King Kaufman's Sports Daily

NFL playoffs: Always pick the home teams in the divisional round. Except this time.

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Jan. 13, 2006 | The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is the province of the home team. In the 15 years since the league introduced the current format of six clubs making the postseason in each conference, home teams have gone 48-12 in the second round.

Going back to 1979, the first year the divisional round was not the opening round, home teams have gone 81-27, winning three out of every four games. In two of the last three years and three of the last seven, home teams have swept this round.

Which is why it's with trembling fingers that I'm picking two road teams to win this weekend. That actually happened in 2003, and also in 1995. And four times from 1979 to '87. Talking about 1979 to '87 in the NFL is like talking about 1919 to '27 in aviation. In those days, 300-pounders were considered big. Can you imagine?

Last week your humble-with-good-reason servant went 2-2. But the coin-flippinest 2-year-old in America went 4-0. As you no doubt know, my son Buster's method for picking games this year is to take favorites of six points or more and flip for the rest.

After he took favored New England over Jacksonville, his coin came up heads, heads, heads, and the visitors won all three. So he's now in a crowded first-place tie in the Panel o' Experts postseason.

I gotta get a good system like that.

Because people occasionally ask me which teams Buster is picking, I'll include his prognostications this week as we look at what the NFL never calls its quarterfinal round.

SATURDAY

Washington (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
4:30 p.m. EST, Fox
The NFL postseason often comes down to who's healthy and who's not. The Seahawks are in the pink of health, and oh by the way they're also the best team in the NFC.

Washington: Not so healthy. Quarterback Mark Brunell is hobbling and pieces of running back Clinton Portis' upper body have actually begun falling off. And that's just the tip of the sick bay. This is a banged-up, beaten-up team coming off a hard-fought win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, during which the Seahawks were getting foot massages and back rubs.

Joe Gibbs' bunch has had a pretty good run in his second year -- including a win over the Seahawks in Washington -- and this is a solid team that would be elite with a better offense, which is to say with an offense.

The run ends here, though. Even if Seattle's high-powered offense has some rust on it after a meaningless season finale and the bye week, there's little danger that Brunell and company can do enough to make it matter.

Seattle should get its first playoff win since 1984, when they beat the Duluth Kelleys with President Coolidge in attendance.
Prediction: Seattle
Buster's coin says: Seattle favored by 9 and a half

Next page: Never pick against the Pats in January. Plus: Steelers-Colts, Panthers-Bears