Salon.com > John B. Judis

The trouble with Howard Dean

Fri, 11 Jul 2003 22:03:00 +0000

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is the only Democratic presidential candidate who has stirred any interest beyond party regulars. He has established himself as the "straight talk" candidate in a field dominated by trimmers and positioners. He has shown Democrats that they can raise money without depending on big donors and soft money from labor unions. Yet if the Democrats nominate him as their presidential candidate, he is almost sure to lose to George W. Bush, and perhaps by a very large margin.

Much of Dean's current support comes because he was the only one of the leading candidates to have forthrightly opposed the war with Iraq. In a Zogby poll taken on April 4, when popular support for the war was at its height, 27 percent of the Democrats "strongly opposed," and 15 percent "somewhat opposed," the war. Many of these antiwar Democrats, whose ranks have swelled since then, look to Dean as their candidate. Dean has also won points from Democrats because he has seemed to be speaking his mind, while John Edwards, Dick Gephardt and John Kerry appeared to be taking a safe political position in favor of the war. Of the leading candidates who favored the war, only Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman seemed to be expressing heartfelt convictions.

Why the Republicans should be very afraid

Thu, 31 Oct 2002 18:14:00 +0000

It's now clear that the GOP peaked too soon. After a period from late August through early October when the Iraq debate was dominating headlines and preventing Democrats from gaining traction on domestic issues, momentum has now switched back to the Democrats. They appear to be in a good position to hold and possibly increase their margin in the Senate, and perhaps even take back the House, though Iraq and al-Qaida will probably protect the Republicans from losing Congress entirely. But the Democrats also stand to make substantial gains in the nation's governorships -- a little-noticed development that provides strong evidence of an unfolding political realignment.

Recent surveys illustrate how the terrain has shifted in the Democrats' favor. The Gallup poll, for example, finds a sharp increase in negative feelings about the economy and a widening lead for the Democrats in dealing with economic conditions. And almost all polls have the economy as the No. 1 voting issue in this election.

Burning Bush

Thu, 03 Feb 2000 10:00:00 +0000

The real winner in New Hampshire Tuesday was Vice President Al Gore. He is going to have to battle former Sen. Bill Bradley through the March 14 Super Tuesday primaries, but he should be able to wrap up the nomination by then without having seriously damaged himself politically. If Bradley couldn't win a non-union, all-white Northeastern state where independents can vote, he is going to have an impossible time in Southern states and in Northern states where union members and pro-Clinton minorities make up almost half of the primary electorate. So it's goodbye, Bradley.

And what about Gore's presumed opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush? Bush wanted to use some of his $70 million in campaign funds to start running general election ads in February. He wanted to be able to forget about Confederate flags, fetal tissue research and all the other bizarre obsessions of the Republican right, but after getting routed in New Hampshire, Bush will have to face Arizona Sen. John McCain and possibly also Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes through February and perhaps well into March. He should still win the nomination, but he will pay a price for victory.