Euro crisis’ vultures
For some, the continent's financial crisis is just another opportunity to make lots and lots of money
By David CaseTopics: Europe, European Union, GlobalPost, European Financial Crisis, Life News, Politics News
BOSTON — It’s an axiom of modern capitalism, almost as certain as death and taxes: No matter how bad an economic crisis gets, someone is bound to get rich from it.
Very rich.
During the 2008-2009 financial meltdown, Goldman Sachs and hedge fund tycoon John Paulson hauled in billions betting against mortgage-backed securities. Likewise, the financial nerds profiled in Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short” cashed in, big time.
And this is nothing new.
Before the UK’s 1994 Black Monday crash, financier-philanthropist George Soros, sensing central bankers with their heads in the sand, made billions shorting the pound sterling — essentially borrowing the currency, selling it, and later paying back his creditors when he could buy it cheaper. He successfully repeated this trick as Southeast Asia went into crisis in 1997.
Now, the euro zone increasingly appears to be in a terminal mess. Growth has stagnated. Debt is out of control. In vulnerable countries like Spain, interest rates are veering toward usury. Governments are bailing out banks. And Greece has imploded, both politically and economically; this week, citizens have been emptying their bank accounts, always a grim sign that economic Armageddon looms.
It’s time for the average person to worry yet again about his job or her disintegrating retirement account. But for the crafty and courageous, opportunity beckons.
So, what investments are they salivating over?
One obvious option would be to shop for cheap stocks on European exchanges. This “value” approach is a time-honored strategy. It’s used by moguls such as Warren Buffet, who advised in the bleakest days of the 2008 mortgage meltdown: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Anyone who took Buffet’s advice and bought US stocks at the nadir of the financial crisis could have nearly doubled their money by now. Bargain hunting is particularly tempting for individual investors, who could shift 401K allocations into mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) with, say, exposure to Spain or Portugal, whose markets are trading at lows not reached in years.
But it’s not yet time to pursue this strategy, insists David Twibell, president of Denver-based Custom Portfolio Group. “Europe is a slow-motion train wreck … stuck with an unsustainable fiscal mess,” he says. “There’s often a fine line between courage and stupidity, and I would say investing in Europe right now comes dangerously close to the latter.” One critical risk factor: If the euro zone does indeed break apart, you may end up holding investments in national currencies that could plummet in relation to the dollar, wiping out any gains from stock appreciation.
Still, Twibell sees opportunity on the horizon. “There will be a time to bottom fish in Europe,” he says. “The advantage Europe will have in the next few years is that many of its problems will have been resolved at about the same time Japan and the US are starting to feel the repercussions of their excessive borrowing. When that time rolls around, European stocks and bonds will both look very attractive.”
If it’s unwise to cast your lot with Europe at the moment, what about betting against it? That’s an idea that appears to be gaining popularity among “sophisticated” traders, who have begun banking on the currency’s decline.
This is a growing trend. On balance, the “smart money” wagered that the euro would fall in late 2011, but had pulled back from that approach in 2012, says Michael Arold, a model manager for Covestor, an online asset management company.
In recent days, with Greece and Spain floundering and voters across Europe rejecting Germany’s austerity prescription, “Large traders have increased their net short positions again,” says Arold. “Downside momentum is strong,” he adds; “If someone wants to short the euro, he should do so when the smart money starts to get short, not at the end of this process.” It may, in fact, already be too late.
Of course, speculating against the world’s second biggest economy is risky. Economists point out that Europe still has options for addressing the crisis, which could interfere with crisis-oriented strategies. And leaders have compelling reasons to put out the fiscal conflagration. The economy of paymaster Germany, for example, has greatly profited from the bloc. Meanwhile for Greece, a return to the drachma could reap mass bankruptcies, decimate the financial system and plunge the economy into even greater straits, at least in the near term. Moreover, as some experts point out, the dark historical events that eventually led to Europe’s unity still haunt the continent, giving it strong reasons to take action.
Fordham University economist Laura Gonzalez cautions investors to be “wary of speculators that are betting too heavily against the euro anticipating the end of the currency because the EU is not breaking apart any time soon.”
By Gonzalez’s estimate, Europe needs a Marshall Plan to promote growth, along with a two year grace period allowing governments to get their deficits under control. Additionally, a devaluation of the euro so that it’s at par with the dollar would help boost exports and “give the Euro zone a little more oxygen to recover.” The currency bloc, she says, will most likely “come out of this troubling period stronger, more realistic, diverse and dynamic.”
On the other hand, whether Europe can manage its colossal challenges depends on its policymakers — a group that has often failed to demonstrate the kind of vision, decisiveness and creativity demanded of effective leadership.
In other words, whatever the outcome, for the moment the only certainty in Europe will be uncertainty. Markets will swing wildly. The euro and sovereign interest rates will rise and fall.
In this caprice lies yet another opportunity to cash in, says Andrew Karolyi, a finance professor at Cornell University’s Johnson Graduate School of Management.
Karolyi explains that hedge funds (and others) are exploiting market swings using a strategy called a “leveraged volatility play.” The idea is simple: In advance of an event that is likely to have a dramatic impact — such as the Greek elections, an EU economic summit, or perhaps Ireland’s late May referendum on Europe’s new austerity pact — an investor places bets that profit from significant swings, regardless of whether the movements are positive or negative.
