What would happen if the red states actually seceded?
The scenario is all but impossible, but it raises fascinating questions about where we might draw our borders
By Joshua HollandTopics: AlterNet, secession, Secession Petitions, Red States, Blue States, Politics News
Thirty-five percent of Texas Republicans want to secede from the United States. After November’s election, eight red states filed petitions on the White House’s YouGov Web site calling for a split, and judging from the popularity of Chuck Thompson’s Better Off Without ‘Em: A Northern Manifesto for Southern Secession (which calls for an “amicable divorce” from the former states of the Confederacy) a fair number of progressives would be happy to let them go.
Talk of secession is, of course, pretty silly. But national boundaries have historically been impermanent, and it does lead to an interesting thought experiment: just how would one approach the task of dividing up the world’s leading superpower? It’s easy to write a screed about how out of touch with Real America those socialist coastal elites are, or how backward the South’s cousin-marrying bumpkins can be, but I’m not sure either side of that squabble has paused to consider the details.
Making it a truly amicable divorce would have to be the primary goal. A scenario in which two powerful new states with a shared border and a degree of mutual animosity might end up at war would be the last thing anyone would want. This also isn’t the 19th century – like it or not, we live in an interconnected world, and we’d still share 200-plus years of common history.
An amicable separation would require creating something like a North American Union, with each country maintaining sovereignty over domestic policy while establishing some cooperation through binding treaties. Let’s consider some of the sticky points.
Where Do You Draw the Borders?
Texas could just secede, or the United States could disaggregate into regional blocs with similar political cultures. You might have the Pacific States of America, the Southwestern States of America, the Northeastern States, etc. But most Americans like living in a large, powerful state, and size – market size and military might – matters on the international stage.
If one were to divide the country in two, a quick glance at a map reveals that there’s no clean way to sever the “red” and “blue” states into two contiguous territories. North Dakota went for Romney by 20 points, but it would have to be part of the “Northern States of America.” New Mexico, which Obama won by 10 points, would end up being one of the more liberal states in the “Southern States of America.”
It gets trickier when you consider the political and cultural differences within states. A farmer in Southern Illinois once told me, “We consider this area to be Northern Kentucky.” You could hold a county-by-county referendum to determine exactly where to draw the line, which would be great for the folks in Northern New Mexico, as this county-by-county electoral map suggests.
Something to think about.
The Military
This gets sticky. How do you split up the most powerful military on the planet? Ideally, you wouldn’t; you’d create a NATO-style common defense force, with a central chain of command, and it would be dedicated to protecting the territory formerly known as the United States. This would avoid a situation in which the world’s leading military powers shared a common border – a scenario that could lead to all sorts of ugliness.
But here’s the problem: the two new countries would want the ability to set their own foreign policies and determine their own levels of military spending. Presumably, the “blue” states would want to spend a little less on guns and a little more on butter (or a lot less on guns and a lot more on butter).
One possible solution would be to separate true “defense” from military spending. We could agree to a treaty that sets common defense spending at, say, half of current levels (or a third — whatever) for a dedicated North American Defense Force, and then allow the two new countries to maintain their own “expeditionary forces,” based overseas, that would be barred from operating in North America. If one of the new countries wants to play World Police, it can do so and bear those costs.
What to do with our 700-plus foreign bases? I guess you’d divide them up like common assets in any other divorce.
Trade and Borders
If the idea is to pursue different ideas about the role of government in society, why would we want to give up the advantages that come with being the world’s second largest economy? The best scenario would be to retain one big economic zone along the lines of the EU – two countries establishing their own domestic affairs, in a union with some common policy that facilitates the free exchange of goods, services and people. This would give citizens the opportunity to vote with their feet if they don’t like living with their new model of governance.
But there are two problems here. First, we’d have to avoid having the red states become a maquiladora zone, with cheap labor and lax environmental regulations that blue state firms could take advantage of to manufacture products for sale in their domestic market. The second problem would be contraband goods flowing back and forth – what’s the point of stricter gun laws in the North if a constant stream of AR-15s flows up from the South? (The opposite would be true if the blue states legalized marijuana and the red states maintained its prohibition.)
