Jobs report: Things are looking up

The economy might not be roaring back, but today's numbers are just further evidence that we're on the right track

Topics: Unemployment, Jared Bernstein, On the Economy, Jobs report, economy, ,

Jobs report: Things are looking up (Credit: Associated Press)
This originally appeared on Jared Bernstein's blog, On the Economy.

Well, the big jobs report is out showing payrolls grew by a more-than-expected 171,000 last month and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, as expected, to 7.9%. Job growth for the prior two months was revised up by 84,000, and the average monthly pace of job growth over the past four months — a useful way of smoothing out monthly noise in the data — is 173,000, a sharp acceleration over the second quarter’s pace of 67,000 per month.

The uptick in unemployment was expected after September’s 0.3 percentage point drop, but a few things are worth noting. First, the 0.1 point increase is statistically indistinguishable from no change at all — the unemployment rate has to rise or fall about 0.2 points to be significant. At 7.9%, the jobless rate is down significantly — by one full point — from its rate one year ago. Second, one reason for the slight uptick was that more people came into the labor market seeking work. We’ll need to see how this development evolves in coming months, but we may be seeing early signs of an improving job market pulling more job seekers in from the sidelines.

All told, given the acceleration in payroll growth, the upward revisions to prior months’ payroll gains, the trend decline in unemployment and the pick-up in labor force participation, today’s report is generally pointing to a job market that’s showing signs of improvement.

Obviously, a report like this landing just a few days before a tight election is going to be a very big deal, and both campaigns will use the results in predictable ways. But if there’s anyone out there who’s making up their mind based on this one report, please don’t. Yes, the monthly employment numbers provide important information about the part of the economy that matters most to people, but that information  must be considered as but one relatively noisy set of indicators amid a sea of others.

I always stress, as I did above, the importance of smoothing out some of the monthly noise by averaging over the past few months. As noted, employment growth slowed notably in the second quarter of this year, increasing by only 67,000 jobs per month, but it has since accelerated up to an average monthly gain of about 170,000 over the past four months.

Some details:

–The effects of Hurricane Sandy are not included in these numbers as the October surveys were fielded well before the storm hit.



–Manufacturing added 13,000 jobs last month after shedding 14,000 and 13,000 jobs in the prior two months. Over the past year, factory employment is up by 189,000, and up about 500,000 since the sector began to recover in early 2010.

–Both hourly and weekly earnings are up, before inflation, by about 1.5% over the past year, trailing the recent trend in prices, up around 2% since last September. Average weekly hours have also been flat over the past few months, suggesting employers are meeting increased labor demand by adding workers rather then extending shifts.

–Most industries added jobs last month; professional services led with 51,000 jobs and retail stores added 36,000 jobs in October, compared to 27,000 and 18,000 in the prior two months, perhaps reflecting stronger consumer activity and confidence.

–Construction was up 17,000 last month, driven by both residential and commercial contract work. The sector is showing some early signs of the formerly moribund housing market coming back to life.

–Government employment, however, fell again in October, down 13,000. After posting large losses since the downturn, state and local payrolls have been essentially stagnant.

Jared Bernstein joined the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in May 2011 as a Senior Fellow. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. Follow his work via Twitter at @econjared and @centeronbudget.

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • 1 of 11
  • Close
  • Fullscreen
  • Thumbnails
    Burger King Japan

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Burger King's black cheeseburger: Made with squid ink and bamboo charcoal, arguably a symbol of meat's destructive effect on the planet. Only available in Japan.

    Elite Daily/Twitter

    2014's fast food atrocities

    McDonald's Black Burger: Because the laws of competition say that once Burger King introduces a black cheeseburger, it's only a matter of time before McDonald's follows suit. You still don't have to eat it.

    Domino's

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Domino's Specialty Chicken: It's like regular pizza, except instead of a crust, there's fried chicken. The company's marketing officer calls it "one of the most creative, innovative menu items we have ever had” -- brain power put to good use.

    Arby's/Facebook

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Arby's Meat Mountain: The viral off-menu product containing eight different types of meat that, on second read, was probably engineered by Arby's all along. Horrific, regardless.

    KFC

    2014's fast food atrocities

    KFC'S ZINGER DOUBLE DOWN KING: A sandwich made by adding a burger patty to the infamous chicken-instead-of-buns creation can only be described using all caps. NO BUN ALL MEAT. Only available in South Korea.

    Taco Bell

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Taco Bell's Waffle Taco: It took two years for Taco Bell to develop this waffle folded in the shape of a taco, the stand-out star of its new breakfast menu.

    Michele Parente/Twitter

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Krispy Kreme Triple Cheeseburger: Only attendees at the San Diego County Fair were given the opportunity to taste the official version of this donut-hamburger-heart attack combo. The rest of America has reasonable odds of not dropping dead tomorrow.

    Taco Bell

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Taco Bell's Quesarito: A burrito wrapped in a quesadilla inside an enigma. Quarantined to one store in Oklahoma City.

    Pizzagamechangers.com

    2014's fast food atrocities

    Boston Pizza's Pizza Cake: The people's choice winner of a Canadian pizza chain's contest whose real aim, we'd imagine, is to prove that there's no such thing as "too far." Currently in development.

    7-Eleven

    2014's fast food atrocities

    7-Eleven's Doritos Loaded: "For something decadent and artificial by design," wrote one impassioned reviewer, "it only tasted of the latter."

  • Recent Slide Shows

Comments

0 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>