SALON

Tuesday, Feb 19, 2013 4:48 PM UTC

Europe hangs on Italian elections

Italy's parliamentary candidates showcase the battle between austerity measures and its rising resentment in the EU

By

Topics: GlobalPost, Europe, Italy, Austerity, Global Recession,

Europe hangs on Italian electionsFormer Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi at a speech in Milan, Italy on September 27, 2009. (Credit: AP Photo/Alberto Pellaschiar)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

Global Post

ROME, Italy — Rome is awash in political posters.

They’re plastered on buses, billboards, even the Segways that bear footsore tourists through ancient cobbled streets, with messages from a seemingly baffling array of 25 parties and coalitions — from the Workers’ Communist Party to the neo-Fascist Tricolor Flame — competing in parliamentary elections on Sunday and Monday.

Although actually a relatively simple contest, the elections could have a profound impact on the future of Italy and the entire euro zone.

The results will determine whether Italy maintains its policies of fiscal restraint and economic liberalization that have restored its credibility on financial markets over the past year, or if voter anger with austerity will usher in a government that would spend its way out of recession at the risk of clashing with Italy’s euro zone partners, especially Germany.

Only two coalitions are likely to emerge on top.

On the center-left is a grouping headed by Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani, 61, a former Communist who moved to the political center to become a liberalizing economics minister in the mid-2000s.

Despite pressure from the left, Bersani is seen broadly continuing the reform process launched by Prime Minister Mario Monti, the economist who has led a technocratic government for the past 15 months.

Bersani talks about “correcting” rather than overhauling some of the austerity measures and has pledged that Italy will meet its commitments to its European partners.

His approach, and down-to-earth style, draw comparisons to French President Francois Hollande’s. Bersani’s victory would add to pressure from France on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to tone down Europe-wide austerity.

Merkel may still prefer that to the alternative, however. Challenging Bersani is the familiar figure of Silvio Berlusconi, the three-time prime minister and dominant force in Italian politics over the past 20 years.

Berlusconi, 76, has made attacks on Monti and Merkel a central thrust of a campaign packed with promises to end austerity and reignite growth.

On Monday, he mocked the German leader’s commitment to budgetary rigor as a result of her upbringing in Communist East Germany. “She was born in East Germany and was trained as bureaucrat of a centralized economy,” he told business leaders in the northern city of Monza.

Many had written off the media mogul after he was forced from office in November 2011 with Italy’s finances in free-fall and his business and sexual practices under intense scrutiny from prosecutors.

However, the billionaire has few rivals on the stump. Since returning to the political fray in December, Berlusconi’s pugnacious TV and rally performances have galvanized support for his conservative People of Freedom Party (PDL).

Bersani’s coalition still has about 34 percent of the vote, about 5 points more than Berlusconi’s, according to polls carried out before a ban on opinion surveys took effect two weeks before the elections.

A centrist list supporting Monti is expected to poll around 15 percent.

A similar score is predicted for a bushy haired, anti-establishment comedian named Beppe Grillo, who promises a guaranteed basic income for all citizens, investment in health, education and small business and the abolition of unpopular taxes.

While Grillo rules out deals with other parties, Monti could become kingmaker.

Conventional wisdom points to his forming a coalition with Bersani, with the outgoing premier taking on a senior economic role in a government led by the Democratic Party leader.

That outcome would be welcomed by the financial markets and officials in Brussels and Berlin, who are fearful both of a Berlusconi comeback and an outright Democratic Party victory that could see policy swing leftward.

However, Monti has recently expressed unease with the more radical elements backing Bersani and has hinted he could also strike a deal with the right — but only if it ditches Berlusconi.

“We can suppose perhaps that the PDL won’t always be led by the honorable Mr. Berlusconi,” Monti told Radio Uno. “You could imagine a form of collaboration, if it’s been changed and cleared of that blockage that by its very nature prevents reform.”

Italy’s complex electoral law could give Bersani’s center-left a majority in the lower house of parliament even with less than 50 percent of the vote. In the Senate, the outcome will depend on regional votes, with close races in big northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto likely to be decisive.

With less than a week until the elections, the greatest fear for many Italians is that they will produce either no clear winner or a coalition of several squabbling factions that would prevent implementing a coherent program to pull the country out of a recession that saw the economy shrink by more than 2 percent last year.

More GlobalPost

More Paul Ames.

Next Article

Related Stories

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

The week in 10 pics

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11
  • This photo. President Barack Obama has a laugh during the unveiling of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas, Tx., Thursday. Former first lady Barbara Bush, who candidly admitted this week we've had enough Bushes in the White House, is unamused.
    Reuters/Jason Reed

  • Rescue workers converge Wednesday in Savar, Bangladesh, where the collapse of a garment building killed more than 300. Factory owners had ignored police orders to vacate the work site the day before.
    AP/A.M. Ahad

  • Police gather Wednesday at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to honor campus officer Sean Collier, who was allegedly killed in a shootout with the Boston Marathon bombing suspects last week.
    AP/Elise Amendola

  • Police tape closes the site of a car bomb that targeted the French embassy in Libya Tuesday. The explosion wounded two French guards and caused extensive damage to Tripoli's upscale al-Andalus neighborhood.
    AP/Abdul Majeed Forjani

  • Protestors rage outside the residence of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Sunday following the rape of a 5-year-old girl in New Delhi. The girl was allegedly kidnapped and tortured before being abandoned in a locked room for two days.
    AP/Manish Swarup

  • Clarksville, Mo., residents sit in a life boat Monday after a Mississippi River flooding, the 13th worst on record.
    AP/Jeff Roberson

  • Workers pause Wednesday for a memorial service at the site of the West, Tx., fertilizer plant explosion, which killed 14 people and left a crater more than 90 feet wide.
    AP/The San Antonio Express-News, Tom Reel

  • Aerial footage of the devastation following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake in China's Sichuan province last Saturday. At least 180 people were killed and as many as 11,000 injured in the quake.
    AP/Liu Yinghua

  • On Wednesday, Hazmat-suited federal authorities search a martial arts studio in Tupelo, Miss., once operated by Everett Dutschke, the newest lead in the increasingly twisty ricin case. Last week, President Barack Obama, Sen. Roger Wicker, R.-Miss., and a Mississippi judge were each sent letters laced with the deadly poison.
    AP/Rogelio V. Solis

  • The lighting of Freedom Hall at the George W. Bush Presidential Center Thursday is celebrated with (what else but) red, white and blue fireworks.
    AP/David J. Phillip

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 11

Related Videos

Comments

 1 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

Salon is proud to feature content from GlobalPost, an awarding-winning international news site that focuses on original reporting from journalists stationed around the world. GlobalPost combines traditional journalistic values with the power of new media to offer a fresh perspective on global developments.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "The Shelter Cycle": Raised in a cult

Recommendations