The first problem might be answered with some sort of tariffs that equalize labor costs and regulatory burdens, creating an even playing field for firms to compete without engaging in a race to the bottom.
The second problem is stickier. Would we want a high-tech, heavily guarded border with limited crossing points like we now have with Mexico? In the EU, nationals move freely across borders. Perhaps checkpoints could be established on the most heavily trafficked routes. Random vehicle searches – with penalties for trafficking in contraband goods – might be enough to manage the problem, at least to a significant degree, without having formal border crossings.
Taxes and Benefits
Here’s another sticky issue. It’s safe to assume that the blue states would tax their citizens a bit more and offer better benefits in return. How would we deal with these differences if we maintain an open-border policy, and people spend time living and working in both of the new countries?
The European Union might again provide an answer: a bilateral tax treaty. In the EU, people who spend more than half of a year working outside their home country are considered tax residents of that country. Those who spend less than half a year working in another country only end up paying taxes on their income in that country.
As far as retirement and health benefits go, as in the EU, you’d accrue benefits in the country where you worked, or, if you’ve worked in both countries, then you would be eligible for retirement benefits in both countries according to what you’ve paid into the system during your career.
Currency/Monetary Policy
Ideally, we’d maintain a common currency and avoid a lot of the hassles the EU has had by having a single central bank overseeing monetary policy (most of the EU has a single currency but no common fiscal policy, which has caused a lot of problems).
But gold-buggery is now a mainstream proposition in the GOP. Just last week, Virginia legislators approved a plan to study the feasability of the state minting its own coins in order to survive the inevitable collapse of the federal government. And distrust of the Federal Reserve would probably make a common fiscal policy all but impossible.
Minority Rights
Liberals would no doubt worry about minority voting rights in Alabama and conservatives would be equally worried about the right of Montanans to own firearms. One way to adress these concerns would be to have both new countries adopt our existing Constitution. If they want to amend it, they can do so through a constitutional convention, or by passing an amendment with a super-majority in both chambers of Congress and then having it affirmed by three-quarters of their states.
This is a high bar, which means that only constitutional changes with very broad support would be possible. It may not be ideal, but it would go a long way toward protecting minority rights in both new countries.
They would also have independent Supreme Courts, and over the years those courts would no doubt come to very different interpretations of the Constitution. That’s probably a good balance; significant change would eventually be apparent, but absent new amendments, its core principles would remain intact.
Alimony
The “blue” states currently subsidize the “red” – eight of the 10 states that took in the most net federal dollars are solidly Republican, and all 10 of the states that pay the most net dollars into the federal system are solidly Democratic. Also, in any rational division of the country, the Blue States of America would end up with the lion’s share of economic capacity – we’d have California, New York and Chicago, just for starters.
If we want to make this a friendly divorce, we’d have to consider paying the national equivalent of alimony to the new Red States of America, at least for a certain period of adjustment. This would be in our own interests – when a marriage ends amicably, and one spouse is the primary breadwinner, he or she pays alimony to help the other spouse land on his or her feet.
What Else?
Those are a few things one should consider before calling for secession – or for other states to secede. I’m sure there’s much more to consider, so feel free to hash it out.
Related Stories
More Related Stories
-
Slave descendants seek equal rights from Cherokee Nation
-
Peace Corps to allow gay couples to volunteer together
-
Is abortion about to doom Republicans again?
-
Anti-voter-fraud Tea Party group sues the IRS
-
The Bachmann-inspired romance novel
-
Nate Silver: Why the scandals aren't hurting Obama
-
How to oust Michele Bachmann from Congress
-
Rand Paul: Congress should apologize to Apple, not the other way around
-
Who is Toronto Mayor Rob Ford?
-
Colorado judge rules Abercrombie parent company violates Disabilities Act
-
When America became a third-world country
-
Inhofe and Coburn: Red state hypocrites
-
It's Whitewater all over again
-
Teen activist to meet with Abercrombie CEO
-
Anyone regret slashing National Weather Service budget now?
-
Oklahoma senator: Tornado aid "totally different" from Sandy aid
-
Aloof, shifty Obama: Nixon times ten thousand!
