Global Warming

Climate warriors and heroes

Meet the 28 leaders -- scientists, politicians, activists, celebrities and inventors -- who are fighting to stave off planetwide catastrophe.

Global warming is a planetary emergency everywhere but in the White House. While the Bush administration fiddles, the rest of the world burns with concern about the earth’s rising temperature. With our industries billowing a relentless stream of gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat, we’re decimating our natural ecosystems, exacting an incalculable toll on our planet and future health.

The climate warriors and heroes honored here embody the environment’s best defense. They are scientists, ministers, students, politicians, activists, lawyers, celebrities, inventors, and world leaders. As Al Gore says in his accompanying essay, they share little in common. “But each of them recognized the threat that climate change poses to the planet — and responded by taking immediate action to stop it,” Gore writes.

The range of their actions is remarkable. A college dropout tours the country in a bus that runs on vegetable oil, educating young people about fuel efficiency. The CEO of General Electric, one of the world’s biggest polluters, argues for a federal policy to reduce global warming. An emissary from the Inuit in the Arctic accuses the United States of violating the rights of her people by refusing to curb its climate-heating pollution.

“Their stories should inspire and encourage us,” Gore writes, “to see with our hearts, as well as our heads, the unprecedented response that is now called for.”

THE DROPOUT

Billy Parish

There are lots of ways to fight global warming: drive less, send e-mails to Congress, buy more efficient light bulbs. Billy Parish dropped out of Yale.

Parish, a junior from New York, became convinced that climate change poses a serious threat to human survival. So he quit school and became the coordinator of Energy Action, mobilizing more than a thousand student groups to lower climate-warming pollution. Working on a laptop and sleeping on couches from San Francisco to North Dakota, Parish has galvanized students across the country to take action on global warming.

In July he led a three-day fast at the White House to call attention to the estimated 150,000 deaths caused each year by climate change. He dispatched a bus that runs on biodiesel and vegetable oil to tour summer music festivals and promote fuel efficiency, culminating in a two-day forum in Detroit. And he has persuaded more than 120 universities to sign the Campus Climate Challenge, vowing to lower their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Parish first became concerned about the environment in high school, when he spent a semester tending an organic farm in rural Vermont. The 23-year-old is soft-spoken in a way that commands respect: He’s sincere without sounding self-righteous. “Billy had the courage to leave Yale to go get something done on the climate issue when it is most needed — now,” says James Gustave Speth, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. “His efforts to mobilize young people are exactly what is needed.”

For Parish, who once dreamed of being a doctor, dropping out of college seems like a small price to pay to halt global warming. “More and more young people are beginning to realize that climate change will significantly impact their future,” he says. “We need to do everything that we can — fight as hard as we can. Right now it doesn’t feel like there’s time for me to be in school.”

THE AVENGER

Al Gore

When history derailed the presidency of Al Gore, it may have increased his power to save the planet. Freed from the restraints of elected office, the former vice president is now widely regarded as America’s most persuasive and passionate spokesman on global warming. “Rescuing the environment from climate collapse was a — if not the — defining issue of my political career,” says Gore, 57. “And you can be damn sure I’m not giving up on it now.”

No public figure has a deeper working knowledge of the climate crisis. Gore studied the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions at Harvard and held the Senate’s first hearing on the science of climate change. In 1988, when he ran for president at the age of 40, his “primary motivation was to push the global-warming issue.” Four years later, he wrote “Earth in the Balance,” the bestselling book on global warming. Not long after that, Bill Clinton, who calls Gore “one of the greatest political and scientific intellects of our time,” asked him to be his running mate.

As vice president, Gore was a chief architect of the Kyoto Protocol, the historic accord on reducing carbon-dioxide emissions. But the Senate refused to ratify the treaty, calling the evidence “inconclusive.” Now that the scientific consensus is irrefutable,

Gore considers it “damned immoral” that the White House and Congress continue to block action on global warming. “This is an emergency of historic proportions,” he says. “We are in a race against time. There is a brave and hearty band of about 2 percent of Washington officials who are working on this, but 98 percent are in denial.”

These days, Gore devotes much of his energy to pressuring Washington to act. Since 2001, he has traveled the world giving a riveting presentation titled “Global Warming: A Planetary Emergency,” a lecture and multimedia display that lays out the causes and consequences of what Gore calls “the collision between civilization and the earth.” And last year, he co-founded an investment firm that supports climate-change initiatives and sustainable development.

For Gore, who grew up on a cattle farm in Tennessee and keeps a picture of environmental pioneer Rachel Carson on his desk, global warming is as much a moral issue as a scientific one. But despite the urgency of the issue, he remains at heart more an optimist than a doomsayer. “If Americans act immediately, we can innovate our way out of this problem,” Gore says. “We must use our political institutions, our democracy, our free speech, our reasoning capacity, our citizenship, our hearts and reason with one another, see the reality of this problem, and act as Americans.”

THE PAUL REVERE

Dr. James Hansen

On June 23, 1988, as the temperature in the nation’s capital climbed to a record 101 degrees, James Hansen sat before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and offered a blunt warning about the threat of global warming. “The greenhouse effect has been detected,” he testified, “and it is changing our climate now.”

That early alarm earned Hansen a reputation as the “Paul Revere of climatology.” His testimony drew on extensive scientific data he had gathered as head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA — but that didn’t stop the energy industry from attacking him. When Hansen testified again, the first Bush administration inserted a disclaimer into his remarks, portraying his findings as “not reliable.”

Hansen, a mild-mannered Iowan, blew the whistle on the White House tampering — and quietly collected more evidence of global warming. In April, he reported that readings gathered by thousands of robotic sensors from deep in the earth’s oceans show that the planet is “trapping” enough heat to raise average global temperatures by one degree in the next century. “He’s a good example of what a citizen-scientist can do,” says NASA colleague Ronald Miller. “His work is scientifically rigorous, but he also advises voters on how to deal with global warming.”

Hansen, the son of a tenant farmer, is a die-hard Yankees fan who uses baseball statistics to help explain global warming. He made his name as one of the world’s leading experts on Venus before switching planets in 1976. What alarms him most, he says, is how the current Bush administration is suppressing evidence of climate change. “In my more than three decades in government, I have never seen anything approaching the degree to which information flow from scientists to the public has been screened and controlled as it is now,” Hansen says. “Delay of another decade, I argue, is a colossal risk.”

THE MESSENGER

Dr. Robert Watson

It’s not easy getting international scientists to agree about anything. Meteorologists look at the world differently than geologists, and developing countries have different agendas than industrial nations.

But Robert Watson, an American born in England, practically invented the process of getting the world’s scientists to work together. In the 1980s, he persuaded researchers to combine their efforts to study damage to the ozone layer. And as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he brought the same skills to bear on global warming. In 2001, the panel issued a landmark study endorsed by 120 nations. Its simple but devastating conclusion: Human beings have already caused the planet to heat up significantly, and it is likely to get worse. The study found that the earth’s temperature will likely rise as much as 10 degrees by 2100, and that sea levels will rise as much as 35 inches.

The Bush administration responded by killing the messenger. After the study appeared, ExxonMobil sent a memo to the White House lobbying for Watson to be removed from the United Nations panel. A few months later, Watson was unceremoniously replaced with a less outspoken representative. “The Bush administration axed him because they saw him as too effective,” says Michael Oppenheimer, a geosciences professor at Princeton University. “The world is poorer for not having Bob in this kind of role.”

Not that the ouster silenced him. As chief scientist for the World Bank, Watson is on the road almost half of every year, working with developing nations to cut their greenhouse-gas emissions and to raise awareness about climate-related threats posed by widespread disease and flooding. “There could be a lot of lives lost and people being displaced,” says Watson, 56. And despite being a target of the Bush administration, he notes that Democrats in Congress have also refused to impose mandatory targets to curb greenhouse gases. “What if tomorrow morning President Bush decided he wanted to move to targets — would Congress approve it?” he asks. “The answer is most certainly no.”

THE ELDER STATESMAN

Raúl Estrada Oyuela

In 1997, Argentine diplomat Raúl Estrada Oyuela presided during a two-week conference in Japan, where thousands of international delegates were meeting to hammer out the first global treaty on climate change. On the final night, after three days of nonstop negotiations, the delegates were close to an agreement. But at the last minute, U.S. representatives refused to sign, insisting that the treaty include a provision allowing countries to buy and sell “emissions credits” from one another, essentially trading the right to pollute. Tempers among the exhausted delegates grew short — until Estrada, a portly and distinguished statesman known for his love of good food, stepped in and eased the tension with rapturous descriptions of his wife’s home cooking. At the 11th hour, he accepted the American provision, sealing the deal on a unanimous agreement he named the Kyoto Protocol.

“Estrada is a grandmaster of diplomacy and the godfather of Kyoto,” says David Sandalow, an assistant secretary of state under Bill Clinton, who helped negotiate the agreement. “It wouldn’t have happened without his leadership, excellent judgment and good humor.”

Eight years later, the landmark agreement has become the centerpiece of international law. In February, 131 countries — including Canada, Japan and every member of the European Union — began implementing the treaty, which requires nations to limit heat-trapping gases by 2012. But Kyoto failed to receive a single vote when it was brought before the U.S. Senate in 1997, and the Bush administration has refused to implement it, insisting that it would have “wrecked our economy.”

In fact, as Estrada points out, Kyoto is proving to be an advantage: Germany, for example, has created 450,000 new jobs while cutting carbon emissions by nearly 20 percent. “We expected the United States leaders to comply,” says Estrada, “because the protocol is economically forward-thinking.” What’s more, he adds, American companies can’t escape the treaty: Any U.S. business that operates in a Kyoto-endorsing country must comply with the agreement’s emissions restrictions at its overseas plants.

A father of eight and grandfather of 12, Estrada started out as a journalist before getting his law degree and serving in embassies from the United States to China. His global experience makes him confident that America will eventually join Kyoto. “I believe that international collaboration is the only way to solve this global problem,” says Estrada, 68. “And I have faith that U.S. leaders will eventually agree to participate in this greater good.”

THE POWER PLAYER

Paul Anderson

You wouldn’t expect the cutthroat CEO of one of the country’s largest utilities to propose a tax on his own pollution — but that’s exactly what Paul Anderson of Duke Energy is doing. Anderson wants to slow global warming by giving industry an incentive to go green — levying a “carbon tax” on their emissions of climate-warming gases. Since Duke burns 17 million tons of coal each year, the tax would encourage the North Carolina power company to replace its aging generators with newer, cleaner facilities that run on wind or natural gas. “It gives you the flexibility to make intelligent investment choices,” Anderson says.

Many of Anderson’s colleagues in the energy industry consider the carbon tax “a high-cost proposal for something that we’re not even sure is real.” But Anderson has no doubt that global warming is real: He witnessed the damage himself in 1999, when he was CEO of what is now the world’s largest mining company, in a chopper flying over one of his operations in New Guinea. “I saw that the glaciers had shrunk to practically nothing,” he says. “It was a heck of a dramatic way of understanding that something is actually happening here.”

In the normally staid utility industry, Anderson is something of a maverick — an energy czar who has been invited to captain Greenpeace’s ship, the Rainbow Warrior. The son of a nuclear-plant worker, he jokingly refers to himself as Bart Simpson. But Anderson, 60, doesn’t kid around about global warming: The beauty of a carbon tax, he says, is that it’s a “no regrets” policy: “If somebody tomorrow were to discover that global climate change isn’t real, the carbon tax still would have resulted in higher-performance machinery, more conscientious executives and healthy debate in the industry. Better yet, it would have reduced our dependence on foreign oil. At the end of the day you’d say, Well, that wasn’t a bad deal anyway.”

THE HAWK

Jim Woolsey

Stern and officious, Jim Woolsey comes across like the hard-core hawk he is — a former director of the CIA with access to high-level officials in the White House and the Pentagon. But going against the grain of old-school conservatism, he has become the loudest voice in a growing chorus of “cheap hawks” who want to wage the war on terror with plug-in cars and fuel made from manure. A member of the Defense Policy Board, Woolsey wants to defeat terrorism by freeing America from its dependency on foreign oil, rather than routing the enemy in costly wars. “America’s energy demand is financing terror,” Woolsey says. “We don’t need pie-in-the-sky hydrogen scenarios that are 20 years out. We don’t have that kind of time.”