Investors generally accomplish this using options: contracts that allow you to buy or sell an asset (like euros) in the future, at an agreed upon price.
For example, if the euro were trading around $1.30 (where it was before the May 6 Greek elections), you would purchase options granting you the right, say, to sell euros if the exchange rate falls below $1.29 or buy them if the rate rises above $1.31 — wagering that the political outcome would drive either substantial gains or losses. The contracts can be bought for relatively modest premiums, and can be leveraged by borrowing on margin.
If the euro swings outside the window defined by the options, the investor pockets the difference between the strike price of the option and the value of the asset.
Incidentally, currency options are readily available to individual investors, through brokers. For anyone so convinced of euro-chaos as to pursue this strategy: One benefit of the leveraged volatility play is that the risk of loss, in the event that asset prices don’t swing as much as expected, is limited to the premiums paid for the options.
Since the euro has slid to nearly $1.25 since the elections, investors deploying this strategy have profited handsomely.
Of course, we should point out that past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even if it were, that would not be reason to gamble the family nest egg without exercising extreme caution. After all, while eye-popping profits make for good headlines, high-flying financiers also often suffer breathtaking losses: Soros, for one, lost $2 billion in the 1998 Russian debt crisis, $700 million in the tech bubble, and $300 million in the 1987 US equities crash.
But he can afford it. Can you?
More GlobalPost
-
Syria: The new land of jihad?
Militants have declared a holy war in Syria. But experts warn the regime may be manipulating the threat to serve its own interests.Hugh Macleod and Annasofie Flamand May 17, 2012 -
Peru prison: from pot smoke to pottery class
There’s nothing quite like Lurigancho, Peru’s largest prison, reputedly one of the toughest in South America. GlobalPost gets inside, and finds some surprises.Simeon Tegel May 14, 2012
David Case is a senior writer and editor at GlobalPost. Follow him @DavidCaseReport. More David Case.
Related Stories
More Related Stories
-
How I ended up in a pyramid scheme
-
My bipolar partner beat me
-
Teenagers care more about online privacy than you think
-
Radio host tweets rape joke, blames journalists for reporting on it
-
El Salvador court delays ruling on abortion case while woman's life hangs in the balance
-
Kicked out of the mall -- for an anti-cancer hat
-
Why do men pretend to be women online?
-
Pa. governor "can't find" any Latinos to work in his administration
-
Conservative group blames military sexual assault on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal
-
Is Pittsburgh the next Portland?
-
Tornado survivor to Wolf Blitzer: Sorry, I'm an atheist. I don't have to thank the Lord
-
Donald Rumsfeld worried that marriage equality will lead to polygamy
-
San Francisco Giant Jeremy Affeldt apologizes for homophobic past
-
Wall Street firm's "Golden Pitchbook" is totally sexist, full of lies
-
Federal court strikes down Arizona abortion ban
-
I'm not achieving my dreams!
-
The most popular Tumblr porn
-
Slave descendants seek equal rights from Cherokee Nation
-
Snapchat is secretly storing your photos
-
Peace Corps to allow gay couples to volunteer together
-
Facebook's hate speech problem
Featured Slide Shows
The week in 10 pics
close X- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
-
Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
Credit: AP/LM Otero -
Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
Credit: AP/Matt Rourke -
A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher -
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
Credit: AP/Molly Riley -
Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite -
Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster -
O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid -
Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield -
When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin -
A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin -
Recent Slide Shows
- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
Related Videos
Most Read
-
Oklahoma senator: Tornado aid "totally different" from Sandy aid
Jillian Rayfield
-
Tornado survivor to Wolf Blitzer: Sorry, I'm an atheist. I don't have to thank the Lord
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Inhofe and Coburn: Red state hypocrites
Joan Walsh
-
Facebook's hate speech problem
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Brad Pitt keeps breaking his silence on how boring marriage to Jennifer Aniston was
Daniel D'Addario
-
9-year-old slams Rahm over Chicago schools
Natasha Lennard
-
Revenge, ego and the corruption of Wikipedia
Andrew Leonard
-
Experts: Fox News spying scandal a game-changer
Natasha Lennard
-
Beltway scandal machine breaks, knows nothing about America
Joan Walsh
-
Did a Salon excerpt ruin Penn Jillette's chance to win "Celebrity Apprentice"?
Daniel D'Addario
Popular on Reddit
links from salon.com

42 points43 points44 points | 1 comment

7 points8 points9 points | comment

2 points3 points4 points | 6 comments
From Around the Web
Presented by Scribol
-
Diane Gilman: Baby Boomers: A New Life-Construct -- From "Invisible to Invincible!" -
Susan Gregory Thomas: Why Divorced Boomer Moms Don't Deserve The Bad Rap -
British Nanny Offered An Annual Salary Of $200,000 -
Arianna Huffington: What I Did (and Didn't Do) On My Summer Vacation -
Vivian Diller, Ph.D.: Maybe Happiness Begins At 50
-
Tensions Brew Inside White House Over Counsel's Role -
House May Launch Hearings Over Justice Department Media Spying Scandal -
Is This The Face Of A New Global Human Rights Movement? -
Anthony Weiner's First Campaign Began With An Apology For "Race-Baiting" -
The Time Lois Lerner Failed To Investigate A Major Al Gore Fundraiser At The FEC






25 Awesome Swimsuit DIYs You Have To Try This Summer
38 Perfect Books To Read Aloud With Kids
5 Home Depot Hacks
Comments
0 Comments