SALON

Friday, Mar 30, 2012 5:24 PM UTC

Will Paul Ryan’s budget take down the GOP?

The political toxicity of his budget scared off three House Republicans. But will they pay a price anyway?

By

Topics: War Room,

Will Paul Ryan's budget take down the GOP?Paul Ryan (Credit: AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

The Paul Ryan-authored budget approved by the House on Thursday has zero chance of being enacted, thanks to Democratic control of the Senate and White House. But there is a 100 percent chance that it will feature prominently in Democratic campaign ads and talking points from now through the November election.

This is a potential problem for Republicans, since a major component of the plan is a radical overhaul of Medicare, one of the most popular government programs. Ryan’s budget also calls for steep tax reductions that would disproportionately benefit the affluent and would potentially cut deeply into the social safety net. Just like the Medicare voucher plan that Ryan proposed and House Republicans lined up behind last year, it is a document that Democrats are itching to run against this fall, and to which they hope to tie every Republican candidate.

Republicans, obviously, are well aware of this. Many of them don’t care. They either adamantly believe that Ryan’s plans are in the country’s best interest, or they don’t have to worry because they represent Republican-dominated constituencies (or both). Others are probably more conflicted, fearful of the ammunition they’re handing Democrats but just as scared – or more scared – of being labeled a RINO in the Obama/Tea Party-era. The ghosts of Bob Bennett and Bob Inglis haunt Republicans on Capitol Hill.

This helps explains why John Boehner, who claimed the speaker’s gavel after the 2010 elections because he was in line for it, and not because of any great affection from Tea Party conservatives, was willing to bring Ryan’s Medicare plan for a vote last year, and why just about every Republican in the House voted for it – just as nearly every House Republican voted for Ryan’s budget this week. And it helps explain why Mitt Romney, who has no choice but to appease skeptical conservatives on every litmus test issue, has been so intent on winning Ryan’s endorsement (which he finally did today) and will defend his program as the Republican nominee.

There is, though, a tiny batch of Republican lawmakers who feel that the Ryan budget is too politically toxic. The group is smaller than 10, the number of House Republicans who voted against it this week. Most of those “no” votes came from staunchly conservative members who represent deeply red districts and who apparently believe that Ryan’s budget isn’t conservative enough. For instance, Justin Amash, a freshman from a Western Michigan district who has impeccable Tea Party credentials, told his local newspaper that Ryan’s plan doesn’t cut enough spending and takes too long to balance the budget. Six of the 10 GOP “no” votes seem to fit this criteria.

That leaves four members who apparently have different concerns. One of them, Pennsylvania’s Todd Platts, who some consider the least conservative Republican in the House, is retiring this year, so general election considerations clearly weren’t on his mind. But the other three all have reason to worry about November: New York’s Chris Gibson, a freshman who (thanks to redistricting) will run this fall in a district that gave Barack Obama 53 percent in 2008; David McKinley, who won his West Virginia seat by less than a point in 2010; and Denny Rehberg, the at-large congressman from Montana who is now locked in one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country, against Democrat Jon Tester.

All three of them have very obvious reasons to fear the taint of the Ryan budget. The question is whether voting against it will do much to protect them from Democratic attacks. Since this week’s vote (and last year’s) both essentially split on party lines and since Romney seems poised to defend it this fall, it may not be hard for Democrats to make the Ryan budget/Medicare plan synonymous with the Republican Party. If that happens, voters may end up oblivious to the “no” votes of Rehberg, McKinley and Gibson and punish them simply because of their party label.

In a way, this calls to mind the impact of healthcare reform on the 2010 midterms. Many panicky Democrats in vulnerable districts voted against the law, terrified of the political consequences. There’s some evidence that this didn’t do them any good; 22 of the 34 Democrats who voted “no” ended up losing their seats anyway, many of them by wide margins. Then again, as an analysis from Smart Politics found, of the 23 Democrats who voted against healthcare and represented districts that supported John McCain in 2008, nine were reelected; of the 18 from McCain districts who voted for healthcare, just two won reelection.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

Next Article

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

Gripping photos: The people of the Turkey protests (slideshow)

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • The protests take on a festive element as police forces move out of the park and square. Wearing a gas mask, this young man dances to traditional Turkish music in front of Taksim Square’s Ataturk Monument.

  • In Gezi Park since March 31st, this protester, originally caught off-guard by the Government’s teargas and water cannons, went out and bought a Russian army mask from WWII, preparing for what was to come.

  • This rambunctious boy seems to be enjoying the chaos. After taking this picture he threw a stone at the already destroyed building in the background.

  • Forming a line, the police face off directly with protesters in Taksim Square. After a while, they retreated and there was a general cheer – a back-and-forth dance that has been common since the beginning of this protest.

  • An elderly woman in Gezi Park reads the news. The tent community occupying the park was violently destroyed on June 16th.

  • Many different groups had set up booths to promote their cause in Taksim Square and Gezi Park. Standing in front of one, this man waves his flag while posing with conviction.

  • Many home-remedies are used to minimize the effects of tear gas. This woman has put a milky solution on her face, removing her mask after the tear gas dissipated. Before sunrise, the police came again for another round of teargasing.

  • People capitalize on the uprising -- selling flags, beer, gas masks, sky lanterns and spray paint to name just a few of the popular items.

  • On Monday morning, June 11, the police execute a strong offensive. Many plain-clothed police officers, like the ones seen here, clash with protesters in the side streets away from the main stand-off in Taksim.

  • The authorities seem to be most aggressive in the night, pushing protesters away from the square and park. After being teargassed this young woman catches her breath with other protesters on Siraselviler Street.

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

More Related Stories

Comments

 36 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

War Room is our political news and commentary blog, with coverage and commentary throughout the day.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves": Growing up primate

Recommendations