Unfortunately, the Bush administration, undeterred by the bloody chaos in Iraq, still seems intent on spreading its ill-fitting idea of democracy in the region, with Syria its possible next target. A well-informed analyst in Damascus told me that the United States is preparing an "Iraq scenario" for the country, including possibly imposing a no-fly zone in the Kurdish-dominated north. The United States' rumored plans are likely to backfire, slowing down reform or halting it altogether. Worse, they could plunge Syria and Lebanon into violent chaos.

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The Hay al-Tahrir neighborhood in Mosul is mostly Sunni Arab, but the troops guarding the Jana'ain high school where the polling took place were pulled in from the Shiite south and the Kurdish north. The election officials who oversaw the polls were all from outside the city -- 11 of them Christians and one Yezidi. In fact, almost everything that had to with the elections in Mosul was imported, and hardly any of it was Sunni Arab.

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Many foreign diplomats and some Syrian analysts say the government of Hafez's son Bashar can no longer afford those policies. And there are reasons to believe that the Syrian leader himself is trying to move away from his nation's traditional role as a bastion of Arab militancy. Yet during a recent visit to Damascus, a wide range of observers -- including a senior Palestinian leader, Iraqi politicians and local activists -- attested that the policies are continuing. Definitive proof is hard to come by here, in one of the most closed and controlling regimes in the world. Lebanon, which Damascus regards as its own private fiefdom, is the only place where Syria makes no attempt to hide its hand. But Syria still seems to be playing the games that under Hafez Assad made it famous for "punching above its weight" in the region.

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While Palestinian society and institutions have been devastated by the violence of the last three and a half years, Israel is actually doing very nicely, thank you. The intifada has failed to break the country, even economically. It's true that Israel went into a recession during the violence, but that was also a result of the global downturn. Now growth has been restored, albeit at a lower rate than before.

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In fact, neither side is right. These Cold War-era categories and battles are no longer relevant in addressing the issues posed by Islam, terrorism and the politics of the Middle East, and they obscure the real issues at stake. A further distraction are the passions, positive and negative, inspired by George W. Bush: Those who despise him are unable to accept that anything he does could be defensible, while his acolytes are equally myopic about the dangers and errors of his policies.

By insisting that the war on terror is a moral stand against evil, hawks elevate terrorism to a unique category that it doesn't deserve. They scare citizens into giving up freedoms -- undercutting America's credibility as the defender of freedom. They blur distinctions between different types of threats and risk demonizing Islam itself -- a dangerous development that is already sharply felt by people in the Middle East.

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The capture has thrown into sharp relief the differences between the Sunnis who ruled Iraq for so long and the victims of Saddam -- the Kurds and the majority Shiites. In many Sunni areas, people demonstrated in support of the dictator after his capture, leading to dozens of dead and wounded. This is in marked contrast to the Shi'a areas where people on the whole are relaxed and happy at the news.

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"We will do everything in our power," the president intoned, "to make sure that day never comes." Seven weeks later, the first bombs exploded in Baghdad.

Today, more than five months after the fall of Baghdad, none of the weapons of mass destruction that Bush cited as justification for the invasion, whether nuclear, biological or chemical, have been found. Despite the best efforts of the Iraq Survey Group, a team of 1,400 American and British inspectors led by David Kay who have been scouring the country for four months, not a single shred of evidence has so far appeared supporting the president's assertions. On Sunday, the Times of London reported that American and British officials had decided to delay indefinitely publishing the group's report. The reason: The inspectors had found no evidence that the weapons existed.

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"I was anxious, I was worried about the outcome," recalls Walid (not his real name) almost two months later in the safety of a cafeteria in a Baghdad hotel. Though he'd done two years of service in Saddam Hussein's army, this was to be his first time in combat and he felt ill prepared. Only days before had he received training in the use of the rocket-propelled grenade launcher, after having joined what he calls a "resistance group" in the area around Fallujah. But he insists he was unafraid: "If I die for my cause," he says, "that's good."

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"Did you hear that Condi Rice used the term 'apartheid wall' with a group of Jewish lobbyists?" a foreign aide in one of the PLO's legal departments crows to Khader. A glum looking middle-aged man wearing a photographer's jacket with pockets, Khader smiles politely at the aide's exclamation. "That is exactly what we need," he says. It's doubtful that Condoleezza Rice, the national security advisor to President Bush, actually made the remark; no confirmation can be found anywhere. But the Palestinians have correctly gauged that something has shifted in the Bush administration's attitude toward the barrier.

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Al-Zendi's village was one of hundreds that disappeared in the "Arabization" campaign that Saddam Hussein and his Baath regime initiated in the north of the country, around the oil-rich centers of Kirkuk and Mosul. The campaign started in the 1980s and was actively pursued until the very end of the regime. The aim was to secure the oil regions by getting rid of the troublesome Kurdish population (the Kurds rose in revolt against Saddam in 1982) and replacing them with members of loyal Arab Sunni tribes.

