SALON

Wednesday, Sep 26, 2012 1:55 PM UTC

GOP nightmare: Confident Americans

Romney is fighting a rising tide of economic good cheer, even if the numbers don't quite justify it

By

Topics: 2012 Elections, Housing, Unemployment, U.S. Economy, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Economic Confidence, ,

GOP nightmare: Confident Americans (Credit: AP/Chris O'Meara)

As if Mitt Romney’s campaign managers didn’t have enough to worry about, what with lousy poll numbers, mean Republican pundits, and the 47 percent video backlash, Tuesday morning delivered possibly the worst news yet: confirmation that Americans are feeling better about the state of the U.S. economy.

U.S. consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in seven months in September as Americans were more optimistic about the job market and income prospects, a private sector report showed on Tuesday.

The news confirms what media outlets have been reporting for weeks: Romney is fighting a rising tide of economic good cheer. That’s dire news for Mitt, since his entire campaign strategy is built on the premise that voters will blame Obama for high unemployment and stagnant economic growth.

But it also poses a bit of a puzzler. Because, er, unemployment is still stubbornly high and economic growth is very slow. The available data do not support a slam dunk case for brightening economic prospects. Gas prices are up, manufacturing has been slumping for several months, the last monthly jobs report was a disappointment and the number of new jobless claims has risen over the last two weeks.

Most convincing of all — one week and a half ago, the Federal Reserve announced a major program of monetary stimulus to boost economic growth. There is simply no way to interpret the Fed’s move other than as a vote of no-confidence in the economy.

So why are Americans feeling chipper?

There are a couple of obvious reasons. First, the housing market is off the gurney. Prices are up, housing starts are up, sales of existing homes are rising, builder confidence is rising, and mortgage delinquencies are down. Each month this year has delivered additional evidence that housing is no longer a drag on the U.S. economy.

Second — the stock market is hovering near a five-year high. The overall percentage of Americans invested in the stock market has fallen from its 1998 peak of 60 percent down to 53 percent in 2012 for understandable reasons, but the psychological impact of rising stock prices is still a relatively broad-based phenomenon. 401Ks, IRAs, college funds — they’re all flusher than they’ve been for years.

When your home and your 401K start appreciating in value, you’re going to feel better about the world. But the most fascinating statistic about economic confidence seems to prove that this recent outbreak of optimism has nothing to do with the economy. Because it’s almost entirely partisan.

Polling conducted by Gallup on attitudes toward the economy shows a steady rise in confidence on the part of Democrats. Since the beginning of September, Democratic confidence has surged. Republican confidence in the economy, in contrast, remains abysmally low. Independents are bouncing around, but are still much less likely to feel good about the economy than Democrats.

The rise in economic confidence on the part of Democrats correlates very nicely with Obama’s post-convention polling. It suggests that the Obama campaign’s successful ability to reenergize its supporters with a rousing convention has translated into a generalized sense of high spirits.

There’s a warning buried there. A sharp downward turn in some key economic indicators — perhaps a disastrous labor report for the month of September — could easily puncture the glee. So Romney’s campaign managers shouldn’t give up hope. But their dismay is understandable. Because it might be as simple as this: Democrats may be feeling better about the economy because they think they’re going to win.

Andrew Leonard

Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
    Credit: AP/LM Otero

  • Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
    Credit: AP/Matt Rourke

  • A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
    Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher

  • Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
    Credit: AP/Molly Riley

  • Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
    Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite

  • Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
    Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster

  • O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
    Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid

  • Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
    Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield

  • When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
    Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin

  • A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
    Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 24 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: So long, Sookie Stackhouse

Recommendations