King Kaufman's Sports Daily

2005: The most predictable, unpredictable NFL season in history (excluding 1920-2002). And now: Playoff predictions!

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Jan. 6, 2006 | The 2005 NFL season was simultaneously the most and least predictable year in history.

By "history," what I mean is the history of this column tracking experts' predictions, which could also be stated as "since 2003." Doesn't sound quite as good, but come on, we're talking about history here.

The 28 participants in the Third Annual King Kaufman Sports Daily NFL Preseason Predictions Contest, Which Needs a Better Name -- or KKSDNFLPPC, WNBN III -- did a historically bad job at picking who would win the divisions and the wild-card spots. But on a week-to-week basis, the 15-member Panel o' Experts was better than ever at picking the winners of individual games.

Still with me? No? Good, because I'm about to reveal my picks for the first weekend of the playoffs, and given my record I'd rather not have too many people around to witness that.

But first I have to reveal the winners of the two contests, so that the champs can know to claim their coveted prize, which is dinner at my house, home cooking neither guaranteed nor implied, and please call first.

The winner of the Preseason Predictions Contest, Which Needs etc. etc., is Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, who is unusual among this column's contest participants in that he knows he's participating.

Contacted by e-mail, Schatz said, "I rule!"

Schatz won with 14 of a possible 24 points. The contest awards two points for each correct pick of the eight division winners and four wild-card teams. A single point is awarded if a panelist picks a team to win a division and it takes a wild card, or vice versa. Fourteen is an all-time low.

In 2003, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated won with 17 points, and last year the consensus of all of the Football Outsiders writers won with 18. Banks finished in a six-way tie for 20th this season with six points. The Outsiders consensus was tied for third with 10.

Schatz was also the leader in picking five division winners, also an all-time low. He was the only entrant who correctly picked all four division champs in one conference, sweeping the AFC.

Banks picked six division winners in 2003 and the Outsiders consensus had five and a half last year, having split on one division. The panel averaged 7.29 points and 2.29 division winners per entry this year, compared with 10.93 points and 3.93 division winners in 2003 and 12.03 and 3.85 in 2004.

There are a lot of plausible explanations for why the panel's performance was so poor this season, but my theory is that we all just got a lot dumber since last year. The complete standings are in this column's Table Talk thread.

Next page: Weekly Panel o' Experts champ revealed! Plus: Playoff predictions