Among the techno-fixes Woolsey promotes: producing ethanol from prairie grass and corncobs, harvesting biodiesel from farm waste, and adding a battery to existing hybrid cars. “Plug-in hybrids could get up to 150 miles per gallon,” he says. “And since electricity is comparatively cheap, you would get the functional equivalent of 50-cent-a-gallon gasoline.”

Woolsey’s primary goal is to bolster America’s national security. But his energy-independence strategy would also curb global warming, create a market for clean-energy providers, strengthen the dollar, cut the deficit, and generate international goodwill. “It’s not just win-win,” he says. “It’s win-win-win-win-win.”

Woolsey, 64, is careful not to criticize his fellow conservatives, and the White House has begun to borrow his ideas about energy efficiency. “Conservatives dismiss renewable energy as kind of airy-fairy — you know, real men dig and drill,” says Reid Detchon, executive director of the Energy Future Coalition. “Woolsey has used his security-hawk clout to cut through that myth and pump up the profile of clean-tech solutions.”

An Oklahoma native, Woolsey earned degrees from Stanford, Oxford and Yale. For a hawk, he can be a bit of a prankster; he sings backup in a rock band called the Goths and played the role of Homeland Security secretary in a war-game scenario prepared for Congress that envisioned terrorist attacks disrupting oil supplies. An avid kayaker who lives in a solar-powered house off Chesapeake Bay, he also confesses to being “a tree hugger” — but he isn’t worried about sharing an agenda with environmentalists. “It doesn’t matter what the principal motivation is,” he says. “It’s just two different sets of reasons for wanting the same thing.”

THE EMISSARY

Sheila Watt-Cloutier

Sheila Watt-Cloutier’s people, who have lived in the Arctic for thousands of years, recognized the threat posed by global warming long before science confirmed their observations. When robins and barn owls began showing up in the North’s frozen reaches, the Inuit had no name for them.

As chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference — an alliance of 155,000 indigenous people — Watt-Cloutier serves as an international emissary. This fall, the ICC is filing a petition with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that accuses the United States of violating the rights of the Inuit by refusing to curb its climate-heating pollution. “Sheila is putting a human face on the problem of global warming,” says Donald Goldberg of the Center for International Environmental Law.

Watt-Cloutier has only to look out of her living-room window in the Canadian town of Iqaluit to see the effects of global warming: Sea ice is melting and permafrost is thawing. “What you do in the United States is connected to people falling through the ice in the Arctic,” she says. “What happens to the planet happens first up here. We are the early warning for the rest of the world.”

A grandmother at 51, Watt-Cloutier spent the first 10 years of her life traveling by dog sled. Today she hopes the human-rights petition will show the rest of the world that the Inuit aren’t simply helpless victims who can’t make it in the modern world. “I don’t think we’re meant to be eliminated by globalization,” she says. “We’re meant to be the beacon, so that the rest of the world can understand what it’s doing to itself.”

THE PRIME MINISTER

Tony Blair

Eighteen months after the September 11 attacks, British Prime Minister Tony Blair stepped on a podium in London and identified the biggest long-term threat confronting the world. “There will be no genuine security,” Blair declared, “if the planet is ravaged.” He went on to equate global warming with weapons of mass destruction, a position later elaborated by his chief science advisor, Sir David King: “Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today — more serious even than the threat of terrorism.”

Blair’s international reputation was damaged when he supported President Bush’s invasion of Iraq — but he has tried to use his political capital to push the White House to wage war on global warming. Blair made climate change one of his top two priorities at the G8 summit last summer, and he warns that only “timely action” will avert a threat “so far-reaching in its impact and irreversible in its destructive power that it alters radically human existence.” Britain’s own record debunks Bush’s insistence that curbing climate change would hurt the economy: Since 1990, Britain has reduced its greenhouse-gas emissions by 14 percent, while its economy has grown by 40 percent.

Blair, 52, is no newcomer to the fight. After a briefing by his science advis0rs in 2001, he ordered a detailed investigation into the impact of climate change. The conclusion: Global warming will become irreversible unless the world slashes CO2 emissions by 60 percent within 50 years.

In a stroke of diplomatic genius, Blair pledged to achieve such reductions in Britain by 2050 — making him the first world leader to propose concrete targets beyond the time frame outlined in the Kyoto Protocol. Spurred by his example, France, Germany and Sweden followed suit. “If there is one political leader who has most vigorously championed the issue of climate change, it is Tony Blair,” says Klaus Toepfer, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme.

An Oxford grad who played in a rock band as a student, Blair is an avid nature buff who has hiked the Pyrenees and an obsessive scholar who has been known to read the Koran on vacation. His urgency over global warming sharpened considerably in 2003, after a record heat wave in Europe left 30,000 people dead. In recent years, he has ordered his government to purchase a fleet of hybrid cars and make its buildings more energy-efficient.

So far, the Bush administration has ignored his calls for action. But Blair remains determined to force the United States to take responsibility for its contribution to global warming. “The blunt reality,” he says, “is that unless America comes back into some form of international consensus, it is very hard to make progress.”

THE ROAD WARRIOR

Hiroshi Okuda

Hiroshi Okuda, the chairman of Toyota, envisioned the need for a hybrid car long before history demanded it. In the 1990s, at a time when oil prices were hitting rock bottom and America’s SUV market was exploding, Okuda greenlighted the engine technology that would usher in an era of fuel-efficient — and eventually zero-emission — cars.

Today there are more than 350,000 Priuses on the road worldwide, and other automakers are racing to catch up with the 350 patents Toyota holds on gas-electric hybrids. “When it comes to perfecting the killer app of hybrid technology,” says Ashok Gupta, director of the air and energy program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, “Okuda is the Bill Gates of the auto world.”

Six feet tall and a black belt in judo, Okuda likes to break the rules. To encourage youthful innovation, he promotes younger employees to managerial roles. He has dismissed American carmakers as “stupid.” And in June, to help Japan meet its climate targets under the Kyoto Protocol, he sauntered down a Tokyo catwalk in a lightweight suit, sans tie, his shirt collar unbuttoned down to midchest. It was a fashion statement almost as scandalous as an emperor with no clothes: Formal business attire is to Japanese executives as shitkickers are to Texas oilmen. But Okuda, an outspoken climate crusader at age 72, was promoting Japan’s emerging “cool biz” movement, modeling lighter suits that could alleviate the need for air conditioning in office buildings.

For all his showmanship, Okuda is dead serious when it comes to the fight against global warming. “People and countries simply will no longer allow autos to damage their living environments or the earth’s ecosystems,” says Okuda, who has worked at Toyota for 50 years. The Prius “embodies this spirit,” he adds, contributing to the company’s “growth in the moral dimension.”

Okuda, a serious reader who ranges from political memoirs to Goethe, selected the name “Prius” because it means “to go before” in Latin — signifying “a forerunner to the 21st century and to the era when automobile technologies become highly diverse.” Hybrid technology is already setting the stage for the future: Building on the system used in the Prius, Toyota has developed a prototype, the FCHV, that runs on hydrogen fuel cells.

THE ICE HUNTER

Dr. Lonnie Thompson

Lonnie Thompson has spent more time above 18,000 feet than any other person on earth. Trekking to the Himalayas and Andes and beyond, he has risked blood clots and temporary blindness in the name of a single pursuit: preserving tens of thousands of years of weather history coded deep in the planet’s fast-vanishing glaciers. “No scientist has taken bigger risks to track ancient weather patterns and help us understand the anomaly of current climate trends,” says Al Gore.

Thompson stores his prehistoric glacial samples at Ohio State University in vaults kept at subarctic temperatures and studies the dust particles and air trapped within the ice. From this atmospheric evidence, he has reconstructed a meticulous calendar of temperatures dating back 750,000 years. The upshot: “It proves that the warming trends of today are vastly more dramatic than what we’ve seen over 5,000 years,” Thompson says.

Growing up on a small farm in West Virginia, Thompson studied geology so he could work in the coal industry. But he got sidetracked in grad school, when he examined the first ice core ever extracted by American scientists. “You could have knocked me over with a feather the day I discovered, firsthand, that glaciers contain a frozen history of the earth,” he recalls. Now, in his work at the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State, Thompson possesses a will to survive on par with Lance Armstrong’s, defying frostbite and hurricane-force winds. Photographs he has taken provide disturbing views of the world’s melting glaciers — including the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, which is expected to disappear entirely by 2015.

Thompson dismisses skeptics who contend that the current warming trend is due to a natural cycle. “Name one who has ever really studied climate or collected data,” he says. “I bet you can’t.” Glaciers, he adds, “have no political agenda. They don’t care if you’re a Democrat or a Republican. Science is about what is, not what we believe or hope. And it shows that global warming is wiping out invaluable geological archives right before our eyes.”

THE HARDBALLER

Dr. Ralph Cicerone

In 2001, after 2,000 international scientists issued a landmark report concluding that climate change is a man-made problem, the White House flatly rejected the resounding global consensus, demanding “information based on science.” Casting suspicion on the work of foreign scientists, President Bush called for a report by America’s elite scientific institution, the National Academy of Sciences — referring the issue to an NAS panel that included leading skeptics intent on refuting the conclusive evidence of global warming.

But Bush didn’t count on Ralph Cicerone. An atmospheric chemist who has spent decades computing pollution levels around the world, Cicerone put up a formidable fight against the skeptics — and won. The NAS published a corroboration of the international report, broadcasting the message that scientists will not serve as apologists for the president. “It took incredible courage,” says Stephen Schneider, a climate expert at Stanford University. “Ralph’s team refused to buckle under pressure from the administration.” Faced with the panel’s strong conclusions, Bush had no choice but to publicly admit to the overwhelming evidence that humanity is causing climate change, even as his administration fails to address it.

Before opting for a career in science, Cicerone played varsity baseball at MIT and was offered a job as a radio announcer for the San Diego Padres. Having spent decades collecting greenhouse-gas samples from sources as varied as tailpipes, rice paddies and cow pastures, Cicerone has proved to be a remarkably savvy political operative. He opposed Bush’s ouster of Robert Watson from a U.N. panel on climate change, claiming it would “greatly reduce the emphasis on science.” And in June, when Rep. Joe Barton of Texas demanded an investigation to discredit three scientists whose data confirmed global warming, Cicerone denounced the move as “intimidating” and demanded that it be halted.

To Cicerone, 62, the politics of global warming seem simpler than the science. “I can’t emphasize enough how complicated the climate system is,” he says. “So to see all the evidence that has come together recently is staggering. And despite all the political polarization around the issue of climate change, there is more serious interest in it than I have ever seen. That revs me up.”

THE LITIGATOR

John Adams

If the planet has a lawyer, it’s John Adams. In 2003, when the Bush administration failed to curb auto emissions as mandated by the Clean Air Act, Adams unleashed his team of attorneys at the Natural Resources Defense Council to file a landmark lawsuit against the government. He also sued the nation’s five largest power companies for spewing the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming, and he will soon be going to court to stop automakers from blocking a new clean-car law in California.

All told, the organization currently has more than 200 lawsuits pending against polluters. “NRDC represents the gold standard,” says Eric Schaeffer, former head of law enforcement at the Environmental Protection Agency. “Their attorneys rival the sharpest minds in the EPA and are defending public health right now in a way that officials under the Bush regime can’t.”

At 72, Adams is a white-haired, button-down attorney who comes across as mild-mannered and unflappable. But he can display a mean bark in the courtroom, as well as an impeccable command of the facts. A crackerjack strategist who co-founded NRDC in 1970, he promptly made a name for the organization by playing a key role in writing the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act.

NRDC now boasts more than a million members, an annual budget of $60 million and a more powerful climate arm than any other environmental group. In his 35 years of shaping NRDC’s legal tactics, Adams says, he has never seen a more worthy target than the Bush administration: “Their denial is stupefying. Here we have an administration that invaded Iraq on sparse and even bogus evidence, and yet they claim to be unconvinced by the overwhelming data on climate change — despite a bigger scientific consensus than most any we’ve ever seen in history.”

Adams grew up in New York’s Catskills and still owns a farm there, often wheeling guests around on an ancient Cub Cadet tractor. But he is not afraid to draw the ire of his allies: NRDC has taken flak from fellow environmentalists for siding with the Bush administration and fossil-fuel producers on the benefits of “clean coal,” a new technology that filters out climate-warming pollutants so they can be “sequestered” underground. “We’re not going to solve the climate problem unless we get industry to join us in the fight,” Adams insists.

