WikiLeaks cables: Don’t trust Israel on Iran
Officials gently mock the Israeli habit of making bogus predictions about when Iran will obtain a nuclear bomb
By Justin ElliottTopics: WikiLeaks, War Room, Iran, Israel, Politics News
FILE - In This file photo taken Sunday Dec. 18, 2005, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon smiles as he talks to journalists prior to the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. Sharon's former aide said on Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010, that the comatose ex-Israeli premier will be moved to his ranch in Israel's south. Sharon, one of Israel's most popular and controversial figures, has been in the long-term care unit of Tel Hashomer Hospital outside Tel Aviv since suffering a series of strokes in 2006. (AP Photo/ Emilio Morenatti, File)(Credit: AP)A couple of items from the WikiLeaks trove suggest that State Depatment officials do not take particularly seriously Israeli predictions about when Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon.
That’s because those predictions are so often wrong.
There’s a candid discussion of the matter in a March 2005 cable about Israeli views on Iran (emphasis ours):
GOI [Government of Israel] officials have given different timelines for when they believe Iran will have full enrichment capability. In February, PM [Ariel] Sharon told the Secretary that he believes there is still time remaining to pressure Iran, but that the window of opportunity is closing quickly. DefMin Mofaz cautioned that Iran is “less than one year away,” while the head of research in military intelligence estimated that Iran would reach this point by early 2007. Technical experts at the IAEC predicted that Iran would have enrichment capability within six months of the end of the suspension agreement. A few GOI officials admitted informally that these estimates need to be taken with caution. The head of the MFA’s [Ministry of Foreign Affairs] strategic affairs division recalled that GOI assessments from 1993 predicted that Iran would possess an atomic bomb by 1998 at the latest.
And then there’s this from a 2009 cable describing a meeting between a U.S. defense official and an Israeli counterpart:
General Baidatz argued that it would take Iran one year to obtain a nuclear weapon and two and a half years to build an arsenal of three weapons. By 2012 Iran would be able to build one weapon within weeks and an arsenal within six months. (COMMENT: It is unclear if the Israelis firmly believe this or are using worst-case estimates to raise greater urgency from the United States).
For more on Iran, check out Salon’s timeline to crisis.
Justin Elliott is a reporter for ProPublica. You can follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More Justin Elliott.
Related Stories
More Related Stories
-
Donald Rumsfeld worried that marriage equality will lead to polygamy
-
Biden cracks Obama teleprompter joke
-
IRS official takes the Fifth: "I have not done anything wrong"
-
Experts: Fox News spying scandal a game-changer
-
Lessons from Lincoln leave gay immigrants behind
-
Los Angeles elects first Jewish mayor
-
Peter King: There's "hypocrisy" over aid by Oklahoma senators
-
Anthony Weiner announces run for NYC mayor
-
How policy nihilists in the Senate doomed LGBT immigrants
-
On freedom of speech, Obama-Nixon comparisons are apt
-
Senate panel approves immigration overhaul
-
Slave descendants seek equal rights from Cherokee Nation
-
Peace Corps to allow gay couples to volunteer together
-
Is abortion about to doom Republicans again?
-
Anti-voter-fraud Tea Party group sues the IRS
-
The Bachmann-inspired romance novel
-
Nate Silver: Why the scandals aren't hurting Obama
-
How to oust Michele Bachmann from Congress
-
Rand Paul: Congress should apologize to Apple, not the other way around
-
Who is Toronto Mayor Rob Ford?
-
Colorado judge rules Abercrombie parent company violates Disabilities Act
Featured Slide Shows
The week in 10 pics
close X- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
-
Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
Credit: AP/LM Otero -
Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
Credit: AP/Matt Rourke -
A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher -
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
Credit: AP/Molly Riley -
Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite -
Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster -
O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid -
Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield -
When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin -
A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin -
Recent Slide Shows
- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
Related Videos
Most Read
-
Oklahoma senator: Tornado aid "totally different" from Sandy aid
Jillian Rayfield
-
Horrifying new trend: Posting rapes to Facebook
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Facebook's hate speech problem
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Revenge, ego and the corruption of Wikipedia
Andrew Leonard
-
Brad Pitt keeps breaking his silence on how boring marriage to Jennifer Aniston was
Daniel D'Addario
-
Inhofe and Coburn: Red state hypocrites
Joan Walsh
-
GOP attorney general candidate tried to force women to report miscarriages to police
Katie Mcdonough
-
Beltway scandal machine breaks, knows nothing about America
Joan Walsh
-
Zach Galifianakis to take formerly homeless woman to "Hangover 3" premiere
Prachi Gupta
-
Jaron Lanier: The Internet destroyed the middle class
Scott Timberg
Popular on Reddit
links from salon.com

42 points43 points44 points | 6 comments

37 points38 points39 points | 11 comments

31 points32 points33 points | 4 comments


Koch Brother To Host A Fundraiser For Ken Cuccinelli
IRS Official Refuses To Testify During House Oversight Hearing
Advisers Urged Obama Early On To Release Comprehensive Benghazi Timeline
Comments
27 Comments