King Kaufman's Sports Daily

Baseball's amateur draft: 42 years of fascinating failure. And it's now at your fingertips thanks to Baseball-Reference.

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June 6, 2007 | These 10 people are part of a very specific group. I'll give you a hint that they were all pitchers, but see if you can guess what that exact thing is that they have in common:

Tim Belcher, Stan Hilton, Jackie Davidson, Darrel Akerfelds, Ray Hayward, Joel Davis, Rich Stoll, Wayne Dotson, Brian Holman and Erik Sonberg.

Give up? They were all taken in the first round of the 1983 amateur baseball draft. The 11th pitcher taken was Roger Clemens.

Six of the 10 eventually made the major leagues, where they won a combined 204 games. And 146 of those were won by Belcher, who was the overall No. 1 pick, believe it or not, by the Minnesota Twins but did his winning -- and 140 games worth of losing -- for the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Royals and Angels in a 14-year big-league career.

Clemens is scheduled to go for win No. 349 Saturday when he makes his season debut for the New York Yankees, but my point here isn't har har major league teams sure are dumb for passing over guys like Clemens for guys like Belcher, and never mind Belcher, guys like Stan Hilton. Though don't let me stop you from saying that.

The point is that I learned this from yet another fun new tool at Baseball-Reference.com, one that lets you explore every baseball draft since 1965, searchable by franchise, round, pick, position and school.

What a fun way of exploring just how insanely difficult it is to evaluate baseball talent.

Full disclosure: I know Baseball-Reference.com proprietor Sean Forman. Though I started writing about him and his site long before I met him, we're now friendly acquaintances, long-distance friends. I'd have written this exact same column if none of that were true, but now you know and can ignore me as shilling for a pal if you'd like.

You know firsthand how hard it is to evaluate baseball talent if you play fantasy baseball. Anybody take Carlos Zambrano this year? How about Carlos Delgado? B.J. Ryan. J.D. Drew. Who had Jason Marquis as one of the best pitchers in the National League?

Those are all established big-leaguers and they're just a few of the many who have been surprising this year, one way or the other. Same as any year, and any sport. Imagine how tough it is to see the future of a high school kid, or even a college kid. David Price of Vanderbilt, a left-handed pitcher who's the slam-dunk overall No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft Thursday, is no sure thing, if history's a guide.

Next page: Everyone knows the Mike Piazza story, but there are millions of stories hiding in those lists