Coal accounts for more than half of U.S. electricity production, and Adams believes that a complete shift to renewable energy will simply take too long to protect the climate. “The bottom line,” he says, “is that America has to start significantly reducing greenhouse gases even before we phase out fossil fuels.”

THE PRODUCER

Laurie David

No one has done more to get global warming off the science page and on to the front page than Laurie David. A trustee of the Natural Resources Defense Council, David is putting together a comedy special on climate change that will air Nov. 20, featuring celebrities such as Tom Hanks, Steve Martin and Robin Williams. She is producing an HBO report on global warming called “Too Hot Not to Handle,” which she promises will be “the least wonky documentary anybody has ever seen on this issue.” And she has organized a “virtual march” on Washington, signing up Walter Cronkite, Sen. John McCain, Leonardo DiCaprio and 140,000 other Americans to demand immediate action on global warming.

“She can get any studio head on the telephone within a few minutes, and virtually any Hollywood celebrity,” says Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “She’s opened up new corridors of power to the environmental movement.”

David is working those corridors to “permeate pop culture” with environment-friendly images. Her husband, Larry David, the creator of “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” drives a Toyota Prius hybrid — both on the show and in real life. And thanks to her efforts, hybrids also make prominent appearances on “24″ and “Alias” — cause-related product placement designed to make the fight against global warming look cool.

David, 47, used to berate Hummer drivers at red lights for their lousy fuel economy, but she gave up the lectures at the insistence of her preteen daughters. These days, her urgency is most apparent in the virtual march, which will be featured this fall on “The Young and the Restless” and “The Bold and the Beautiful.” Rather than burn fossil fuels to get millions to Washington, David is signing people up online for a cross-country look at climate change’s devastation. “You don’t have to go to Alaska to see that global warming is real and now,” David says. “You can see it in Louisiana and Florida, in New Jersey and Arizona. We have to shift the debate on this issue this year.”

Her husband likes the online protest for a different reason. “The virtual march is a perfect opportunity for the lazy man to do something good without having to expend any effort,” he says. “This thing was made for me.”

THE LAWMAKERS

John McCain and Joe Lieberman

For a politician, Sen. John McCain doesn’t sound optimistic about staving off global warming. “We’re making great progress,” he says, “but I’m not convinced that we are going to devise solutions in time to prevent serious damage to the environment.”

Not that McCain isn’t doing his part. At a time when some Republicans in Congress dismiss global warming as a “hoax” perpetrated by environmentalists, McCain and Sen. Joe Lieberman have forged a bipartisan counterassault to tackle the crisis. The Climate Stewardship Act, which they introduced in 2003, is the only bill that seeks to force American industry to reduce its total emission of greenhouse gases. Under the measure — modeled on the market-based program that successfully reduced acid rain in the 1990s — businesses that exceed a federal cap on emissions would be permitted to buy pollution “credits” from companies that cut their output of CO2. “It’s an ingenious solution in which polluters are paying pioneers to innovate,” Lieberman says.

Although the Senate has twice rejected the measure, McCain and Lieberman have held repeated hearings on the issue, exposing the tactics of their opponents. In one of the most memorable sessions, McCain shot down fellow Republicans who were brandishing a statement signed by “experts” on climate science — pointing out that Perry Mason and a Spice Girl were among the signatories.

The Bush administration also refuses to support a mandatory cap on climate-warming pollution, arguing for voluntary limits. Lieberman, 63, calls the president’s do-nothing approach “monumental negligence,” while McCain, 69, attacks it as “disgraceful.” But the deadlock will continue, they say, as long as Congress and the White House remain under the influence of polluting industries. In 2004 alone, the energy industry contributed nearly $38 million to congressional candidates.

“We see governors and mayors across the nation taking action on climate change, and yet here in Washington, the special interests rule,” McCain says. “But they won’t rule forever.”

THE TIDE TURNER

Dr. Robert Corell

Few scientists know as much about how global warming is changing the world as Robert Corell. As chair of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Corell oversaw a five-year study by 300 scientists from 15 countries who studied the effects of climate change in the Arctic. The conclusion: Greenhouse gases are causing the planet to heat up faster than anyone realizes. “We’re talking about the sea level rising at a rate of about a meter every hundred years or so,” says Corell — enough water to swallow a chunk of Florida and more than 40 percent of Bangladesh. Even if all climate-warming pollution ceased today, he adds, “the oceans would continue to warm, and the glaciers would continue to melt — and those processes will take 1,500 years to stabilize.”

The detailed findings — laid out in a peer-reviewed, 1,200-page report published on Oct. 21 — provide the most advanced evidence yet of global warming’s stark reality. But a year before the study was finished, the Bush administration stalled its progress, shutting down talks designed to come up with specific policy recommendations. “The United States took umbrage to the process, even though they had voted to create it,” says Corell, a senior fellow with the American Meteorological Society. “They said the science was not complete.” After a series of tense meetings in Greenland, Iceland and Denmark, the administration finally yielded — endorsing the recommendations at 3 a.m. on the very last day of negotiations.

Corell, 70, became interested in climate change while studying oceanography. His plain-spoken authority has been instrumental in settling the debate over global warming. “He talks about climate change in terms that regular people can understand,” says Sen. John McCain. “A lot of people who used to be skeptical about global warming have been persuaded by the overwhelming scientific evidence presented by studies like the ACIA.”

Corell remains optimistic that those who doubt the reality of global warming — those he calls “the Bush recalcitrants” — will come around as industry finds ways to profit from cleaner forms of energy. “By 2100, the power plants of today are going to look like the steel mills did in Pittsburgh in 1975,” he says. “They will be derelict, because they’re no longer useful.” Corell has turned his attention to hydrogen and other forms of renewable energy, looking for a way to stem the coming tide. “My grandchildren are pretty damned important to me,” he says. “I can’t sit here saying, ‘Take action,’ when I didn’t take part in the action time. I don’t want to leave a legacy that I didn’t do my damnedest to try to slow this down as fast as we could.”

THE UP-AND-COMER

Zhao Hang

If China fulfills expectations in the coming decades by emerging as the world’s dominant industrial power, its explosive growth could heat the planet to catastrophic levels. China has only 20 million cars on the road — but at its current pace, that number will surpass 300 million by 2030. That’s why Zhao Hang, director of the China Automotive and Technology Research Center, has fought so hard to implement what one U.S. analyst calls “the most important energy policy adopted by any country in the world in the last 30 years.”

Working with advisors in California, Michigan and Japan, Zhao devised fuel-economy standards for China that are 20 percent tougher than those in the United States. He then steered the measure through the central government, where it was approved unanimously. The new standards, which went into effect this summer, will reduce climate-warming emissions in a country that is already home to 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities. They will also save more than 1 billion barrels of oil by 2030 and force automakers to clean up their act: By 2008, 90 percent of the SUVs currently built in America will no longer be legal for sale in China.

China has also implemented a landmark law requiring the country’s utilities to produce 10 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020. “China understands that climate change is a very big challenge in human history,” says Zhao, 43, speaking in his native Mandarin. “It is a matter in our own interest to ensure that our growth is sustainable — and to impose limits on our contribution to this problem.”

THE PROPHET

Jim Ball

In the summer of 2003, the Rev. Jim Ball took a road trip through the Bible Belt. Driving a dark-blue Prius from Texas to the nation’s capital, he stopped at evangelical churches to talk about the moral and ethical implications of burning fossil fuel, sparking debate over global warming with a simple question: “What would Jesus drive?”

As executive director of the Evangelical Environmental Network, Ball continues to inject the language of scripture into the debate over climate change, calling on Christians to trade in their SUVs for more fuel-efficient cars. “Is it loving your neighbor to put them at risk of all these threats of climate change?” he asks. “Is it doing unto others as you would have them do unto you? I don’t think so.” Under his leadership, 30 prominent evangelical leaders — representing 45 million congregants — held a three-day retreat last year to discuss global warming and are preparing to issue a landmark statement on the issue.

“Jim is like one of the Old Testament prophets warning the people,” says the Rev. Richard Cizik, of the National Association of Evangelicals. “I’m sure he has wondered if he was ever going to see the day when the evangelical world was going to wake up. But he’s a patient servant of the Lord, and I think that day has come.”

By speaking directly to evangelicals — the base of President Bush’s support — Ball is working to dismantle the divide that has long separated churchgoers and tree huggers. Last January, he attended a pro-life rally carrying a provocative placard that read “Stop Mercury Poisoning of the Unborn.”

Ball, 44, grew up in Texas and engages in what he calls “spiritual jogging,” praying on his eight-mile runs. He became interested in climate change while getting a doctorate in theological ethics. “Climate change isn’t just an environmental problem — that’s low-balling it,” he says. “Millions of poor people could die in this century because of global warming, and millions of others are at risk of hunger and malnutrition. The poster child of global warming is a poor child. And Christians are supposed to look out for the poor, because God loves them.”

THE GOVERNATOR

Arnold Schwarzenegger

In his first two years as governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger has implemented more ambitious initiatives to reduce global warming than any other politician in America. “We have to make very, very aggressive moves to reverse this threat,” he says. In June, the governor signed an executive order requiring California — the world’s sixth-largest economy — to slash its climate-warming emissions by 80 percent by 2050. “The goal he set eclipses Britain’s,” says Sir David King, chief science advisor to Prime Minister Tony Blair. “Now we’re second to California — and that is one race I’m delighted to be second in.”

Schwarzenegger also backed a law requiring that all cars sold in California lower their emissions by nearly a third within a decade — a move that sparked similar measures in 10 other states, as well as a lawsuit by automakers. He is installing hundreds of hydrogen fueling stations along the state’s major highways and is pushing California utilities to produce 20 percent of their electricity from renewable energy by 2010. “He belongs in the sparsely populated top tier of elected officials who are not only taking global warming seriously but devising solutions on a scale that actually matches the problem,” says David Hawkins, climate director for the National Resources Defense Council.

Schwarzenegger — who has been influenced behind the scenes by his wife’s cousin, Robert Kennedy Jr. — appears to have embraced his inner tree hugger on a personal level as well. He has instituted a five-minute limit on showers at his home, downsized the fleet of Hummers that he has been collecting since his “Terminator” days and worked with GM to develop an SUV that runs on hydrogen.

His environmental policies are extremely popular with voters, proving that taking a stand on global warming doesn’t hurt a politician at the polls. But Schwarzenegger, 58, characterizes his commitment to climate change as an issue of morality. “In decades past, when we brought this damage to the world around us, we did not know any better — that was our mistake,” he says. “But now we do know better. And if we don’t do anything about it, that will be our injustice.”

THE VISIONARY

Amory Lovins

Nobody has a more varied and eccentric set of credentials as a climate crusader than Amory Lovins. A respected physicist and economist who co-founded the Rocky Mountain Institute in 1982, Lovins has published 29 books on energy and the environment, helped the semiconductor industry devise hyper-efficient factories, and advised 18 heads of state, including Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. His top priority, however, is transforming the automobile. Thanks to America’s love affair with the Hummer, average fuel efficiency is actually worse today than it was in 1980.

“Transportation accounts for 70 percent of America’s oil demands and generates a third of all carbon emissions,” says Lovins, 57. “It is the most intractable part of the climate problem.”

To prod Detroit to think cleaner, Lovins has designed a new kind of SUV: the Revolution. His concept car goes from zero to 60 in 8.3 seconds and gets 114 miles per gallon. Crafted from superstrength plastics, the Revolution weighs only 1,850 pounds — less than half as much as a conventional car — yet has more than five times the crash resistance. That makes it light enough to be driven by hydrogen fuel cells, which lack the oomph to power heavier cars with gas engines.

Lovins, the son of an inventor, attended Harvard and became an Oxford don at 21. He has briefed automakers on the Revolution and is working with some to incorporate more lightweight plastics into their designs. His goal is to push American industry to double its fuel efficiency and find substitutes for oil — a move that he projects would save $70 billion a year. “Using energy more efficiently doesn’t just address the climate crisis — it offers an economic bonanza,” Lovins says. “Why? Because saving fossil fuel is a lot cheaper than buying it.”

