Leaving Iraq? Not so fast

Early signs indicate that Democrats will be very cautious about redeployment, and they want to make sure W. takes the blame.

By Mark Benjamin

Read more: Politics, James Baker, News, Iraq, Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Mark Benjamin, Iraq Study Group

AP and Reuters photos

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., speaks during a news conference in Washington on Nov. 13, 2006. Right: U.S. soldiers in Baghdad.

Nov. 22, 2006 | WASHINGTON -- On Monday, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama told a home-state audience how the Democrats would use their new power in the House and Senate to help deliver the United States out of the wilderness in Iraq. In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs titled "A Way Forward in Iraq," Obama called for "a phased redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq on a timetable that would begin in four to six months."

"Redeployment" is fast becoming the rallying cry for Democrats, who have new power in Congress and are getting fresh attention from the media. Obama was echoing several prominent Democrats who floated the word in last week's electoral afterglow, including new Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid but starting with Sen. Carl Levin.

At a standing-room-only press conference in the Senate Radio-Television Gallery last Monday, Levin announced his priorities as incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. "The first priority would be to find a way forward to change the course in Iraq," Levin said. "Most Democrats share the view that we should pressure the White House to commence the phased redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq in four to six months." Levin told reporters that the centerpiece of the Democrats' plan for Iraq was to pass a resolution to start getting out of that war-torn country within half a year.

Democrats have seized on what they say is a mandate from the public to alter the strategy in Iraq, mixing tough talk with promises of action -- of "redeployment." But if the voters who gave them control of both houses of Congress think a real change in policy is imminent, early signs suggest that the Democrats won't be delivering very much very soon. The proposal that Levin outlined remains vague, is modeled on an earlier proposal that failed, and leaves key decisions in the hands of President Bush. With their slim majority in the Senate, the Democrats may not have the votes to force a radical change in direction, and have limited powers to accomplish that goal anyway. The Democrats' current approach, some political experts say, seems to be aimed at keeping Bush saddled with the Iraq problem, and forcing him to be the one who loses the war.

What the Democrats are advancing is a "non-binding resolution." It is an articulation of majority opinion in Congress, but it carries no real legal weight. Second, while the plan may call for a "phased redeployment" of troops, Levin told reporters that the resolution would not specify what redeployment really means -- whether one soldier would come home in the next four to six months or 50,000 would be boarding planes. That would be left to the White House.

There is nothing on paper yet, but Levin said the proposal might be similar to a resolution he tried to push through the Senate in June that called for the "phased redeployment of United States forces from Iraq this year." It was defeated in a 60-39 vote. Six Democrats voted against it -- Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Mark Dayton of Minnesota, Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Dayton has been replaced by a different Democrat, and Bill Nelson appeared with Levin at his press conference, but Levin will still need new Democratic votes -- and, almost certainly, some GOP support, to pass the resolution.

And Democrats have been sketchy on whether they will try to force through the resolution at all when they do take over Congress next year. Instead, they want to see what other alternatives present themselves first. Levin said Democrats want to hear about ideas on Iraq from the Iraq Study Group led by former Secretary of State James Baker. Democrats also want the results of an internal, ongoing Pentagon strategy "scrub," or policy review, that is supposed to generate some new notions as well. (The Washington Post reported Monday that the closely guarded "scrub" has boiled down to three options: sending more troops, reducing the size of the force but planning to stay longer, or pulling out.)

The truly cautious nature of the Democratic approach became apparent in a chat Levin had with a bevy of reporters after his press conference, when the TV cameras had been turned off. Levin seemed to admit that the focus of the proposal was not to get a substantial number of U.S. troops out of Iraq quickly. Instead, Levin said it was more important that the Iraqi government get the "message" that the U.S. might begin to leave Iraq sometime soon. Faced with the prospect of a full-fledged civil war likely to follow a U.S. withdrawal, the threat of that redeployment might force the Iraqis to cut a political deal to save the country from the abyss.

The goal, Levin said, was to put "pressure" on the Iraqis. "What they need to hear and what the American people need to hear is that we are darned impatient," he explained. In other words, the resolution is more of a suggestion to the president that he threaten the Iraqis with a withdrawal, rather than a push for a significant withdrawal anytime soon.

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