former New York Times editor combines hackneyed analysis with shopworn topic, with predictable results

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Bill Keller writes newest, dumbest Biden-Clinton 2012 swap pieceJoe Biden and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP/Jason Reed)

Bill Keller, a bad opinion columnist, has written a bad opinion column. It is about how Barack Obama will replace Vice President Joe Biden on the 2012 ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a thing that will not actually happen.

The former New York Times editor has lately been celebrating his return to writing by fearlessly tackling hacky column ideas already exhausted by everyone who was writing bad opinion columns during Keller’s tenure as a person with an actually important job. Having offered his own takes on classics like “The Huffington Post isn’t as good as a real newspaper” and “Twitter is dumb,” Keller today tries the old “running mate switcharoo” scenario.

John Heilemann made the case in August of 2010, but Bob Woodward really kicked it off by pretending a Biden-Clinton switch was “on the table” in October of 2010. That notion — supposedly — can be traced back to pollster grifter Mark Penn, which should have stopped anyone else from bringing it up ever again. But Jonathan Alter took another crack at it last October, and publishing speculation on the switch has become reliable Drudge-bait ever since.

Keller’s column frames the switch as something wished for, instead of predicting it based on the “chatter” of “insiders,” which helps make it merely stupid instead of inherently dishonest. But here are his arguments as to why it would be a good idea instead of a bizarre and desperate stunt:

One: it does more to guarantee Obama’s re-election than anything else the Democrats can do. Two: it improves the chances that, come next January, he will not be a lame duck with a gridlocked Congress but a rejuvenated president with a mandate and a Congress that may be a little less forbidding. Three: it makes Hillary the party’s heir apparent in 2016. If she sits out politics for the next four years, other Democrats (yes, Governor Cuomo, we see your hand up) will fill the void.

One: What? Prove it, maybe? Two: Haha what, again? Congress will get ungridlocked if the president switches vice presidents? To a Clinton? Three: OK, but what if Obama/Clinton loses? And if Obama wins again wouldn’t any Democrat be at a disadvantage in 2016 due to historical trends anyway, making it a “safer” bet to not be his running mate, assuming she actually wants to be president still, which is not at all a given?

But we’re not dealing with observable reality here, as the bit about Clinton’s magical power to un-gridlock Congress demonstrates. We’re in the world of vague assertions about “warmth” and “voltage.” How many electoral votes would running mate Hillary Clinton be worth? Keller never bothers to attempt to make a quantitative guess. This is the closest we get:

Moreover, even if Obama can win without Hillary, there’s a lot to be said for running up the score. If she can do in 2012 what Obama did in 2008 — animate that feeling of historic possibility — the pair can lift some House and Senate candidates along with them. One reason Republicans did so well in the 2010 Congressional elections is that they overcame the gender gap and carried women voters 51 to 49. Those voters will flock back to Hillary, the more so if the Republican ticket is locked into a culture-war agenda. So, by the way, will Hispanic voters, securing such endangered states as Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Ooh, actual data! The Republicans won women in a midterm election. Hillary Clinton is a woman. So in a presidential general election, women will “flock back to Hillary.” Those women may be Republicans, voting in a Republican wave election, but they are women and so they will vote for Barack Obama if he is next to a woman on the ballot. (Though what about those Hispanics? Shouldn’t Obama replace Biden with a Hispanic woman, in this case? Or isn’t he in fact best off retaining Joe Biden, who is, after all, a white man? From Scranton? White men will “flock back” to Obama once they see that he is friends with a white person.)

The column isn’t just bad analysis — it’s also oddly condescending to Secretary Clinton! It complains that she owes “us” a vice-presidential run after she “raised our expectations” by running for president last time. It calls Clinton “the dutiful Methodist schoolgirl.”

Here’s the line that is secretly the worst:

But the idea that she should replace Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate in 2012 is something else. It has been kicking around on the blogs for more than a year without getting any traction, mainly because it has been authoritatively, emphatically dismissed by Hillary, Biden and Team Obama.