THE GO-BETWEEN

Jonathan Lash

What do leading Fortune 500 companies such as IBM, General Electric, DuPont and Starbucks have in common? They’ve all listened to Jonathan Lash. As president of the World Resources Institute, Lash has arguably done more than any other environmentalist to bridge the bitter divide between industry interests and green groups determined to halt global warming. A former top advisor to President Clinton, Lash has waltzed into the boardrooms of the world’s biggest polluters, sweet-talked CEOs with his kindly air, and pushed them to not only slash their emissions but also improve their bottom lines. “He is a committed green and a pillar of integrity, but he does what most eco-purists are too prudish to do: get in bed with industry,” says Kevin Curtis of the National Environmental Trust. “And he never regrets it in the morning.”

A former Peace Corps volunteer and the son of Greenwich Village radicals, Lash considers himself a “pragmatic idealist.” He even supports nuclear power as a necessary evil in the fight against climate change — a position that has drawn the ire of some environmentalists. “Global warming is the most pressing environmental problem humankind has ever faced,” he says. “We can’t push any potential solution off the table.” The challenge of storing radioactive waste, Lash insists, pales in comparison to the floods, violent storms and droughts that are increasing as a result of global warming.

An avid skier and sailor, Lash used to own 13 motorcycles — but stopped riding after his youngest daughter threatened to get one for herself. A Harvard graduate, he started off as a federal litigator, switching to environmental law after he grew weary of putting people in jail. His hard-bitten pragmatism about climate change is paying off. He helped DuPont cut its climate-warming pollution by 65 percent — five years ahead of schedule. He worked with Starbucks to obtain 5 percent of the electricity for its North American retail stores from renewable sources, and with IBM to dramatically boost the energy efficiency of its factories and products.

Lash, 60, believes that a growing number of corporate leaders are ready to back a strong federal cap on climate-warming pollution. “It’s enough to make even a gloomy environmentalist hopeful,” he says. The irony, he notes, is that a president who boasts of his business degree is bucking the industry trend. “Everyone predicted that George Bush was going to be the ‘CEO president,’” Lash says. “But if he truly had business savvy, he’d be following the path of these trailblazers.”

THE HYDROGEN PROFESSOR

Dr. Bragi Árnason

Can a single nation completely eliminate its consumption of oil and coal, meeting all of its fuel needs entirely through hydrogen? That’s what Iceland plans to do in the next 40 years, thanks to the pioneering efforts of Bragi Árnason. Known as “Professor Hydrogen,” the University of Iceland scientist has turned his nation into a testing ground for the world’s most advanced experiment in renewable energy. Prompted by Árnason’s crusade, the university has teamed up with Shell and DaimlerChrysler to wean the country from its annual dependence on 6 million barrels of imported oil, converting every bus, car and boat on the island to hydrogen. “If they can demonstrate that an economy run on renewable energy is viable,” says Kert Davies of Greenpeace, “it will be an enormous precedent for the world to follow.”

Árnason, who has been pushing his vision of a hydrogen future for nearly 30 years, was long regarded as something of an eccentric. “He was the preacher in the desert — very few people listened to him,” says Thorsteinn Sigfusson, a fellow professor. “Now he is the founding father of hydrogen, well-known all over Iceland.”

Following Árnason’s blueprint, the city of Reykjavík is transforming its bus fleet into hydrogen vehicles. Árnason concedes that switching the entire country to fuel cells won’t be easy: It takes energy to produce hydrogen — energy that usually comes from the very fossil fuels it’s meant to replace. But Iceland already produces nearly all of its electricity from geothermal and hydroelectric power, giving it a clean, homegrown way to separate hydrogen molecules from water. By the time the country is finished implementing Árnason’s vision, it will have cut its climate-warming pollution in half.

Árnason, 70, doesn’t expect to be around to witness that day — but his four daughters and eight grandchildren will be. The professor, who rides horses across Iceland for weeks at a time, says his country’s future will look much like its past. “When the Vikings settled in Iceland, they used only renewable energy like wind, sun and wood,” he notes. “The Icelanders were in the ‘first solar-energy civilization’ — and so was the whole world. Now we are finding our way out of the fossil-fuel era, back into the ‘second solar-energy civilization.’ And, in the end, the same will also be the case for the rest of the world.”

THE PIED PIPER

Greg Nickels

Earlier this year, as the rest of the industrialized world prepared to implement the Kyoto Protocol to reduce global warming, Greg Nickels was frustrated to see the United States sitting on the sidelines. So the Seattle mayor decided that if “the White House isn’t going to make it happen from the top down, America’s cities can and will make it happen from the ground up.”

In February, Nickels introduced the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, calling on municipalities to meet Kyoto’s targets — reducing greenhouse gases to below 1990 levels. So far, 187 mayors from major cities in 38 states have signed the agreement, and Nickels hopes to double the number next year. “He’s making global warming the focus of the next great grass-roots revolution,” says New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. “Let’s face it — if we wait around for the feds to act on global warming, nothing is going to happen.”

Nickels, 50, got involved in politics when he dropped out of the University of Washington to volunteer for the Young Democrats. Under his initiative, cities from Miami and Atlanta to Denver and Los Angeles are implementing a host of climate-control strategies: adding bike paths and bus routes, planting trees to absorb CO2, buying hybrid cruisers for police, pushing local utilities to use more renewable energy, and using energy-efficient light bulbs in street lamps and stoplights. By cutting their emissions, cities have already saved a total of $700 million — smacking down Bush’s claim that Kyoto would destroy the economy.

When it comes to global warming, cities are both the problem and the solution. They account for 78 percent of all climate-warming emissions — but they may possess enough purchasing power to actually alter the weather. “We buy car fleets, buses, construction equipment, computer systems, light bulbs,” says Nickels, whose city’s economy is larger than Ireland’s. “If we invest in efficient technologies, that can have huge implications for climate change.”

THE PROFITEER

Jeff Immelt

As the CEO of General Electric, Jeff Immelt is interested in global warming for only one reason: the bottom line. “Rest assured, I am not tackling climate concerns because it’s moral or trendy or good for P.R.,” he says. “The biggest driver for me is business potential: It will accelerate economic growth.” In May, Immelt announced that G.E. is doubling its annual R&D spending on clean technology to $1.5 billion — developing a dizzying array of wind turbines, hybrid-engine trains, state-of-the-art jet engines, zero-emission coal plants and superefficient home appliances. In return, the 49-year-old chairman expects to double revenues from those same inventions, taking in $20 billion a year by 2010. “Immelt is the tipping point,” says Joel Makower of Clean Edge, a leading green-business consulting firm. “Where he goes on climate, industry will follow.”

Immelt, whose company is one of the world’s biggest polluters, is part of a growing push by industry to cash in on the business opportunities presented by global warming. In October, Wal-Mart unveiled a plan to invest $500 million annually to make its stores and trucks more energy efficient. Whether such corporate giants follow through on their commitments remains to be seen — but as companies and consumers search for replacements for fossil fuels, Immelt is banking on GE’s ability to supply them with cleaner machines. “We now live in a carbon-constrained world where the amount of CO2 must be reduced,” he says. “GE has built a history on solving the world’s toughest problems, and this one is no exception.”

Immelt majored in math at Dartmouth, where he was an active frat member and “Animal House” fan, before getting an MBA at Harvard and going to work for G.E. at age 27. As CEO, he has ordered the company to boost its own energy efficiency by 30 percent over the next seven years and to reduce its projected pollution by 40 percent. To the shock of environmental advocates and industry colleagues, he has also called for a federal policy to reduce global warming.

“Industry cannot solve the problems of the world alone,” he says. “We need to work in concert with government.”

THE BIG-THREE FOE

Dan Becker

“Convincing the automotive industry to change their business practices,” says Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club’s global warming program, “is like pushing a Suburban up a mountain with your nose.” Still, Becker has shouldered that Sisyphean task for the last 16 years, lobbying on Capitol Hill and in Detroit’s corporate suites for stricter fuel-economy standards and improved environmental design.

“Every gallon of gas we burn produces 28 pounds of global warming,” Becker explains. “And the biggest single step we can take to curb global warming is to make cars go further on their fuel.”

Becker has taken that challenge not only to the federal government but also straight into America’s garages. When Toyota and Honda introduced their first hybrid models in 2000, the Sierra Club gave both companies its first-ever award for environmental excellence. Then, with the aid of a former Big Three automotive adman, Becker helped launch the Sierra Club’s “I Will Evolve” campaign. It aimed at educating and exciting young people about hybrid vehicles and alternative fuel sources, with the conviction that they can set car trends, just as they do for fashion and music.

This summer, after decades of publicly castigating Ford for its atrocious fuel-economy record (Becker calls the Ford Excursion the “Ford Valdez”), the environmentalist offered the automaker a carrot rather than a stick. In return for Ford’s pledge to cut its fleet’s global warming emissions by 40 percent by the year 2030, Becker said the Sierra Club would publicly support the new Mercury Mariner hybrid SUV.

Although encouraged by the incremental change he has seen, Becker is aware that the relationship between the Sierra Club and the car industry remains a tenuous peace. In 2004, Becker helped steer a law through the California Legislature that establishes the world’s strictest emissions standards — aiming to cut auto exhaust levels by 25 percent by 2016. Canada recently adopted the new standards, and 10 Northeastern and Pacific states are poised to do the same.

The chain reaction has sent shock waves into the auto industry, and last winter the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers filed suit against the state of California, challenging not only the new standards but also the Legislature’s right to set the rules in the first place. “They’re gearing up for a big fight,” Becker says. “It won’t be easy, but I believe we can win. This is the tipping point, and once we get past it, all of America will be able to breathe easier.”

THE DEVELOPER

Robert Congel

Robert Congel wants you to know that Destiny USA is not just another mall. The 800-acre resort, slated to open in his hometown of Syracuse, N.Y., in 2009, will be the largest man-made structure on earth. Designs for the $20 billion complex include 1,000 shops and restaurants, 80,000 hotel rooms in 12 high-rise towers, a 40,000-seat arena, performance theaters, and a 200-acre climate-controlled recreational biosphere.

But here’s the capper: The entire development will be built and operated without burning a single gallon of fossil fuel. Bulldozers. cranes and construction trucks will run on biodiesel. The completed mini-city will be powered by wind turbines, solar panels and hydrogen fuel cells. Food in Destiny USA restaurants will be organically or locally grown. The jolly green mall, Congel explains, is “a gigantic research lab disguised as a resort.” As the biggest renewable-energy development in the world, Destiny USA will be a new paradigm for a clean future.

The 70-year-old Congel is famous for malling the Northeast. Twenty-five of his complexes dot the area. The ambitious developer first envisioned Destiny USA as a Mall of America for upstate New York, a tourist attraction to boost the area’s economy. Then he visited the D-day beaches of Normandy with his family in 2001. Walking among the graves of tens of thousands of American soldiers, he says, left him with a nagging question: What have you done for this wonderful country that gave you all these blessings? Shortly after returning from Normandy, the self-described “profit-motivated guy” saw the dark side of our oil-drunk world.

“Nobody wants to see these kids coming back from Iraq with their legs shot off or in body bags, just for oil,” he says. Congel, who began his career as a “ditch-digging contractor,” is confident that projects like Destiny USA can help America wean itself from oil and preserve our standard of living. After all, he is talking about building a new paradise of consumerism. “I think we can live responsibly and have a better lifestyle than we have now,” Congel says.

THE FUTURIST

Martin Hoffert

To borrow an old phrase, Martin Hoffert sees the world of tomorrow today. “We’re using fossil fuels a million times faster than nature is making fossil fuels,” he says. “That’s a shock to the system.” What also may be a shock are the alternative energy sources that Hoffert, a physics professor at New York University, has tapped to combat global warming.

Take, for instance, his notion of wiring the entire planet with thousands of miles of superconductor cables to transmit electricity efficiently. Conceivably, we could create one huge energy grid, where Beijing could buy electricity from Boise. Then there’s his plan for suspending turbines in the jet stream to harness wind power. And don’t overlook his idea for sparking nuclear fusion by extracting helium-3 from the atmospheres of Jupiter and Neptune, rendering the entire solar system a “Persian Gulf” for planet Earth.

At the moment, Hoffert is focused on space-based solar power: giant orbiting satellites containing huge photovoltaic cells that would capture sunlight and beam it to Earth to generate energy. There is about eight times more sunlight in space than on Earth, he points out, and a solar power satellite — as opposed to planetside solar panels — would not be hindered by night or cloudy weather. Earlier this year, Hoffert joined his son Eric (a former Bell Labs scientist) to launch a company called Versatility Energy to explore the applications of space solar technology.

