Ask the pilot

Will I be safer flying Qantas than any other airline? And what happens to pilots who screw up?

By Patrick Smith

Read more: Technology & Business, Business, P. Smith, Ask the Pilot

July 14, 2006 | Quick, what's the safest airline in the world?

If you're like most people, you probably think it's Qantas. The 86-year-old Australian icon, known for its striking kangaroo tails and koala bear TV commercials, is most famous for being the only major airline to have never had a crash. Its reputation was immortalized through an exchange in the 1988 movie "Rain Man," and there's even a Q-and-A snippet in my book that begins, "Is it true that Qantas, the Australian airline, has never suffered a fatal accident?" "Yes," I reply.

How to weasel out of this one? If by "yes" I actually mean "no," then my answer is correct. Or, um, er, it depends on your definition of "never."

There are more than a few airlines whose reputations, fairly or unfairly, precede them. In this regard, Qantas stands as a kind of anti-Aeroflot. Whereas many people's perceptions of Aeroflot involve vodka-swilling pilots at the controls of patched-together Cold War rust buckets, just as many, myself included, have fallen for the myth of the Immaculate Qantas. Perhaps understandably, Qantas itself makes few efforts to dispel this false history, and most of the accident data banks perpetuate the same misinformation. Let the record show that the history of Qantas is scarred by at least seven fatal incidents. And remind me to have the editors at Penguin repair that reference in time for the next printing.

Until then, there's an important caveat that allows a bit of breathing room: Each of those Qantas mishaps occurred during the airline's first four decades or so of operations, the last in 1951. Jets were introduced to the fleet in 1959, and the fatality-free streak has endured. (The closest Qantas has come to an all-out disaster was probably a runway overrun at Bangkok six years ago involving a 747 with more than 400 people on board. The jumbo jet was substantially damaged, but there were no deaths.) A 55-year run might not be an 86-year run, but it's certainly nothing to sneeze at. Either way, Qantas posts an impeccable résumé.

But so do many others. Depending how the data is parsed, arguments can be made that various other carriers are statistically safer, even with one or more crashes marring their records. For all its merits, Qantas is a relatively small carrier (126 ships as of 2006, according to Air Transport World), and a high percentage of its flying is medium or long haul. Accidents, infrequent as they are, tend to happen during arrival and departure phases of flight. Per plane, Qantas makes considerably fewer takeoffs and landings than most of its competitors. Others in this category include Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific and Emirates, all of whom, coincidentally or otherwise, boast similarly stellar, if not quite perfect safety records.

"Qantas," incidentally, is the name of a rare, winged Tasmanian marsupial known for its longevity. Either that, or it's an acronym for Queensland and Northern Territory Aerial Services, founded in 1920.

So, if Qantas isn't the safest airline, which is? That's a question I'm hit with, in one form or another, rather consistently. "I need to get to Seattle," a fearful flier will pose. "Who should I take, Northwest or United?" Considering the rarity of crashes in general, engaging in these sorts of hyper-analyses is mostly a waste of time. You can drive yourself crazy poring over the fractions of a percentage that differentiate one carrier's fatality rates from another. If you feel more comfortable picking Northwest over United, or Lufthansa over Korean Air, go for it. Will you actually be safer? On some minuscule statistical level, possibly; on a practical level, not really. (This same line of reasoning extends to equally popular aircraft vs. aircraft debate. Which are more trustworthy, 737s or A320s?)

Virtually every established airline (and every certificated commercial plane) is "safe" by any useful definition, as examined in this space back in February 2005 -- initially here, and then in a follow-up that included Ask the Pilot's "Quarter-Century Safety Achievers," a list of nearly three dozen airlines from around the globe that have been crashless for a minimum of 25 years (now 26 years). I'll repeat the list for the benefit of new readers, and because, frankly, it's fascinating and deserves another look:

Air Berlin, Air Jamaica, Air Malta, Air Mauritius, Air Niugini (Papua New Guinea), Air New Zealand, Air Portugal, Air Seychelles, Air Tanzania, Air Zimbabwe, Aer Lingus, All Nippon Airways (one crew member killed by deranged passenger), Austrian Airlines, Bahamasair, Britannia Airways, BWIA West Indies Airways, Cathay Pacific, Cayman Airways, Finnair, Hawaiian Airlines, Icelandair, Meridiana (Italy), Monarch Airlines (UK), Pluna (Uruguay), Royal Brunei, Royal Jordanian, Syrianair, TACA (a Central American collective headquartered in El Salvador), Tunisair, Tyrolean Airways (Austria).

Yes, and Qantas. (Certain small companies are omitted, and all qualifiers have been in existence since at least 1980.) Subtractions from the ranks since '05 include the now-defunct Ghana Airways, and our own Southwest Airlines. Last winter, a young boy was killed when a Southwest 737 slid off a runway at Chicago-Midway. For what it's worth, the boy was in a car, not in the plane.

Getting back to "Rain Man," here's that dialogue between Tom Cruise and Dustin Hoffman:

"All airlines have crashed at one time or another," Cruise says to Hoffman. "That doesn't mean that they are not safe."

"Qantas," responds Hoffman. "Qantas never crashed."

I love that exchange because it's Cruise's character, not Hoffman's, who makes the correct and valuable point.

And speaking of thespian-scientologists who know a thing or two about planes, including how to fly them, here's a shot of John Travolta and his beloved toy, his vintage Boeing 707, done up in commemorative Qantas colors for the airline's 85th anniversary. Travolta is qualified on the 747 as well, which Qantas trained him to fly. John, if you're out there, I've got an autographed book for you. Just don't mind the error on page 199.

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