Did you see that? “Kicking around on the blogs.” That’s Keller-speak for “not worth anyone’s time until a real journalist like New York Times opinion columnist Bill Keller brought it up.” The “bloggers” kicking this idea around, as I mentioned earlier, are New York magazine political writer John Heilemann, Washington Post living legend Bob Woodward, and former Newsweek senior editor and best-selling author Jonathan Alter. Those bloggers and their crazy notions!

As a blogger, I know that my silly opinion is not as carefully considered and well-informed as that of former New York Times editor Bill Keller, who is not at all simply talking out of his ass. But even if there were any hint at all that the switch was a possibility, which there isn’t, it would be a stupid idea. Hillary Clinton is already part of the president’s Cabinet, and she and her husband will already campaign for the president’s reelection. Running mates barely nudge the numbers in presidential elections, unless they’re historically awful, which Joe Biden isn’t. The Clintons are among the most divisive figures in American politics — Hillary Clinton’s recent high approval rating has come because she’s not running for anything — and relitigating every Clinton scandal would consume the national political press for weeks if she ended up on the ticket.

The running mate switch hasn’t been successful since the Franklin Roosevelt administration, and the last time a president made a strategic switch to help win a tough reelection, it failed.

And I bet if Obama did make this stupid switch, Bill Keller would write some awful column about how desperate it made the president look. Unless he will have by then moved on to finally writing his “kids today sure are sexting each other a lot” piece.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid idea

The Wall Street Journal publishes nonsense from Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, because they think you're an idiot

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Fake Democratic pollsters have stupid ideaHillary Clinton and President Obama (Credit: AP/Charles Dharapak)

I think it’s best to understand the Wall Street Journal editorial board’s decision to publish any given column by con artist pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell as basically an expression of contempt for people who read the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Caddell and Schoen, two loser “Democratic” “pollsters,” regularly publish very lame link-bait columns about how if Democrats want to succeed electorally, they must immediately cease being Democrats, and become, instead, Republicans. This week’s variation on that theme: Barack Obama should step aside (already heard that one last year around this time) and allow himself to be replaced by Hillary Clinton, for the good of the party and the nation.

Even though Mrs. Clinton has expressed no interest in running, and we have no information to suggest that she is running any sort of stealth campaign, it is clear that she commands majority support throughout the country.

Because she’s not running for anything.

So Hillary Clinton should be president instead of Barack Obama, because Obama is too partisan and divisive. America needs a bipartisan plan to attack the deficit and also create jobs, and it is Obama’s fault that that is a vague, magical fairy tale. Hillary Clinton will make this fairy tale real, thanks to the fact that, as we all know, Republicans love cheerfully working with the Clintons for the good of the nation. When a Clinton’s in the White House, partisan politics are always put aside!

This is self-evidently dumb on about ten different levels — Clinton won’t run, President Clinton wouldn’t have any more success negotiating with Congressional Republicans than President Obama, Clinton’s popularity is a result of her not being a partisan candidate for office anymore, if there was such a thing as a “bipartisan” plan to reduce the deficit while also stimulating job growth (and protecting entitlements!) we’d presumably have already decided to act on this fantastical plan, everything resembling such a plan is explicitly supported by the White House and rejected by Republicans, Republicans would not endorse said plans if President Obama promised to go away because then they’d simply want to wait for a Republican to take over for him, and Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen are not, as they claim to be, Democrats — but the Journal published this regardless, as they always do with fresh tripe from Schoen and Caddell.

Schoen — who works for hypothetical future independent presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, though that fact is never, ever disclosed — is a simple hack, precisely as dumb and unprincipled as you’d expect anyone who was once Mark Penn’s right-hand man to be. Caddell angrily left the Democratic party 20 years ago, which is seldom mentioned when he’s trotted out to trash the president on behalf of the right-wing media outlets that pay his rent. But the fact that they’re classic “Fox Democrats” matters much less than the fact that all of their editorials are predictable, wrong, and patently stupid.