Hoffert first saw unmistakable signs of global warming while studying climate change at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. His research led him to the conclusion that the increase in levels of carbon in the environment, generated by humans and their machines, was a significant source of the warming.

“In the long run,” he says, “if we burn the whole fossil-fuel reserve, we have the potential for an incredibly adverse transformation of the world’s ecosystem.”

“Climate Warriors and Heroes” written by Ira Boudway, J.J. Helland, Sarah Karnasiewicz, Aaron Kinney, Amanda Griscom Little, Katharine Mieszkowski and Page Rockwell.

Republican climate folly

As temperatures break records, the GOP holds firm: The less we know about global warming, the better

Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the Department of Water Resources, stands in a snow-free meadow at Echo Summit, Calif. Warm spring weather, combined with lower then normal precipitation, caused the statewide snowpack water content to be only 40 percent of normal for this time of year. (Credit: AP/Rich Pedroncelli)

Whatever adjective you choose — ironic? tragic? ludicrous? — the outcome of a series of budget votes held in the GOP-controlled House on Tuesday was definitely interesting. The chamber was wrangling over a series of amendments to an appropriations bill for the Departments of Commerce and Justice. The battle line was drawn between senior Republicans trying to resist further spending cuts, and young Turks looking to slash and burn.

In every case but one, the senior Republicans (with the help of Democrats) proved victorious. The lone exception? An amendment proposed by Maryland’s Andy Harris, cutting $542,000 in funding for a climate website at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

After all, who needs more information about the climate? It’s not like there’s been anything weird going on with the weather lately.

Oh wait. On the same day that the House voted to reduce funding for NOAA, the agency announced that the United States had just recorded its warmest 12-month period of temperatures since records started being kept in 1895.

The Washington Post provided some highlights of the report:

In the last year, the U.S. has experienced its second hottest summer, fourth warmest winter (December through February) and warmest March on record. And NCDC announced April 2012 was third warmest on record…

The degree by which some states and regions have exceeded their norms so far this year is incredible, and record-setting… The U.S. Climate Extremes Index – that tracks extremes in temperatures, precipitation and tropical cyclones – showed a record 42 percent of the country experienced extreme weather during the first four months of the year, primarily exceptional warmth.

The amendment’s author, Andy Harris, is the chairman of a House Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment. He has previously criticized NOAA’s funding requests for a climate-related initiative on the grounds that “the climate services could become little propaganda sources instead of a science source.”

So, for fear of being exposed to propaganda, we’ll just stick our heads in the sand and wait until our asses fry off. I guess it’s better not to know what’s happening to the planet, if we’re not going to do anything about it anyway.

Continue Reading Close
Andrew Leonard

Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21.

Global warming hits home

After a year of freakish and destructive weather, Americans are finally waking up to the dangers of climate change

Houses were severely damaged after Hurricane Irene came through Bethel, Vt. on August 28, 2011 (Credit: U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service - Northeast Region / CC BY 2.0)
This originally appeared on TomDispatch.

The Williams River was so languid and lovely last Saturday morning that it was almost impossible to imagine the violence with which it must have been running on August 28, 2011. And yet the evidence was all around: sand piled high on its banks, trees still scattered as if by a giant’s fist, and most obvious of all, a utilitarian temporary bridge where for 140 years a graceful covered bridge had spanned the water.

The YouTube video of that bridge crashing into the raging river was Vermont’s iconic image from its worst disaster in memory, the record flooding that followed Hurricane Irene’s rampage through the state in August 2011.  It claimed dozens of lives, as it cut more than a billion-dollar swath of destruction across the eastern United States.

I watched it on TV in Washington just after emerging from jail, having been arrested at the White House during mass protests of the Keystone XL pipeline. Since Vermont’s my home, it took the theoretical — the ever more turbulent, erratic and dangerous weather that the tar sands pipeline from Canada would help ensure — and made it all too concrete. It shook me bad.

And I’m not the only one.

New data released last month by researchers at Yale and George Mason universities show that a lot of Americans are growing far more concerned about climate change, precisely because they’re drawing the links between freaky weather, a climate kicked off-kilter by a fossil-fuel guzzling civilization and their own lives. After a year with a record number of multi-billion dollar weather disasters, seven in ten Americans now believe that “global warming is affecting the weather.” No less striking, 35 percent of the respondents reported that extreme weather had affected them personally in 2011.  As Yale’s Anthony Laiserowitz told the New York Times, “People are starting to connect the dots.”

Which is what we must do. As long as this remains one abstract problem in the long list of problems, we’ll never get to it.  There will always be something going on each day that’s more important, including, if you’re facing flood or drought, the immediate danger.

But in reality, climate change is actually the biggest thing that’s going on every single day.  If we could only see that pattern we’d have a fighting chance. It’s like one of those trompe l’oeil puzzles where you can only catch sight of the real picture by holding it a certain way. So this weekend we’ll be doing our best to hold our planet a certain way so that the most essential pattern is evident. At 350.org, we’re organizing a global day of action that’s all about dot-connecting; in fact, you can follow the action at climatedots.org.

The day will begin in the Marshall Islands of the far Pacific, where the sun first rises on our planet, and where locals will hold a daybreak underwater demonstration on their coral reef already threatened by rising seas. They’ll hold, in essence, a giant dot — and so will our friends in Bujumbura, Burundi, where March flooding destroyed 500 homes. In Dakar, Senegal, they’ll mark the tidal margins of recent storm surges.  In Adelaide, Australia, activists will host a “dry creek regatta” to highlight the spreading drought down under.

Pakistani farmers — some of the millions driven from their homes by unprecedented flooding over the last two years — will mark the day on the banks of the Indus; in Ayuthaya, Thailand, Buddhist monks will protest next to a temple destroyed by December’s epic deluges that also left the capital, Bangkok, awash.

Activists in Ulanbataar will focus on the ongoing effects of drought in Mongolia.  In Daegu, South Korea, students will gather with bags of rice and umbrellas to connect the dots between climate change, heavy rains, and the damage caused to South Korea’s rice crop in recent years. In Amman, Jordan, Friends of the Earth Middle East will be forming a climate dot on the shores of the Dead Sea to draw attention to how climate-change-induced drought has been shrinking that sea.

In Herzliya, Israel, people will form a dot on the beach to stand in solidarity with island nations and coastal communities around the world that are feeling the impact of climate change. In newly freed Libya, students will hold a teach-in.  In Oman, elders will explain how the weather along the Persian Gulf has shifted in their lifetimes. There will be actions in the cloud forests of Costa Rica, and in the highlands of Peru where drought has wrecked the lives of local farmers.  In Monterrey, Mexico, they’ll recall last year’s floods that did nearly $2 billion in damage. In Chamonix, France, climbers will put a giant red dot on the melting glaciers of the Alps.

And across North America, as the sun moves westward, activists in Halifax, Canada, will “swim for survival” across its bay to highlight rising sea levels, while high-school students in Nashville, Tennessee, will gather on a football field inundated by 2011’s historic killer floods.

In Portland, Oregon, city dwellers will hold an umbrella-decorating party to commemorate March’s record rains. In Bandelier, New Mexico, firefighters in full uniform will remember last year’s record forest fires and unveil the new solar panels on their fire station.  In Miami, Manhattan, and Maui, citizens will line streets that scientists say will eventually be underwater. In the high Sierra, on one of the glaciers steadily melting away, protesters will unveil a giant banner with just two words, a quote from that classic of western children’s literature, ”The Wizard of Oz.” “I’m Melting” it will say, in letters three-stories high.

This is a full-on fight between information and disinformation, between the urge to witness and the urge to cover-up. The fossil-fuel industry has funded endless efforts to confuse people, to leave an impression that nothing much is going on.  But — as with the tobacco industry before them — the evidence has simply gotten too strong.

Once you saw enough people die of lung cancer, you made the connection. The situation is the same today.  Now, it’s not just the scientists and the insurance industry; it’s your neighbors. Even pleasant weather starts to seem weird.  Fifteen thousand U.S. temperature records were broken, mainly in the East and Midwest, in the month of March alone, as a completely unprecedented heat wave moved across the continent.  Most people I met enjoyed the rare experience of wearing shorts in winter, but they were still shaking their heads. Something was clearly wrong and they knew it.

The one institution in our society that isn’t likely to be much help in spreading the news is… the news. Studies show our papers and TV channels paying ever less attention to our shifting climate.  In fact, in 2011 ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox spent twice as much time discussing Donald Trump as global warming. Don’t expect representatives from Saturday’s Connect the Dots day to show up on Sunday’s talk shows.  Over the last three years, those inside-the-Beltway extravaganzas have devoted 98 minutes total to the planet’s biggest challenge. Last year, in fact, all the Sunday talk shows spent exactly nine minutes of Sunday talking time on climate change — and here’s a shock: all of it was given over to Republican politicians in the great denial sweepstakes.

So here’s a prediction: Next Sunday, no matter how big and beautiful the demonstrations may be that we’re mounting across the world, “Face the Nation” and “Meet the Press” won’t be connecting the dots. They’ll be gassing along about Newt Gingrich’s retirement from the presidential race or Mitt Romney’s coming nomination, and many of the commercials will come from oil companies lying about their environmental efforts. If we’re going to tell this story — and it’s the most important story of our time — we’re going to have to tell it ourselves.

To stay on top of important articles like these, sign up to receive the latest updates from TomDispatch.com here.

Continue Reading Close

Bill McKibben is the Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College, and founder of the global climate campaign 350.org. His latest book is "Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet.".

Every country for itself

As American power wanes, we're being faced with a dangerous new power vacuum. An expert explains what's next

For the first time in nearly a century, the world doesn’t have a clear set of leaders. A generation ago, the G-7 – France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States and Canada – not only powered the global economy, they also, for better or worse, made the decisions that determined the outcome of the entire world. But over the last several years, the dynamic has changed.

According to a widely discussed 2010 report by London’s Standard Chartered Bank, the world has entered a new “‘super-cycle” in which traditional economic hierarchies are being upended. Ever since the financial crisis, the U.S. has lost the economic strength and force of will to be the world’s policeman. The number of Americans, for example, who believe the U.S. should “mind its own business internationally” has spiked to a level unseen since the 1950s. Meanwhile, new powers, like China, India and Brazil, have been unwilling to fill the power vacuum the U.S. has left behind. One could argue that this is a nice change from America’s aggressive past interventionism, but it has also helped create the global stalemate on everything from global warming to humanitarianism in Syria. And it’s a fact that has the potential to radically affect our future, both in positive and negative ways.

According to Ian Bremmer, the author of the new book “Every Nation for Itself,” the rise of the “G-Zero” means the world has entered a transformative new phase — which will be more chaotic, uncooperative and dangerous. In his book, he charts how America assumed the burden of global leadership in the wake of World War II, and how institutions like the United Nations, NATO, the G-7 and the IMF helped it dictate the international agenda for much of the past century. He also explains how the breakdown of those (often problematic) institutions is now hurting our ability to marshal global leaders to deal with some of the greatest threats facing our planet. Bremmer, the head of a global political risk research firm who has written for the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek and Foreign Affairs, believes that this new dynamic could lead us to a new, more egalitarian world — or to a new Cold War.

Salon spoke to Bremmer over the phone about America’s new isolationism, the cyber-attack threat and why China will never replace the USA.

You start off the book by talking about the Copenhagen climate summit. What does the outcome of that conference tell us about the changing dynamics in the world?

Frankly, the only success that was had at that summit was that Queen Margaret of Denmark managed to avoid sitting next to Mugabe from Zimbabwe. There had been so much buildup to this summit, that the climate is incredibly important and we’ve all finally gotten to the point where we agree that something needs to be done. It seemed like the classic area that you could get some form of global agreement on. Of course we came away with absolutely nothing.

Following the Copenhagen summit we haven’t pushed harder to get stuff done, we’ve actually just moderated our expectations. Every country is prioritizing its own very strong agenda and there’s an absence of acceptance of what the global road map should look like, what the global architecture should look like. This dynamic is increasingly true in so many aspects of the world, whether we talk about the election of a new president of the World Bank, or on how you fund the IMF (and what you do with the money once it’s there), global trade initiatives, security issues in places like Syria, sanctions on Iran, bailing out the Europeans.  I mean, really the principal dynamic in the world today is the fact that there just isn’t anyone driving the bus.  We don’t have a G-20. We have a G-Zero.

