He bases his mayoral campaign strategy on the one that Ed Koch used in 1977: Focus on the less liberal Jews and “white ethnics” of the outer boroughs. Weiner again stands out from his opponents — Fernando Ferrer, Gifford Miller and Virginia Fields — and steadily rises in the polls. As the Democratic primary approaches, he moves into second place behind Ferrer. When the votes are counted, it initially appears that Weiner has qualified for a runoff, with Ferrer falling a fraction of a point short of the magic 40 percent threshold and Weiner 10 points behind him in second place. Weiner knows what the smart play is: The actual nomination is a worthless prize (Michael Bloomberg, after bottoming out in 2003 and 2004, has rebounded and is now overwhelmingly popular), so Weiner quickly announces that he won’t contest a runoff and endorses Ferrer. He wins points for being a team player and leaves Ferrer to face a Mondale-esque November drubbing. (Days later, a recount determines that Ferrer actually did break 40 percent in the preliminary, so Weiner wouldn’t have been eligible for a runoff anyway.)

2008: Weiner prepares to launch his next mayoral campaign, and this time, he will be one of the favorites. There’ll be no incumbent, thanks to term limits, and there’s no one on the Democratic side he’s not capable of beating. But then Bloomberg cuts a deal with the City Council to scrap the term limits law and announces he’ll run again. But Weiner presses ahead, blasting Bloomberg’s power grab and insisting that he won’t be intimidated.

2009: The Bloomberg campaign begins planting unflattering stories about Weiner in the New York media — involving missed votes in Congress and fundraisers involving international supermodels — and the congressman gets cold feet. At the end of May ’09, he announces that he won’t run for mayor.

Not at all coincidentally, it’s around this time that Weiner begins showing a sudden interest in congressional and national politics — and, more specifically, in talking about congressional and national politics on cable news programs. For producers, he’s a perfect guest — smart, glib, cocky and provocative. With the healthcare reform debate heating up, Weiner begins championing a single-payer system. It’s an issue he’s previously shown no interest in and that has zero chance of winning enactment. His sudden activism is an unwelcome surprise to many single-payer advocates in the House, who conclude that Weiner is using the issue to win attention for himself. In the summer of 2009, Weiner becomes a genuine cable news all-star, attracting a new national fan base of liberal viewers. But there’s a clear New York angle: By championing their causes in the national media, Weiner makes a new, much more favorable impression on liberal voters in Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn — voters who, combined with his outer-borough base, could make Weiner unstoppable in a 2013 mayoral primary.

2010: Weiner’s hero status to liberal activists is affirmed by a House floor rant against Republican obstructionism on a healthcare bill for 9/11 workers. But Weiner’s own Democratic colleagues, particularly those from New York, see his theatrics much differently. Several New York members — most notably Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney — had labored to craft the 9/11 bill and to win over Republican support, but Weiner had played no meaningful role before the floor debate. “He almost blew up the [expletive] bill,” one disgruntled New York member later tells the Washington Post. The episode perfectly illustrates the conflicting realities of Weiner’s new role in politics: To activists outside Washington, he’s a refreshing voice shaking up Congress; to his own colleagues, he’s a camera-seeking nuisance who’s interested in gaining publicity for himself — not in doing any substantive work.

2011: After a concerted effort by his fellow Democrats to push him out, Weiner finally decides to resign from Congress. He is 46 years old. There will be no mayoral campaign in 2013, and probably ever.