Salon.com > Michael Howard

Five more years?

Wed, 25 May 2005 15:52:00 +0000

It could take at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies warned Tuesday. The think tank's report said that Iraq had become a valuable recruiting ground for al-Qaida, and Iraqi forces were nowhere near close to matching the insurgency.

John Chipman, IISS director, said that Iraqi security forces face a "huge task" and that the continuing ability of the insurgents to inflict mass casualties "must cast doubt on U.S. plans to redeploy American troops and eventually reduce their numbers."

Insurgents have killed 600 Iraqis since the new government was formed. The IISS report said: "Best estimates suggest that it will take up to five years to create anything close to an effective indigenous force able to impose and guarantee order across the country."

The report said that, on balance, U.S. policy over the past year had been effective in emboldening regional players in the Middle East and the Gulf to rally against rogue states. But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was "the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaida's point of view, [President] Bush's Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies."

Breeding ground for suicide bombers

Thu, 12 May 2005 14:50:00 +0000

The number of suicide attacks in Iraq has reached a record high, with more than 67 insurgents blowing themselves up in April alone. Figures from diplomatic and Iraqi security sources Wednesday show that of the 135 car bombings last month, which took hundreds of lives and inflicted thousands of injuries, more than half were suicide missions. The number of car bombings has doubled since March.

The level of suicide attacks has raised fears that American and Iraqi forces are losing the battle to prevent foreign fighters, prepared to die for the cause of defeating the U.S. occupation, from entering the country. Most suicide bombers are thought to come from outside Iraq, intelligence sources say, but they operate with local support. A Western diplomat said that for the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein, suicide bombers account for most of the daily car bomb attacks. "There is an apparent free flow of suicide bombers into Iraq," he said. A senior Iraqi official added: "Unless we can stop that flood, people will be afraid to gather in public together."

The warnings followed another series of blasts across the country Wednesday that killed at least 71 people and wounded more than 100.

Too violent for voting?

Mon, 15 Nov 2004 15:02:00 +0000

Iraq's deputy prime minister has indicated for the first time that the much-heralded elections due in January could be derailed by the country's violent insurgency. Barham Salih said the authorities were determined to hold the vote, but admitted they would have to assess the security situation nearer the time.

"Holding free and fair elections on time is an obligation that we have undertaken towards the Iraqi people," he said. But he added: "Nearer the time, the Iraqi government, the United Nations, the independent election commission and the National Assembly will have to engage in a real and hard-headed dialogue to assess the situation." It is the first time a senior figure in the interim government has acknowledged that the dire security situation in large parts of the country could affect the political process.

Sunday, as U.S. troops widened their control of the insurgent bastion of Fallujah, Marines found what appeared to be the mutilated body of a Western woman. Only two foreign women are being held by kidnappers: Margaret Hassan, 59, the British-Iraqi director of the charity Care International, and Teresa Borcz Khalifa, 54, a Polish woman who has lived in Iraq for many years. One officer said he was "80 percent sure" the body was a Western woman. It was found in the street, covered with a cloth soaked in blood.

Balancing the risks in holy Najaf

Fri, 20 Aug 2004 13:12:00 +0000

Ayad Allawi's ultimatum yesterday to the rebel Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr who is holed up with his fighters in the holy city of Najaf was notable for one thing: the lack of a deadline. Reporters who gathered for a news conference in Baghdad were expecting the prime minister to announce that the final military push to remove Mr Sadr from the Imam Ali shrine had begun. But while he made it clear that the time for negotiation was over, Mr Allawi positioned himself behind the peace plan that emerged from this week's national conference, which calls for Mr Sadr to vacate the holy shrine, disarm his militia and join the political process. "A solution is needed and soon and we want to use all peaceful means to preserve the holy shrine," he said.

It was an indication that the prime minister, who has been cultivating his image as a no-nonsense leader, is aware of the risks involved if he or the US forces make a false move in Najaf. If the plan to neutralise Mr Sadr works, Mr Allawi will then have only the insurgency in Sunni areas to worry about. If it fails, his government's aim of restoring security so that elections can be held will be little more than wishful thinking.

Words, not bullets

Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:06:00 +0000

A downpour had been expected in Baghdad, and it arrived right on cue.

The predictions had been for mortar bombs, of course, not rain, but the thud of shells exploding so close to Baghdad's convention center caused scarcely a blink among the delegates to the much-anticipated national conference gathered inside.

Some were asked to move away from the windows while it was explained that Saddam Hussein had built the center to withstand direct hits. The delegates knew what to expect and appeared neither shaken nor disturbed.

"I came here from Najaf so my voice could be heard," said one woman, a teacher. "Do you think I'm going to be silenced by a few mortar shells?"

She, like everyone else, had come from across Iraq yesterday, defying the parlous security situation. There were tribal sheikhs from Kirkuk, women's activists from Basra, businessmen from Fallujah and former peshmerga from Kurdistan. There were Muslims, Yezidis, Shabaks, Christians, Turkomen, Kurds and Arabs. There were teachers, judges, doctors and preachers.

It was the first time since the fall of Saddam that Iraq's disparate and often discordant voices could be heard in one place. And for those desperate to see some light at the end of the tunnel it was a long-awaited first step.

Ahmed Chalabi goes home

Thu, 12 Aug 2004 14:34:00 +0000

Ahmed Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress and a longtime opponent of Saddam Hussein, returned to Iraq yesterday, saying he was determined to clear his name of counterfeiting charges.

"He is back among his people and trying to get some rest before returning to his political duties -- trying to help the government and stop the violence," an INC official, Mithal al-Alusi, told the Associated Press.

Iraq's senior investigative judge issued an arrest warrant for Chalabi on counterfeiting charges last week. If convicted, the controversial politician, who in exile was a key ally of the U.S. in the run-up to the Iraq war, could face a lengthy jail sentence.

A warrant has been issued against his nephew, Salem Chalabi -- who heads the tribunal that will try Saddam -- for involvement in the murder of an official from the Ministry of Finance. Both men described the charges as ridiculous, saying they were politically motivated.

Ahmed Chalabi was at an economic conference in Iran when the warrant was issued. Salem Chalabi was in London. The two men said they would return to Iraq to fight the charges but wanted guarantees of their security.

Reestablishing the rule of law

Tue, 10 Aug 2004 12:41:00 +0000

The judge who issued arrest warrants against controversial Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi and his nephew Salem, the head of the tribunal that will try Saddam Hussein, yesterday denied the move was politically motivated and said he would pursue the extradition of the two men if they refused to return to Iraq.

Zuhair al-Maliky, the senior investigative judge at the central criminal court of Iraq, established by the U.S. occupation authorities, told the Guardian: "I am simply the judge who signed the documents. Anything that either of the two wanted men have to say should be said in court in Iraq, and if they don't come here we have our channels and we will contact Interpol."

He declined to reveal the nature of the evidence that had prompted the charges, but said: "This is nothing to do with politics. We are trying to introduce the rule of law and these men must be questioned, and if there is enough evidence they should go to trial."

Ahmed Chalabi, the founder of the Iraqi National Congress and a key U.S. ally in the run-up to the invasion, is accused of counterfeiting money.

More seriously, Salem Chalabi, a U.S.-educated lawyer who heads the Iraq special tribunal, is wanted for the murder of Haitham Fadhil, a senior official with the Ministry of Finance.