Why is the G-7 an anachronism?

The G-7 is an anachronism in the same way that the United Nations Security Council is an anachronism, in the same way that the old structure of the IMF and the World Bank is an anachronism. All of that stuff basically came out of World War II, when the United States was the dominant power in the world, and it created a world order using its own capital, using its allies, building up its allies, prioritizing its values and its interests. And that world order functioned very well for us for decades but of course over the last 30 years, the underlying balance of power shifted away from this G-1 environment toward China. It hasn’t shifted to China — it’s not as if China is now the new superpower — but toward China, and away from the developed world toward the developing world, and away from debtor states toward creditor states.  When the underlying balance of power no longer in any way reflects the global architecture that you have, then at some point, clearly, a shock will come along that will be big enough to crash that system.

The end of the Soviet Union was not big enough to make that happen, and 9/11 was not big enough to make that happen, but the 2008 financial crisis was big enough. And that effectively made the G-7 an anachronism. And it did so in part, of course, because it showed some of the vulnerabilities of the U.S.-led free market system; it certainly made it harder for the Americans to rally the emerging markets behind their values and preferences. But more important, the Europeans have been almost completely absent from the global stage over the past four years, and frankly so have the Japanese, with their 17 prime ministers in 22 years. And by the way, I strongly feel this is not a book about U.S. decline. I actually don’t believe the U.S. is in decline. It’s much more a book about the fact that the United States is not going to do this stuff anymore and its allies certainly are not coming along, but nobody else is either.

What happened after World War II to propel America to this position?

Well, it wasn’t just that they helped win the war, it was that the economies and infrastructures of the other countries — both victors and vanquished – were utterly destroyed, and the United States rebuilt them. Of course, that was the Marshall Plan. And that also was MacArthur in Japan. So the U.S. basically built up both its allies as well as the vanquished Japanese who surrendered, to create folks that would support a U.S.-led global system. And that worked very effectively indeed.

In polls, more and more Americans want a kind of inward focus and less involvement in the world stage — an issue that’s also played itself out in the Republican primary. Why do you think that is? 

The reason why I make the point that this book is not about whether or not the U.S. is in decline is because it’s very clear that America is the world’s largest economy, and more important, even if it weren’t, even when China becomes the largest, richest economy, China will still be a poor country. If the Americans wanted to remove Assad from power in Syria they surely could. If America wanted to bail the Europeans out they surely could; we have the money. It’s also true that if we wanted to balance our budget, we could, but we don’t. The political will doesn’t exist for that. And so much of that has to do with the political system, and it has to do also with the inward-lookingness of the U.S.

I happen to think that there has been this significant “coming apart” within the United States of the top 10 percent and the bottom 90 percent economically. But that coming apart within the U.S. is also being mirrored by a coming apart globally. And that there aren’t many Americans that are prepared to support the U.S. as the world’s policeman anymore. There aren’t many Americans that are prepared to say they benefit from U.S.-led globalization. With the levels of unemployment that exist in the U.S., with manufacturing jobs that have gone away and aren’t coming back, with Katrina and New Orleans not getting rebuilt, large numbers of Americans are saying, “We do not see the benefit from all of what the U.S. has been doing internationally.” And that will make it politically inconceivable for the U.S. to do the kind of things that it did when it was putting together the old world order. I mean, Geithner can get on a plane and go to Europe and give as much advice as he wants to. But there’s nowhere near the level of political support in the United States for the Americans to pull off another Marshall Plan in Europe, or anything remotely close to that.

And even in the case of Libya, which of course is the big intervention that happened after the 2008 financial crisis, look at what actually happened. The U.S. did not want to do it. Everyone hated Gadhafi — U.S. enemies, U.S. allies. The Brits and the French said, You’ve gotta remove this guy. And only then did the U.S. say they would, and still the U.S. did not have troops on the ground. In some ways, Libya is the exception that proves the rule, that whether we’re talking about trade or climate or security or the European crisis, all of these are issues where we’re just not going to see the kind of leadership anywhere that we have historically.

I think many people would see this as a positive decline in so-called American imperialism.

Well, first of all there’s no question that American intervention on the military side has been seen as problematic. But for every country that sees it as problematic, others have seen it as something essential. You can talk about Marshall Plan, the role that the U.S. has played in the World Bank and the IMF, the importance of the Peace Corps and all of this sort of stuff – these have been organizations that generally have been very welcomed in terms of the benefit for the common good.

A few years ago, I remember reading endless magazine articles about how China was going to become the new superpower, and we’ll all be learning Mandarin in grade school. You don’t think that’s going to be the case. 

I put that into strong question and there are a number of reasons for it. The first is that for the Chinese to continue to succeed they need to fundamentally restructure both their economy and their political system. They’re aware of this. It’s an enormous challenge, it’s never been attempted with a country remotely the size of China, and they’ll need to do it relatively quickly.  First of all, there are no guarantees that they will succeed and, even assuming that they succeed, or they even succeed sufficiently to stave off various crises, when China becomes the world’s largest economy, it will still be a poor country. And I don’t think we sufficiently appreciate how different that will be. They will be focused much more on ensuring that they can provide the minimum form of employment and growth and commodity inputs for their own people. The United States is a rich country. The U.S. can easily afford to spend a lot of time helping to provide public goods, acting as a global policeman across the world, and it’s done that for over a century, again for good and for bad. The Chinese will not be prepared to play that role.

Look at what China’s doing in the Middle East: They are interested in defending very narrow interests – economic and security interests. It’s easy for the United States to say, we want to do more on the global environment, because the average American is paying attention.  The average Chinese person has a very different view of the global environment. They want a car. They want their kids to be able to have an apartment. They want a proper education. Hundreds of millions of them want to get out of absolute poverty.

The last few decades have been sort of notable, because there’s been relatively little death and conflict around the globe, compared to other periods of time in global history — a point made by the recent book, “The War on War.” What do you think the G-Zero environment means for the security of the world?

Clearly we’re going to see much more conflict in this environment. And the question is what kind of conflict it will be. I tend to not see this as a world where we’re going to have military and the sort of conventional warfare between major powers. Compared to the pre-WWII environment, there’s so much more interlinkage between the economies of countries. But having said that, we’re definitely seeing a fragmentation of the world order, compared to a globalization and statelessness that had been driven by the United States at the order of the global markets over the past decade. What does that mean? Well, first of all it means we’ll see much more cyber-conflict. Much more industrial espionage. Much more direct and overt conflict between states and corporations. More protectionism.  More industrial policy. Those sorts of things, I think we will see more conflict overall. I think that can spill over into military conflict regionally that won’t necessarily involve the United States.

In a G-Zero environment the Middle East is much more problematic. Because absent strong US, European, Japanese, Chinese or Russian intervention, what you end up having is the Saudis, the Iranians, and the Turks playing much greater roles in terms of diplomacy and political influence, economic influence, military influence.  Those countries support completely different outcomes. Clearly that means more sectarian conflict.  We’re not going to see more integration in the Middle East, we’re going to see more disintegration, more fragmentation, more confrontation.

In the book you also suggest that we’ll be see the rise of privatized warfare, using contractors like the company formerly known as Blackwater. I find that a worrisome prediction.

You know, absent U.S. intervention, you are likely to see many more local arms races, like India vs. China, for example. But you’ll also see the privatization of warfare, where countries with cash will be buying mercenaries that are well-trained, whatever they can afford, and they’ll be doing the fighting for them. And that will also be true in terms of folks that can engage in cyber-warfare and folks that can protect you from cyber-warfare. In a G-Zero environment, fighting of all sorts gets fragmented.

How does this affect our ability to deal with global warming?

Well, this is one of the problems I have today with the political debate. You’ve got so many people out there who are saying, “Global warming is horrible and we have to do something.” But it’s fairly obvious that we’re not going to. And again, it’s not as if the world has never been capable of dealing with climate problems.  You remember, we had a hole in the ozone, and I believe it was in 1976 that there was this Montreal protocol that was going to stop putting the CFCs in the atmosphere.  And it was effective.

It’s very clear that this climate issue, as you mentioned, is a much, much bigger order of baggage. It’s going to cause a lot of death, a lot of displacement. There will be winners as well. There will be folks who are successful economically out of climate change, but overall, it’s a negative for the world economy, and it is inconceivable in a G-Zero environment that you’re going to move efficiently even toward the beginning of a global solution, and so what will happen is you will have local solutions.  Local solutions will not be coordinated, they will be less efficient, and they will focus on those issues that are most important to individual governments directly. In the case of the Maldives, they’ll buy land and they’ll move. In the case of China, they’ll focus on issues that are impacting their domestic population, without worrying about what they’re doing to the global public commons in terms of emitting pollutants into the air. As they need to industrialize but they’ll focus much more on water, for example, because they desperately need that water for themselves.

And the U.S. and others will start focusing on geo-engineering — looking at what can be done to potentially artificially lower temperatures and create cloud cover and, you know, all of these sort of things which 10 years ago were fanciful but now increasingly people are starting to look into seriously.  But the issue is that those solutions will not be taken globally.  And what will be seen as a solution by one country or a set of like-minded countries might actually be seen as very strongly against the interest of other countries and other actors.

What countries do you think are going to be helped by this new G-Zero arrangement?

There are a group of countries that I think will do particularly well in this environment and I call them pivot states. The reason I focus on these pivot states is in a G-Zero environment you need to not just focus on growth — because there’s so much more volatility in the world, you need to focus on growth and resilience together. It’s countries that are able to hedge and adapt between different models of growth and integration, that don’t get captured by any individual large country [that will thrive] and certain countries are particularly good at doing that.

Canada’s really good at doing that. If Obama doesn’t want to do the Keystone pipeline, there are a lot of Chinese that want to have access to Canadian energy. As climate change occurs, the Canadians will have this northern shipping route, which will help them to have access to folks all over the world and will help them have access to Arctic resources. They sell more timber in British Columbia to China now than they do the United States, and that’s very interesting. Singapore pivots very well. Kazakhstan increasingly pivots well where Mongolia, nearby, actually doesn’t because they’re much more in the pocket of the Chinese. I would argue that Indonesia pivots relatively well, Turkey pivots quite well. Mexico doesn’t. Ukraine doesn’t.

You claim there are a few possible outcome scenarios from the G-Zero world. What are they? 

The G-Zero is not the next world order. It is a global power vacuum that is not sustainable. Something will fill it, because crises will continue to grow and not be resolved and so that very process will lead to something new.  And the question is what that something new is. And I think to understand what’s coming next there are two questions you need to answer. The first is, what will be the relationship of the United States and China toward each other: Will they be relatively cooperative or relatively competitive? And the second is how much do other countries matter; do they matter a little or a lot? If you can answer those two questions you have a really good sense of where the world is going.

The only one of my scenarios that gets you to a G-20 that actually works is one where the U.S. and China have relatively harmonious relations and other countries matter a lot. So far we are not moving in that direction. So far we’ve been moving into an environment where the U.S. and China have more confrontational relations and we’re moving toward an environment where other countries are indeed likely to play a fairly significant role. So you’ll end up with a world of regions.  That’s a much more inefficient environment and it’s one where pivoting is absolutely critical.

The other two possibilities are one where the U.S. and China have good relations and other countries don’t matter: That’s the G-2 path. That’s an environment where pivoting doesn’t matter so much but where nothing gets resolved unless it happens to be a priority on the agendas of both the United States and China.  The U.S. does relatively well in that environment, actually, and so does the dollar. The other environment is the one where no one can pivot and that’s if the U.S. and China have bad relations and other countries don’t matter very much, and that is really a bipolar cold war. It’s by far the worst of all outcomes, though it’s not actually the one I expect.

But this is very much in process. Countries are in play right now, geopolitics are in play. We are in a process of creative destruction, globally, that hasn’t occurred since after WWII.

Continue Reading Close
Thomas Rogers

Thomas Rogers is Salon's Arts Editor.

