SALON

Saturday, Jun 22, 2013 11:00 AM UTC

You’re wrong about John Boehner

He's actually doing a really good job as speaker of this nuthouse of a Congress. Here’s why

By

Topics: John Boehner, U.S. Congress, Republicans, Conservatives, Farm Bill, Editor's Picks, U.S. House of Representatives, Media Criticism, Tea Party, Eric Cantor,

You're wrong about John BoehnerJohn Boehner (Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)

Some two years after John Boehner was first reported to be getting in trouble with the Republican conference – two years of constant reports that if this or that happens, he’ll be dumped as speaker and replaced with a “real” conservative – John Boehner is still speaker of the House of Representatives.

One never knows when a politician will get sick of it all and move on, but until that happens keep your money on more stories about Boehner’s speakership at risk, more stories of floor fiascoes such as the farm bill debacle this week – and more instances of Boehner surviving all of it.

Why? Because Boehner is actually doing his job well. It’s just that it’s an impossible job right now. The basic structure for why it’s impossible is well known. Boehner’s Republicans have a relatively slim majority; on any particular vote, it’s likely that either a group of moderates or a group of radical conservatives will want to dissent; and in a polarized House it’s unlikely that Democrats will furnish many votes without substantive concessions – and cutting deals with Democrats is almost impossible when Republican activists consider any compromise a betrayal. And, meanwhile, some bills simply have to be passed, meaning that 218 votes have to be found somehow. It all means that fiascoes such as the farm bill debacle this week are extremely likely.

Beyond that, it’s especially impossible for anyone to meet the standards that the Washington press corps expects.

In particular, the idea that a speaker should be able to “control” his conference just isn’t how things work in the House. Each Republican is, to a large degree, an autonomous politician who owes little or nothing to the speaker. It’s true that Republican members of the House do tend to be very responsive to the party, both in Washington and back home in their districts. But that’s true for the speaker, too. When the party is unified, none of them can really cross it.

Within that, however, there’s just not that many levers the speaker has to get rank-and-file members to do what he or she wants. And there are even fewer for Speaker Boehner, given the post-policy Republican Party.

  • As some have noted, the demise of earmarks takes one tool away from the House leadership. One can make too much of this (there are plenty of ways to steer benefits to specific districts without earmarks), but it’s at least a small hit.
  • Many Tea Partyers and other new members (and Boehner has an enormous number of short-timers in his conference) may not think of themselves as having long House careers, and therefore may not care all that much about committee assignments and subcommittee and committee chair positions.
  • That’s doubly true in a party that just doesn’t have much of an agenda. Who cares if you’re on a key committee if there’s no legislation to move?
  • Even worse: To the extent there’s an agenda, it’s more symbolic than substantive (see “border security” on immigration; experts believe the biggest problem is people overstaying their visas, but conservatives love the idea of a wall). But symbolism by its nature is a lot harder to cut deals on than substance.
  • And on top of all that are two Tea Party themes that make it harder for the speaker: the knee-jerk “principled” opposition to compromise, and the obsession with “insiders” and “outsiders.” Basically, a lot of Republican members believe they can get in trouble with the Republican activists who got them there any time they look as if they cut a deal with the speaker, even if it achieves policy goals that those activists say they want.

That doesn’t mean a speaker is utterly without influence. After all, most of these limitations are partial, not absolute – even post-policy members who believe they’re only in Congress for a couple of terms may still care at least a little about committee assignments, for example.

What it does mean, however, is that the dysfunctional House is structural, not personal. And that means that if Boehner were bounced whoever replaced him would have exactly the same set of problems, whether it was Majority Leader Eric Cantor or anyone else. Even a rebel conservative would, simply by virtue of becoming speaker, suddenly become the dreaded “establishment” that Tea Partyers are looking for to rebel against.

Indeed, under these conditions – which should at least persist as long as divided government persists – Cantor or anyone else would be nuts to accept the job. So even though it’s in Cantor’s interest to cultivate a reputation as the real conservative alternative to Boehner, it’s also in his interest to keep the current speaker in office.

What might break the logjam could be a Republican landslide, which would suddenly make it possible to enact very conservative legislation into law. It’s also possible that over time, Members elected in the Tea Party waves who stick around may wind up wanting to build careers in the House – and thus have requests of the party leadership that could lead to more going along to get along.

But all that is in the distant future at this point. Until then, John Boehner is doing a solid job in impossible circumstances. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

Jonathan Bernstein

Jonathan Bernstein writes at a Plain Blog About Politics. Follow him at @jbplainblog More Jonathan Bernstein.

