King Kaufman's Sports Daily

The AFC is no longer the NFC's daddy. Plus: NFL Week 12 picks. And: Grey Cup pick!

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Nov. 21, 2007 | Because the AFC is so vastly superior to the NFC ... Oh, wait. Hang on. I accidentally hit the macro to type that phrase. What I meant to type was: Have you noticed that the NFC seems to have caught up to the AFC?

It's easy to think the AFC is the dominant conference, since it really has been dominant for the last few seasons, and therefore a lot of us typists and chatterers have "AFC is vastly superior to the NFC" on an automatic cut-and-paste on our computers.

Plus, the New England Patriots are running roughshod over the league, and until three weeks ago the Indianapolis Colts were sort of co-roughshodding. But the Patriots are just one team, and they could just as well be in the NFC. You can't give the whole conference credit for the Patriots being 10-0. In fact, you might do the opposite: Who are they mostly beating?

The facts simply don't back up the theory -- which, don't get me wrong, is no reason to abandon a beautiful theory. But the AFC-is-dominant theory probably isn't sexy enough to buck reality.

The facts, among others, are that the NFC is 23-21 against the AFC. The nonpareil Patriots and some of the NFC dogs have only played two of their four interconference games and the NFC-leading Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and some of the AFC dogs have played three or all four of theirs, so that's maybe a little misleading, but only a little.

The six AFC teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today are 13-5 against the NFC. The six NFC playoff teams are 11-5 against the AFC. In head-to-head games, the AFC playoff teams have won four of six against the NFC playoff teams, but in three of those games, the NFC playoff teams have been represented by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have gone 1-2.

Both conferences have two good divisions and two lousy ones. The AFC North and South are good, East and West are bad. The NFC North and East are good, South and West are bad.

Both have a similarly sized handful of teams that have, for the moment, separated themselves at the top and bottom. The AFC has New England, Pittsburgh -- Sunday's loss to the Jets notwithstanding -- and maybe Indianapolis in the penthouse, Miami, the Jets and Oakland in the outhouse. The NFC has Dallas, Green Bay and maybe the Giants up top, with Detroit sort of hanging around after Sunday's loss to the Giants. San Francisco and St. Louis are at the bottom, with Atlanta having crawled out of the muck.

The AFC probably still has a slight advantage, most notably at the very top, meaning the Patriots, but also because the next group after the elite teams favors the AFC. The wild cards, weak-division champs and top playoff non-qualifiers in the AFC are a stronger group than in the NFC. But it's just not true that the AFC is dominating.

Which means people with jobs like mine have to change our assumptions a little bit, not to mention our macros. And you know how much we hate doing that.

Next thing you know, someone will try to convince us that teams don't have to establish the run to set up the pass.

Next page: Thanksgiving: NFC game of the week and two turkeys. Plus: The weekend. And: Bonus pick! Grey Cup