The Maldives’ ousted president on climate change and tyranny

Ousted in a February coup, Mohamed Nasheed talks global warming, Islamic radicals and "The Island President"

Mohamed Nasheed in "The Island President"

It would be too optimistic to claim that the 2009 Copenhagen Summit represented a breakthrough or turning point in the battle against climate change. But it was the first moment when the United States, China and India — the world’s biggest polluters — all agreed in principle to reduce carbon emissions, and as symbolic statements go, that one was pretty big. Copenhagen also catapulted a most unlikely head of state to pop-star status, at least within the worldwide environmental movement. Mohamed Nasheed, who was then the president of the Maldives — Asia’s smallest country, both in area and population — emerged as the developing world’s most charismatic and dynamic spokesman on the causes, and the costs, of global warming.

A British-educated democratic activist who had been tortured in prison during the 30-year dictatorship of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Nasheed was the surprise winner of a 2008 election that followed a popular uprising against the regime. In addition to pursuing an ambitious agenda of liberalization and modernization within his entirely Islamic nation, Nasheed seized upon climate change as an international clarion call. And no wonder — the Maldives is an Indian Ocean archipelago of several hundred inhabited islands (and fewer than 350,000 people), with a median altitude of 1.5 meters above sea level. As Nasheed says in Jon Shenk’s extraordinarily compelling documentary film, “The Island President,” it is a nation without a single hill. Nasheed has traveled the world describing the Maldives as the Poland of global warming — meaning, of course, Poland in 1939. If his country cannot be saved from rising sea levels, he maintains, then there may be no saving Tokyo or Mumbai or New Orleans or New York.

Shenk got extraordinary access to the inner workings of Nasheed’s administration, attending cabinet meetings in Malé, the Maldivian capital, and traveling with Nasheed to address the British Parliament and the United Nations. We watch Nasheed and his advisors hatching the plan to make the Maldives the world’s first carbon-neutral nation — not because it will make any practical difference, but because it will stand as a moral example that might shame the big emitters into doing something. (“At least we will die knowing we did the right thing,” he says.) Most fascinating of all, we observe the backroom deal that Nasheed helped broker in Copenhagen, where he served as a critical emissary between his Western allies (notably the British and Australian prime ministers) and the Chinese and Indian delegations, which viewed any climate deal as an unfair limitation on their right to self-development.

“The Island President” had been playing at film festivals for more than a year, to widespread acclaim, when an unexpected political twist lent it a new urgency. In early February, Nasheed was forced to resign the presidency in what he says was a coup d’état staged by Gayoom and his supporters, including radical Islamists who opposed his reforms. As Nasheed wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed a day after his resignation, “Let the Maldives be a lesson for aspiring democrats everywhere: the dictator can be removed in a day, but it can take years to stamp out the lingering remnants of his dictatorship.”

I recently met with Nasheed and filmmaker Jon Shenk, at a private club in downtown Manhattan to discuss “The Island President,” climate change policy and the situation in the Maldives. If the public genuinely supported him, I asked the former president, couldn’t he have resisted the coup. “Yes, I could have remained in power,” he said. “We could have murdered the coup. I could have asked people to go out and start shooting at the police, and finish it. But that would be a very shortsighted way of looking at things.” One can perhaps accuse Nasheed of being too idealistic, or overly optimistic — I’m afraid he undervalues the power of know-nothingism, arrogance and stupidity in American politics, for example. But you can’t say he isn’t taking the long view. (He says that if and when new elections are held in the Maldives, he will definitely run again.)

Mr. President, early in the film there’s a scene where you observe that after you had taken power in 2008 you thought the fight was over, and then you realized it was only beginning. That’s even more prophetic now than it was then.

Mohamed Nasheed: Yes, it is. You know, the dictatorship is back again. We were complacent to think that it would be easy to get rid of a dictatorship. Of course it was not easy to win that election and bring Gayoom down in the first place. But now he is back again, and the fight has to continue. It is very important that democracy be restored in the Maldives, and we hope that friendly governments understand the necessity and the need for it. As we see it now, I’m afraid the government there is going to all sorts of places. Certainly it’s not going democratically, and we need to bring it back.

For people who might not have followed the confusing news reports out of your country, please update us on what’s been going on.

There was a coup, and they overthrew the elected government. The previous dictator, Gayoom, is back, and all his children are back in ministerial posts. All his associates are back in government. Also, what is worse — not only Gayoom is back, but this coup was instigated through Islamic radicalism as well. There is a section of that in the Maldives, and I’m afraid we now have three Islamic radicals in the cabinet. We beat them in three elections, and they were not able to get any position in government. Now, through the coup, they are back, and Gayoom is back. So there is no respect for what the people have said.

And how has the general public reacted to this?

Everyone is out on the streets. There are huge demonstrations going on. People don’t seem to be getting tired. They’re not relenting, and they want to go on and on and on. We hope for a peaceful solution, of course, to what is happening now. We wouldn’t want the country to deteriorate into violence. If we can act quickly, if we can do it now, we will be avoiding a whole bunch of difficulties in the future.

President Obama spent part of his childhood in the Indian Ocean region and has a long-standing personal and political interest in that part of the world. Has he or his administration reached out to you since the coup?

I’m afraid that the United States government was very quick to recognize the status quo. This is very, very sad. I was shocked to see that. I hoped that they would understand, and realign their policies. Now I’m trying to speak to the people of the United States, because of that. We respect the United States and its people so much. We’ve been trying to liberalize the country. We’ve been trying to make it into a more moderate country, and it is sad that our policies were not seen and not backed by the United States. They’re still talking about how they need time; they’re still talking to Gayoom. There’s a game we used to play when we were little: Finders Keepers. It doesn’t matter how you find it, you know! But that’s not how one would support a democracy. I would hope that President Obama would understand what is happening in the Maldives, and I would hope he would lay his weight on the bureaucrats and bring a better political solution to what is happening in our country.

I assume that the new government, the one headed by your former vice president, is not going to address the climate-change issue in the same way you did.

They can’t. You must have a high moral authority to address climate change. Every time you start speaking, you know, you can’t be answering back to the skeletons in your own closet. So it’s not going to be possible for them to articulate in the same manner as a democratic government. I don’t see it happening.

At numerous points in the film, you express personal misgivings about dealing with the compromises and the rhetoric of politics. It makes the film very dramatic, because you seem like such a plainspoken and pragmatic person in a realm of spin and empty words. How frustrating was it, actually being a head of state?

Well, you know, soon you realize this is how governments work. We were elected to show our differences, not to go along with the status quo or to go along with tradition. We were elected to change things, so we did change things. We brought in legislation for a proper tax system. We brought in legislation for social protection programs, including medical care for all. We wanted to liberalize the country, in tune with its older Islamic traditions. We wanted to bring out the women, to empower them. These were all things that we were facing, major challenges. We wanted to reform the judiciary, the military, the police. We could not address all these things, and yes, at times it was frustrating. But we were, I think, delivering on our pledges and that was why Gayoom came back. He knew he could do nothing in elections, so he had to topple me.

Jon, let’s bring you into the conversation. As an outsider who clearly spent a lot of time in the Maldives, did you see the writing on the wall, as far as what happened to Nasheed’s presidency?

Jon Shenk: Anybody visiting the capital or talking to people in government could see from the get-go that the shadow of 30 years of dictatorship loomed heavily over the country. You’re talking about 30 years of autocratic rule, where contracts were given to favored relatives and friends, monopolies were allowed and all that. We would go to cafés in the capital and sit with our Maldivian counterparts to talk about the logistics of filmmaking, and their answers would be given to us in whispers. We’d ask, “Why are you whispering?” and they would say, “Well, you never know who’s in the room. Gayoom’s people could be in the room.” That’s the kind of fear they had. I’d say, “But they’re not in power anymore,” and the answer was, “Oh, but they are. They’re still in the police, they run the opposition parties, they’re trying to undermine us at every stage. And if they do get the presidency back, we’ll be put in prison.”

So that kind of fear really did exist. When the coup happened, it was shocking, and I was worried about Nasheed and others who I’d been working with. But it wasn’t surprising. They really were trying to do an impossible thing in the Maldives, by creating this vision of a modern, liberal, democratic state on the shoulders of years and years of despotism. And by the way, think about what’s going on in Egypt and Tunisia and Libya today. That’s what they’re trying to do, and in some ways what we’re seeing here — two steps forward, one step back — could be a harbinger of what is to come in those countries.

Mr. President, you’ve mentioned the role that Islamic radicals now play in the government. Can you talk about the role that Islam has played historically in the Maldives?

M.N.: Whatever happens in the Middle East also happens in the Maldives, and whatever happens in the Maldives also happens in the Middle East. During the ’70s, Wahhabism and radical Islam, as soon as it started elsewhere, filtered into the Maldives. And then we saw Gayoom coming. He was educated at al-Azhar University [in Egypt], where he was a classmate of Hosni Mubarak. Gayoom came in the late ’70s, and that also fueled the Islamic rhetoric. When he discovered he could no longer control the radicals, he started arresting them and beating them up. That created an underground network of Islamic radicals, and for a long time they were the only organized group in town. The only organized dissent came from them, because [the democratic opposition] were all in jail.

So young people started joining the radical Islamic groups, and by the time we were able to articulate a movement, they were already entrenched. But we were able to beat them in elections, over and over again. We beat them in the presidential election and we beat them in the parliamentary elections. Out of 1,081 local council seats, they won 4, and only because we did not want to contest them there. I felt that they had to be in the game somewhere. My assumption and my feeling is, you know, if we were able to do the things we were working on, without the coup, we would have been able to liberalize the country and address Islamic radicalism through democratic means, without infringing on their human rights and so on. But unfortunately we were not allowed to do that.

So what is the ideology driving Gayoom and his supporters? Or is there any?

No, there’s no ideology behind it. I mean, the ideology is xenophobia and racism. All the rhetoric against Israel and the West, calling everyone a heathen. It’s really narrow-minded and intolerant and nationalistic. This is an island mentality as well, but it’s possible to change that. It’s not the people who have that mentality but the ruling elite, who want to suppress the people through that narrative, that rhetoric.

Jon, this movie has now gotten a lot of publicity that perhaps you did not expect. Is there a danger that the issue you set out to highlight — the importance of climate change, and of President Nasheed’s engagement with the issue — is now being overshadowed by the political context?

J.S.: When you asked earlier whether the new government would carry on the climate battle, the thing is that Waheed, the new president and former vice president, might pay lip service to that. But it totally ignores the important thing that has happened in the Maldives, where Nasheed and his people have been working for 20 years, in a grass-roots, Gandhian struggle for civil rights and good governance and freedom of speech, all that stuff that has happened in so many of the great democracies of the world. The fight against climate change is an extension of that, in President Nasheed’s mind. It’s a fight for human rights. It’s a fight for the right to exist in a healthy environment and to have the freedom that goes along with that. So they’re one and the same. The fact that the film might get a little more publicity because of this political struggle really is one and the same with the struggle on climate change. It sounds naïve, maybe, but you’re struggling for truth and justice. The climate debate is about that, and so is the fight for democracy. Thematically they are the same, and that’s why Nasheed took on the climate fight when he stepped into office. It was an extension of his life’s work.

M.N.: During the ’70s, democracy movements had human rights as a foundation to build on. I feel that now climate issues and human rights are equally important. You have to save the planet as much as save the people, and democracy can be built on that foundation. I would hope that Egyptians, or all the other democracy movements in the Middle East, would find climate change as a track that they have to address. They cannot come into government without understanding climate issues, and what is happening to the environment around them. If you get beaten up as a human being, that’s very bad. When the world gets battered, no one is physically crying, but the planet is. All democracy leaders, all people who want to fight for freedom and justice, must fight for climate as well. In that sense, Jon’s film is timely and necessary. It’s must viewing for anybody with any interest in democracy.

How long do we have to save the Maldives? If nothing is done, when will your country become uninhabitable?

I think the science here is very, very sorted out. We can’t be so silly as to question the science. We have a window of about seven years to start acting now, and if we can’t do that, then I think within the next 70 years or so we will have very serious issues, not just in the Maldives but everywhere. Issues about resources, about water, about migration. Climate migration — there will be a huge exodus of people from place to place. The Pentagon has come out and said that this is a huge national security threat. But elections are fought almost entirely on economic issues. Nobody talks about human rights.

Presumably we’re not going to hear either President Obama or Gov. Romney talking about this issue for the rest of the year. They may talk about gasoline prices, but not about the underlying issues.

No, but the thing is, we do everything that we do for our children. Why are you working? Why am I working? We would not have any policies for ourselves, but we should have policies for our children. I think democratic leaders have been so shortsighted in listening to their advisors: “Oh, no, no, there are huge oil companies who can do this and that. You can’t do this, Mr. President!” You can do it, and you have to do it. You might lose power, but you are saving your children. We can’t have our policies only go as far as their noses, and the next election.