As I said, printing their editorials is an implicit admission that you think your audience is credulous and moronic. The people in charge of the Wall Street Journal are savvy enough about politics to know that all of this is bilge and bullshit. They know both that this will never happen and that it’d be a stupid suggestion even if it were within the realm of possibility. They just don’t care. They don’t care that they’re printing garbage, because they figure garbage will get some traffic from those engaged in the same game.

If I were a conservative American I’d be less outraged at the specter of liberal elites hypothetically disrespecting me from their coastal enclaves and much more pissed off that the people on my side are constantly peddling this bullshit.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit?

She's a huge foreign policy asset to the president but this week's hosannas feel like overkill

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Does Hillary Clinton get too much credit? Hillary Clinton (Credit: Reuters)

I’m on record as a great admirer of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, going back to her days as New York senator and certainly through her 2008 presidential campaign. But this week’s set of stories depicting the U.S. Libya intervention as “Hillary’s War” (The Washington Post) and an example of Clinton’s “smart power” doctrine (Time Magazine’s cover) go a little bit too far for me. They feel like someone’s effort to upstage or diminish President Obama. For the record, I don’t think the effort is Clinton’s. It may just reflect the mainstream media’s inability to give Obama his due.

Clearly Clinton’s competence is an asset to the president, and her power and credibility reflects well on his ability to work with a former rival. And the Time piece, in particular, makes clear, while praising Clinton, that ultimately Obama makes most of his decisions with a small team of confidantes, and she is not among them. He’s the commander in chief.

And there’s fine reporting in the two pieces. Certainly Clinton deserves credit for using her role to leverage support and resources from other agencies, getting greater control of foreign aid funding and even Defense Department funds to bolster her agenda at State. Elevating the role of the State Department took particular work after George W. Bush ignored and degraded so many American alliances.

But neither piece apportions any share of blame for the downside of Clinton’s expansive diplomacy – her role in pushing a bigger continued U.S. presence in and around Iraq, for instance, flagged Monday by Glenn Greenwald. The continued Iraq presence will also use more of the sometimes lawless private contractors whose role she opposed during the presidential campaign. It also seems a little early to be declaring Libya a decisive victory for American interests, or the cause of human freedom, as the nature of the government that will emerge there remains unclear.

Still, at a time when Obama struggles to get the kind of credit he deserves on the foreign policy and domestic security front – for killing Osama bin Laden and other top al Qaida leaders, winding down the military role in Iraq and toppling Muammar Gaddhafi without losing a single American life – it strikes me as a little unseemly that when credit is given, so much of it goes to Clinton. For her part, at least publicly, Clinton works to turn the spotlight on her boss, telling David Gregory on Meet the Press 10 days ago that “President Obama has passed with flying colors every leadership challenge.” And while she insisted, not convincingly, “I’m out of politics, as you know, David, I don’t comment on it,” she quickly boosted her boss against his potential 2012 rivals.  “I think Americans are going to want to know that they have a steady, experienced, smart hand on the tiller of the ship of state, and there’s no doubt that that’s Barack Obama.”

It feels a little mean-spirited to be raising these questions about Clinton’s coverage on the day she lost her mother, Dorothy Rodham, at 92, but this is the week of the adoring press coverage. Again, I’m a strong Clinton admirer. But there’s something a little odd about the worshipful tone of these pieces. I still see a faint echo of Maureen Dowd’s analysis propping up Clinton and other female administration “hawks” in her continued effort to diminish Obama’s leadership and masculinity.   Dowd seems to be on vacation, or else we might see her to use these two profiles as another reason to pit Clinton against her boss.

I spoke with a close Clinton friend last week who insists the Secretary of State has no interest in either the role of vice president in 2012, or a presidential run in 2016, so I don’t think there’s any crusade for either job behind these admiring stories. Maybe her allies are just trying to make sure she gets credit for the great work she did, against all odds, for a man she was once accused of trying to destroy.

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Joan Walsh

Joan Walsh is Salon's editor at large.

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