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From all parts of Iraq the pilgrims have been streaming toward Karbala for almost a week -- openly, proudly and, despite the mournful occasion, joyously. For the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein there is a clear mass popular expression of the relief of the people that the dictator is no longer in power. "Thank you, Bush!" many of the pilgrims shout, as they give the thumbs-up to the U.S.A. The religious holiday is turning into a huge festival of liberation.

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The whole issue of Iraqi soldiers -- how many died or were wounded, how many deserted or fought to the end, where they are now -- is surrounded by a veil of secrecy. Neither the U.S. forces in Iraq nor the Iraqis themselves seem to be willing to delve into it too deep. As a result, conspiracy theories about Iraq's defeat, involving either treason or the U.S. use of "low-level nuclear devices," abound. Paranoia rules; even ordinary or wounded Iraqi soldiers, fearing that U.S. troops will arrest them, refuse to identify themselves. Members of the elite units have a better-founded fear of becoming the target of popular revenge, even for individual misdeeds. Says one former Republican Guard conscript: "Even today, after two years, if I find my officer in the street I'll beat him to a pulp."

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Here in Tikrit and its environs, where Saddam Hussein has his roots, U.S. soldiers are emphatically not seen as liberators, but as occupiers.

There are reasons why people here are not celebrating the passing of the old regime. The town did well under Saddam. Many of its inhabitants served in the army or were senior government employees. Economically, Tikrit is definitely a cut above other regional capitals in Iraq. Shiny new government buildings and other public facilities, such as the mosque, add to its relatively wealthy image.

The Tikritis' privilege and dominance have led to envy and anger elsewhere in Iraq. "Saddam has been a curse for Tikrit," says a retired government employee who asks not to be named -- the fear of Saddam and his supporters is deeply rooted. "He gave Tikrit a bad name," the man persists nevertheless. "With his sons he did terrible things and we will be the ones to pay the price.

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"Welcome to Al-Thawra, city of the revolution," a sign on the building reads. Until a week ago this area of Baghdad was better known as Saddam City, the poorest neighborhood of the Iraqi capital. Now it's the most dangerous one.

The moment the first shots ring out, the crowd surges forward, pushing the sheiks in charge of the gathering up against the glass facade of the building. I fall into a corner, with at least two layers of people on top of me. Despite the weight, it gives me a relative -- and probably misguided -- feeling of safety. There is a moment of total confusion as the bullets rip into the plaster of the front of the building, then the sheiks' guards respond. The resulting firefight leads to even more panic.

Throughout the manic scrambling to get away from the shooters, several people in the crowd keep worrying about the safety of their Western visitor. "I will protect you," says a man who waves a pistol in front of my face. I really don't want to see a weapon at that moment.

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Syria has been one of the most vocal opponents in the Middle East of the war in neighboring Iraq. Even now, with American troops in the center of Baghdad, the government in Damascus is refusing to recognize that an earthquake has taken place next door. It keeps up its invective against what it calls this "illegal, imperialist, colonialist war against the people of Iraq." It is still only possible to cross into Iraq from Syria with an official visa from an Iraqi government that does not control its own territory anymore.

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The regime has used a carrot-and-stick approach to control local tribesmen, particularly in the north and south -- respectively, Kurds and Shiites -- alternately threatening and bribing their leaders into submission. The bitter hatreds and lust for revenge to which this policy gave rise were revealed in the 1991 post-Gulf War rebellions, when in both regions Baath-party activists and their sympathizers were slaughtered. Sheik Ahmed Muheddin actually served as a deputy in Iraq's parliament and was high on the list of enemies of the Kurdish rebels: In 1991 he wisely left his home in the northern town of Agrah and fled to government-held Mosul, taking several thousand Zangena with him. He clearly doesn't cherish the prospect of his place of refuge being taken over by Kurdish or even American forces.

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In fact, both sides to the debate are partly right. But because of the ideologically driven partisanship that has sprung up around the issue, neither can admit it.

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"In any other country, the leader would have resigned by now, don't you think?" an Iraqi government employee, who for obvious reasons does not want to be named, asks imploringly. A local political analyst who is normally much more cautious says angrily, "What kind of government is this? It drags its people into all kinds of dangerous adventures without even consulting us."

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While the pope was sending a seemingly hopeless message of peace, the Iraqis also received a more strident message of support. Osama bin Laden, or at least someone purporting to be him, exhorted the Iraqi people on the Al-Jazeera Arab satellite television network to stand united against the infidel. "This crusader war concerns all Muslims, whether the socialist party or Saddam remain in power or not," he said.

Rather than welcoming bin Laden's support, the regime saw in it a dangerous appeal over their heads to the people -- although in this country where satellite and cable television are nonexistent, few heard the tape firsthand or at all. "This is not for the benefit of the Iraqi people," Muthaffer Adhami, a member of parliament, rushed to say. "This is not supporting the Iraqis."

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