I am sure a new age of politicians is coming, in the United States as well. I still believe that if President Obama would start articulating on climate issues, he would get more votes, not fewer. I am convinced of it. The people of this country — yes, you are worried about gasoline prices, that’s true. But you are also worried about what’s happening to the rest of the world, to your own planet. You can’t just assume people are so simple, and be so condescending toward them. If you listen to advisors, the only thing people care about, apparently, is what’s in their pocket. If that were true, I wouldn’t be in government. Our children understand all this better than we do. They are not going to vote for oil companies and the status quo. If political leaders think that they have a future by taking the safe side, I think they’re very wrong.

“The Island President” is now playing in New York and San Francisco. It opens April 6 in Los Angeles; April 18 in Waterville, Maine; April 20 in San Diego and Washington; and April 27 in Detroit and Minneapolis, with more cities to follow.

Continue Reading Close

The ugly delusions of the educated conservative

Better-educated Republicans are more likely to doubt global warming and believe Obama's a Muslim. Here's why

(Credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
This essay originally appeared on AlterNet. It is adapted from Chris Mooney’s forthcoming book, "The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science—and Reality," due out in April from Wiley.

I can still remember when I first realized how naïve I was in thinking—hoping—that laying out the “facts” would suffice to change politicized minds, and especially Republican ones. It was a typically wonkish, liberal revelation: One based on statistics and data. Only this time, the data were showing, rather awkwardly, that people ignore data and evidence—and often, knowledge and education only make the problem worse.

AlterNetSomeone had sent me a 2008 Pew report documenting the intense partisan divide in the U.S. over the reality of global warming.. It’s a divide that, maddeningly for scientists, has shown a paradoxical tendency to widen even as the basic facts about global warming have become more firmly established.

Those facts are these: Humans, since the Industrial Revolution, have been burning more and more fossil fuels to power their societies, and this has led to a steady accumulation of greenhouse gases, and especially carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere. At this point, very simple physics takes over, and you are pretty much doomed, by what scientists refer to as the “radiative” properties of carbon dioxide molecules (which trap infrared heat radiation that would otherwise escape to space), to have a warming planet. Since about 1995, scientists have not only confirmed that this warming is taking place, but have also grown confident that it has, like the gun in a murder mystery, our fingerprint on it. Natural fluctuations, although they exist, can’t explain what we’re seeing. The only reasonable verdict is that humans did it, in the atmosphere, with their cars and their smokestacks.

Such is what is known to science–what is true (no matter what Rick Santorum might say). But the Pew data showed that humans aren’t as predictable as carbon dioxide molecules. Despite a growing scientific consensus about global warming, as of 2008 Democrats and Republicans had cleaved over the facts stated above, like a divorcing couple. One side bought into them, one side didn’t—and if anything, knowledge and intelligence seemed to be worsening matters.

Buried in the Pew report was a little chart showing the relationship between one’s political party affiliation, one’s acceptance that humans are causing global warming, and one’s level of education. And here’s the mind-blowing surprise: For Republicans, having a college degree didn’t appear to make one any more open to what scientists have to say. On the contrary, better-educated Republicans were more skeptical of modern climate science than their less educated brethren. Only 19 percent of college-educated Republicans agreed that the planet is warming due to human actions, versus 31 percent of non-college-educated Republicans.

For Democrats and Independents, the opposite was the case. More education correlated with being more accepting of climate science—among Democrats, dramatically so. The difference in acceptance between more and less educated Democrats was 23 percentage points.

This was my first encounter with what I now like to call the “smart idiots” effect: The fact that politically sophisticated or knowledgeable people are often more biased, and less persuadable, than the ignorant. It’s a reality that generates endless frustration for many scientists—and indeed, for many well-educated, reasonable people.

And most of all, for many liberals.

Let’s face it: We liberals and progressives are absolutely outraged by partisan misinformation. Lies about “death panels.” People seriously thinking that President Obama is a Muslim, not born in the United States. Climate-change denial. Debt ceiling denial. These things drive us crazy, in large part because we can’t comprehend how such intellectual abominations could possibly exist.

And not only are we enraged by lies and misinformation; we want to refute them—to argue, argue, argue about why we’re right and Republicans are wrong. Indeed, we often act as though right-wing misinformation’s defeat is nigh, if we could only make people wiser and more educated (just like us) and get them the medicine that is correct information.

No less than President Obama’s science adviser John Holdren (a man whom I greatly admire, but disagree with in this instance) has stated, when asked how to get Republicans in Congress to accept our mainstream scientific understanding of climate change, that it’s an “education problem.”

But the facts, the scientific data, say otherwise.

Indeed, the rapidly growing social scientific literature on the resistance to global warming (see for examples here and here) says so pretty unequivocally. Again and again, Republicans or conservatives who say they know more about the topic, or are more educated, are shown to be more in denial, and often more sure of themselves as well—and are confident they don’t need any more information on the issue.

Tea Party members appear to be the worst of all. In a recent survey by Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, they rejected the science of global warming even more strongly than average Republicans did. For instance, considerably more Tea Party members than Republicans incorrectly thought there was a lot of scientific disagreement about global warming (69 percent to 56 percent). Most strikingly, the Tea Party members were very sure of themselves—they considered themselves “very well-informed” about global warming and were more likely than other groups to say they “do not need any more information” to make up their minds on the issue.

But it’s not just global warming where the “smart idiot” effect occurs. It also emerges on nonscientific but factually contested issues, like the claim that President Obama is a Muslim. Belief in this falsehood actually increased more among better-educated Republicans from 2009 to 2010 than it did among less-educated Republicans, according to research by George Washington University political scientist John Sides.

The same effect has also been captured in relation to the myth that the healthcare reform bill empowered government “death panels.” According to research by Dartmouth political scientist Brendan Nyhan, Republicans who thought they knew more about the Obama healthcare plan were “paradoxically more likely to endorse the misperception than those who did not.” Well-informed Democrats were the opposite—quite certain there were no “death panels” in the bill.

The Democrats also happened to be right, by the way.

The idealistic, liberal, Enlightenment notion that knowledge will save us, or unite us, was even put to a scientific test last year—and it failed badly.

Yale researcher Dan Kahan and his colleagues set out to study the relationship between political views, scientific knowledge or reasoning abilities, and opinions on contested scientific issues like global warming. In their study, more than 1,500 randomly selected Americans were asked about their political worldviews and their opinions about how dangerous global warming and nuclear power are. But that’s not all: They were also asked standard questions to determine their degree of scientific literacy (e.g, “Antibiotics kill viruses as well as bacteria—true or false?”) as well as their numeracy or capacity for mathematical reasoning (e.g., “If Person A’s chance of getting a disease is 1 in 100 in 10 years, and person B’s risk is double that of A, what is B’s risk?”).

The result was stunning and alarming. The standard view that knowing more science, or being better at mathematical reasoning, ought to make you more accepting of mainstream climate science simply crashed and burned.

Instead, here was the result. If you were already part of a cultural group predisposed to distrust climate science—e.g., a political conservative or “hierarchical-individualist”—then more science knowledge and more skill in mathematical reasoning tended to make you even more dismissive. Precisely the opposite happened with the other group—“egalitarian-communitarians” or liberals—who tended to worry more as they knew more science and math. The result was that, overall, more scientific literacy and mathematical ability led to greater political polarization over climate change—which, of course, is precisely what we see in the polls.

So much for education serving as an antidote to politically biased reasoning.

What accounts for the “smart idiot” effect?

For one thing, well-informed or well-educated conservatives probably consume more conservative news and opinion, such as by watching Fox News. Thus, they are more likely to know what they’re supposed to think about the issues—what people like them think—and to be familiar with the arguments or reasons for holding these views. If challenged, they can then recall and reiterate these arguments. They’ve made them a part of their identities, a part of their brains, and in doing so, they’ve drawn a strong emotional connection between certain “facts” or claims, and their deeply held political values. And they’re ready to argue.

What this suggests, critically, is that sophisticated conservatives may be very different from unsophisticated or less-informed ones. Paradoxically, we would expect less informed conservatives to be easier to persuade, and more responsive to new and challenging information.

In fact, there is even research suggesting that the most rigid and inflexible breed of conservatives—so-called authoritarians—do not really become their ideological selves until they actually learn something about politics first. A kind of “authoritarian activation” needs to occur, and it happens through the development of political “expertise.” Consuming a lot of political information seems to help authoritarians feel who they are—whereupon they become more accepting of inequality, more dogmatically traditionalist, and more resistant to change.

So now the big question: Are liberals also “smart idiots”?

There’s no doubt that more knowledge—or more political engagement—can produce more bias on either side of the aisle. That’s because it forges a stronger bond between our emotions and identities on the one hand, and a particular body of facts on the other.

But there are also reason to think that, with liberals, there is something else going on. Liberals, to quote George Lakoff, subscribe to a view that might be dubbed “Old Enlightenment reason.” They really do seem to like facts; it seems to be part of who they are. And fascinatingly, in Kahan’s study liberals did not act like smart idiots when the question posed was about the safety of nuclear power.

Nuclear power is a classic test case for liberal biases—kind of the flip side of the global warming issue–for the following reason. It’s well known that liberals tend to start out distrustful of nuclear energy: There’s a long history of this on the left. But this impulse puts them at odds with the views of the scientific community on the matter (scientists tend to think nuclear power risks are overblown, especially in light of the dangers of other energy sources, like coal).

So are liberals “smart idiots” on nukes? Not in Kahan’s study. As members of the “egalitarian communitarian” group in the study—people with more liberal values–knew more science and math, they did not become more worried, overall, about the risks of nuclear power. Rather, they moved in the opposite direction from where these initial impulses would have taken them. They become less worried—and, I might add, closer to the opinion of the scientific community on the matter.

You may or may not support nuclear power personally, but let’s face it: This is not the “smart idiot” effect. It looks a lot more like open-mindedness.

What does all of this mean?

First, these findings are just one small slice of an emerging body of science on liberal and conservative psychological differences, which I discuss in detail in my forthcoming book. An overall result is definitely that liberals tend to be more flexible and open to new ideas—so that’s a possible factor lying behind these data. In fact, recent evidence suggests that wanting to explore the world and try new things, as opposed to viewing the world as threatening, may subtly push people toward liberal ideologies (and vice versa).

Politically and strategically, meanwhile, the evidence presented here leaves liberals and progressives in a rather awkward situation. We like evidence—but evidence also suggests that politics doesn’t work in the way we want it to work, or think it should. We may be the children of the Enlightenment—convinced that you need good facts to make good policies—but that doesn’t mean this is equally true for all of humanity, or that it is as true of our political opponents as it is of us.

Nevertheless, this knowledge ought to be welcomed, for it offers a learning opportunity and, frankly, a better way of understanding politics and our opponents alike. For instance, it can help us see through the scientific-sounding arguments of someone like Rick Santorum, who has been talking a lot about climate science lately—if only in order to bash it.

On global warming, Santorum definitely has an argument, and he has “facts” to cite. And he is obviously intelligent and capable—but not, apparently, able to see past his ideological biases. Santorum’s argument ultimately comes down to a dismissal of climate science and climate scientists, and even the embrace of a conspiracy theory, one in which the scientists of the world are conspiring to subvert economic growth (yeah, right).

Viewing all this as an ideologically defensive maneuver not only explains a lot, it helps us realize that refuting Santorum probably serves little purpose. He’d just come up with another argument and response, probably even cleverer than the last, and certainly just as appealing to his audience. We’d be much better concentrating our energies elsewhere, where people are more persuadable.

A more scientific understanding of persuasion, then, should not be seen as threatening. It’s actually an opportunity to do better—to be more effective and politically successful.

Indeed, if we believe in evidence then we should also welcome the evidence showing its limited power to persuade–especially in politicized areas where deep emotions are involved. Before you start off your next argument with a fact, then, first think about what the facts say about that strategy. If you’re a liberal who is emotionally wedded to the idea that rationality wins the day—well, then, it’s high time to listen to reason.

Continue Reading Close

Chris Mooney is the author of four books, including "The Republican War on Science" (2005). His next book, "The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science—and Reality," is due out in April.

Page 1 of 107 in Global Warming