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

7 motorist-friendly camping sites

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Sponsored Post

  • White River National Forest via Lower Crystal Lake, Colorado
    For those OK with the mainstream, White River Forest welcomes more than 10 million visitors a year, making it the most-visited recreation forest in the nation. But don’t hate it for being beautiful; it’s got substance, too. The forest boasts 8 wilderness areas, 2,500 miles of trail, 1,900 miles of winding service system roads, and 12 ski resorts (should your snow shredders fit the trunk space). If ice isn’t your thing: take the tire-friendly Flat Tops Trail Scenic Byway — 82 miles connecting the towns of Meeker and Yampa, half of which is unpaved for you road rebels.
    fs.usda.gov/whiteriveryou


    Image credit: Getty

  • Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forest via Noontootla Creek, Georgia
    Boasting 10 wildernesses, 430 miles of trail and 1,367 miles of trout-filled stream, this Georgia forest is hailed as a camper’s paradise. Try driving the Ridge and Valley Scenic Byway, which saw Civil War battles fought. If the tall peaks make your engine tremble, opt for the relatively flat Oconee National Forest, which offers smaller hills and an easy trail to the ghost town of Scull Shoals. Scaredy-cats can opt for John’s Mountain Overlook, which leads to twin waterfalls for the sensitive sightseer in you.
    fs.usda.gov/conf


    Image credit: flickr/chattoconeenf

  • Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area via Green Road, Michigan
    The only national forest in Lower Michigan, the Huron-Mainstee spans nearly 1 million acres of public land. Outside the requisite lush habitat for fish and wildlife on display, the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area is among the biggest hooks for visitors: offering beach camping with shores pounded by big, cerulean surf. Splash in some rum and you just might think you were in the Caribbean.
    fs.usda.gov/hmnf


    Image credit: umich.edu

  • Canaan Mountain via Backcountry Canaan Loop Road, West Virginia
    A favorite hailed by outdoorsman and author Johnny Molloy as some of the best high-country car camping sites anywhere in the country, you don’t have to go far to get away. Travel 20 miles west of Dolly Sods (among the busiest in the East) to find the Canaan Backcountry (for more quiet and peace). Those willing to leave the car for a bit and foot it would be remiss to neglect day-hiking the White Rim Rocks, Table Rock Overlook, or the rim at Blackwater River Gorge.
    fs.usda.gov/mnf


    Image credit: Getty

  • Mt. Rogers NRA via Hurricane Creek Road, North Carolina
    Most know it as the highest country they’ll see from North Carolina to New Hampshire. What they may not know? Car campers can get the same grand experience for less hassle. Drop the 50-pound backpacks and take the highway to the high country by stopping anywhere on the twisting (hence the name) Hurricane Road for access to a 15-mile loop that boasts the best of the grassy balds. It’s the road less travelled, and the high one, at that.
    fs.usda.gov/gwj


    Image credit: wikipedia.org

  • Long Key State Park via the Overseas Highway, Florida
    Hiking can get old; sometimes you’d rather paddle. For a weekend getaway of the coastal variety and quieter version of the Florida Keys that’s no less luxe, stick your head in the sand (and ocean, if snorkeling’s your thing) at any of Long Key’s 60 sites. Canoes and kayaks are aplenty, as are the hot showers and electric power source amenities. Think of it as the getaway from the typical getaway.
    floridastateparks.org/longkey/default.cfm


    Image credit: floridastateparks.org

  • Grand Canyon National Park via Crazy Jug Point, Arizona
    You didn’t think we’d neglect one of the world’s most famous national parks, did you? Nor would we dare lead you astray with one of the busiest parts of the park. With the Colorado River still within view of this cliff-edge site, Crazy Jug is a carside camper’s refuge from the troops of tourists. Find easy access to the Bill Hall Trail less than a mile from camp, and descend to get a peek at the volcanic Mt. Trumbull. (Fear not: It’s about as active as your typical lazy Sunday in front of the tube, if not more peaceful.)
    fs.usda.gov/kaibab


    Image credit: flickr/Irish Typepad

  • As the go-to (weekend) getaway car for fiscally conscious field trips with friends, the 2013 MINI Convertible is your campground racer of choice, allowing you and up to three of your co-pilots to take in all the beauty of nature high and low. And with a fuel efficiency that won’t leave you in the latter, you won’t have to worry about being left stranded (or awkwardly asking to go halfsies on gas expenses).


    Image credit: miniusa.com

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Related Videos

Comments

 45 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

vote
Let's Stop Screwing Around and Impeach James Clapper: After lying to Congress about all the different ways the NSA's spying on us, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper lies about how he lied. Call the White House at 202 456-1111 and Tell Obama to Get Rid of Clapper
123 points124 points | 8 comments
vote
Machiavelli doesn’t belong to the 1 percent | "The Prince" is oft-quoted on Wall Street, but its author was a hero of the working class who despised elites
68 points69 points | 16 comments
vote
We must hate our children
61 points62 points | 11 comments
vote
Machiavelli doesn’t belong to the 1 percent | "The Prince" is oft-quoted on Wall Street, but its author was a hero of the working class who despised elites
55 points56 points | 16 comments
vote
Let's Stop Screwing Around and Impeach James Clapper: After lying to Congress about all the different ways the NSA's spying on us, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper lies about how he lied. Call the White House at 202 456-1111 and Tell Obama to Get Rid of Clapper
61 points62 points | 6 comments

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "The Joker": Laughing at life's deepest sorrows