King Kaufman's Sports Daily
Leaders in our newly invented stat: Pitcher run value, or PRV. Please pronounce it. Plus: We want the "MNF" backup announcers.
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Sept. 12, 2006 | They say there's never a math professor around when you need one, but one came to my rescue when I asked for help with my newly invented baseball stat three months ago, and so, without further ado, this column is proud to present the current National League leaders in pitcher run value, or PRV, which I'd like you to pronounce, as in "perv."
To skip to the good part, the leader is Chris Carpenter of St. Louis at 2.79. If you noticed that Carpenter is also the league leader in earned-run average at 2.84, and that those two numbers are awfully similar, please come to the front of the class. And be quiet.
The calculations here were provided by Chris Rasmussen, a math professor at Rice University. Any errors are mine, though.
PRV, as you no doubt recall, having waited breathlessly for three months, is an attempt to account for more of a National League pitcher's contribution to his team than just his work on the mound. Pitchers bat in the National League, after all, and the few who are good at it provide some extra value.
Not much, but hey, the boffo stats have already been invented. Somebody beat me to home runs, OK?
For offensive value, PRV uses a simple formula for the Bill James stat runs created, which is a measure of how many runs a batter was personally responsible for. The formula looks like this: [Total bases divided by plate appearances] times [hits + walks + hit-by-pitch].
We then divide that by the number of innings pitched, multiply that by nine, and voilà, a number we'll call runs created per nine innings pitched, or RC/9IP. In other words, while ERA measures how many earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, RC/9IP measures how many he contributes with his bat. Subtract RC/9IP from ERA, and you have his net effort, which is his PRV.
By the way, the reason we're using ERA, rather than all runs including unearned ones, to figure PRV is that all runs created as a batter are earned. If you're safe on an error, you're credited with making an out in your batting stats.
Now, most pitchers don't account for too many runs, as we'll see in a little while. In fact, the top 10 in N.L. PRV looks an awful lot like the top 10 in ERA. It's the same 10 guys. The only difference is that Carlos Zambrano of Chicago, with an RC/9IP of .15, moves up from ninth in ERA to sixth in PRV.
Zambrano's ERA is 3.50, his PRV is 3.35. So if you count his hitting, he's been worth more than Chris Capuano of Milwaukee, Jason Jennings of Colorado and Jason Schmidt of San Francisco, all of whom are ahead of him in ERA.
Here are the top 10 in PRV through Monday night, with their ERA noted as well:
| ERA | PRV | |
| 1. Carpenter, St.L. | 2.84 | 2.79 |
| 2. Webb, Ari. | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| 3. Oswalt, Hou. | 3.15 | 3.03 |
| 4. Johnson, Fla. | 3.20 | 3.16 |
| 5. Arroyo, Cin. | 3.29 | 3.17 |
| 6. Zambrano, Chi. | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7. Schmidt, S.F. | 3.45 | 3.37 |
| 8. Jennings, Col. | 3.48 | 3.41 |
| 9. Capuano, Mil. | 3.49 | 3.44 |
| 10. Lowe, L.A. | 3.64 | 3.58 |