-
Obama: Moore "needs to get everything it needs right away"
-
California Tea Party group files first IRS lawsuit
-
Still no polling backlash for Obama
-
Oklahoma senator wants to offset tornado aid with other cuts
Featured Slide Shows
The week in 10 pics
close X- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
-
Lisa Montgomery embraces her nephew Thursday after a tornado tore apart her home in Cleburne, Texas. The twister killed six people and destroyed entire swaths of the North Texas town.
Credit: AP/LM Otero -
Jack McMahon, the defense attorney for abortion doctor Kermit Gosnell, speaks outside the Criminal Justice Center in Philadelphia Tuesday. His client was convicted of killing three babies in his clinic, and will serve multiple life sentences.
Credit: AP/Matt Rourke -
A photo taken Monday captures Vice President Joe Biden's response to a Milwaukee second-grader's innovative proposal to end America's epidemic of gun violence. This guy!
Credit: AP/Jenny Aicher -
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., flanked by a grouper-eyed Michele Bachmann, addresses the IRS' admission that it targeted Tea Party groups in advance of the 2012 election. In an op-ed for CNN Thursday, the Kentucky senator slammed the president for his faux outrage.
Credit: AP/Molly Riley -
Ousted IRS chief Steven Miller is sworn in on Capitol Hill Friday. Miller testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on the extra scrutiny the agency gave conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status.
Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite -
Attorney General Eric Holder pauses as he testifies on Capitol Hill before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday. Holder is under fire, among other things, for the Justice Department's gathering of phone records at the Associated Press.
Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster -
O.J. Simpson sits during an evidentiary hearing at Clark County District Court in Las Vegas, Nev., Thursday. Simpson, who is currently serving a nine-to-33-year sentence in state prison for armed robbery and kidnapping, is using a writ of habeas corpus to seek a new trial.
Credit: AP/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Jeff Scheid -
Major Tom to ground control: On Sunday astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded the first music video from space, a cover of David Bowie's "Space Oddity."
Credit: AP/NASA/Chris Hadfield -
When it rains it pours. President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, inexplicably inspiring an #umbrellagate Twitter meme.
Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin -
A smoke plume rises high above a road block at the intersection of County A and Ross Road east of Solon Springs, Wis., Tuesday. No injuries were reported, but the the wildfire caused evacuations across northwestern Wisconsin.
Credit: AP/The Duluth News-Tribune/Clint Austin -
Recent Slide Shows
- Share on Twitter
- Share on Facebook
- Thumbnails
- Fullscreen
- 1 of 11
- Previous
- Next
Related Videos
Salon is proud to feature content from AlterNet, an award-winning news magazine and online community that creates original journalism and amplifies the best of hundreds of other independent media sources.
Most Read
-
Oklahoma senator: Tornado aid "totally different" from Sandy aid
Jillian Rayfield
-
Horrifying new trend: Posting rapes to Facebook
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Facebook's hate speech problem
Mary Elizabeth Williams
-
Revenge, ego and the corruption of Wikipedia
Andrew Leonard
-
Brad Pitt keeps breaking his silence on how boring marriage to Jennifer Aniston was
Daniel D'Addario
-
GOP attorney general candidate tried to force women to report miscarriages to police
Katie Mcdonough
-
Beltway scandal machine breaks, knows nothing about America
Joan Walsh
-
Zach Galifianakis to take formerly homeless woman to "Hangover 3" premiere
Prachi Gupta
-
Inhofe and Coburn: Red state hypocrites
Joan Walsh
-
Anyone regret slashing National Weather Service budget now?
David Sirota
Popular on Reddit
links from salon.com

3144 points3145 points3146 points | 2717 comments

157 points158 points159 points | 63 comments

35 points36 points37 points | 11 comments
From Around the Web
Presented by Scribol
- Anthony Weiner Is Running For Mayor Of New York
-
Advisers Urged Obama Early On To Release Comprehensive Benghazi Timeline -
Democrats Let Sen. Patrick Leahy Stand Alone In Support Of Gay Couples -
Virginia Republicans Aren't Flocking To Anti-Gay Lieutenant Governor Hopeful -
Israeli Ambassador Says Kerry Will Do A Fine Job Getting Peace Negotiations Going



Comments
44 Comments