Salon.com > Michael T. Klare

Energy wars heat up

Thu, 10 May 2012 14:33:00 +0000

Conflict and intrigue over valuable energy supplies have been features of the international landscape for a long time. Major wars over oil have been fought every decade or so since World War I, and smaller engagements have erupted every few years; a flare-up or two in 2012, then, would be part of the normal scheme of things. Instead, what we are now seeing is a whole cluster of oil-related clashes stretching across the globe, involving a dozen or so countries, with more popping up all the time. Consider these flash-points as signals that we are entering an era of intensified conflict over energy.

From the Atlantic to the Pacific, Argentina to the Philippines, here are the six areas of conflict -- all tied to energy supplies -- that have made news in just the first few months of 2012:

The collapse of the old oil order

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 17:30:00 +0000

This piece originally appeared on TomDispatch.

Whatever the outcome of the protests, uprisings, and rebellions now sweeping the Middle East, one thing is guaranteed: the world of oil will be permanently transformed. Consider everything that's now happening as just the first tremor of an oilquake that will shake our world to its core.

For a century stretching back to the discovery of oil in southwestern Persia before World War I, Western powers have repeatedly intervened in the Middle East to ensure the survival of authoritarian governments devoted to producing petroleum. Without such interventions, the expansion of Western economies after World War II and the current affluence of industrialized societies would be inconceivable.

Here, however, is the news that should be on the front pages of newspapers everywhere: That old oil order is dying, and with its demise we will see the end of cheap and readily accessible petroleum -- forever.

Ending the Petroleum Age

Welcome to the year of living dangerously

Mon, 24 Jan 2011 17:35:00 +0000

This originally appeared on TomDispatch

Get ready for a rocky year. From now on, rising prices, powerful storms, severe droughts and floods, and other unexpected events are likely to play havoc with the fabric of global society, producing chaos and political unrest. Start with a simple fact: the prices of basic food staples are already approaching or exceeding their 2008 peaks, that year when deadly riots erupted in dozens of countries around the world.

It's not surprising then that food and energy experts are beginning to warn that 2011 could be the year of living dangerously -- and so could 2012, 2013, and on into the future. Add to the soaring cost of the grains that keep so many impoverished people alive a comparable rise in oil prices -- again nearing levels not seen since the peak months of 2008 -- and you can already hear the first rumblings about the tenuous economic recovery being in danger of imminent collapse. Think of those rising energy prices as adding further fuel to global discontent.

Who’s the superpower now?

Mon, 12 May 2008 10:00:00 +0000

Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world's other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.

Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel of crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation's economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower in the making.

That the fall of the Berlin Wall spelled the erasure of the Soviet Union's superpower status was obvious to international observers at the time. After all, the USSR visibly ceased to exercise dominion over an empire (and an associated military-industrial complex) encompassing nearly half of Europe and much of Central Asia. The relationship between rising oil prices and the obliteration of America's superpower status is, however, hardly as self-evident. So let's consider the connection.

Turn down that thermostat, permanently

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 10:38:00 +0000

Oil at $110 a barrel. Gasoline at $3.35 (or more) per gallon. Diesel fuel at $4 per gallon. Independent truckers forced off the road. Home heating oil rising to unconscionable price levels. Jet fuel so expensive that three low-cost airlines stopped flying in the past few weeks. This is just a taste of the latest energy news, signaling a profound change in how all of us, in this country and around the world, are going to live -- trends that, so far as anyone can predict, will only become more pronounced as energy supplies dwindle and the global struggle over their allocation intensifies.

Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant, making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. This expansion benefited the United States above all -- along with its "first-world" allies in Europe and the Pacific. Recently, however, a select group of former "third-world" countries -- China and India in particular -- have sought to participate in this energy bonanza by industrializing their economies and selling a wide range of goods to international markets. This, in turn, has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption -- a 47 percent rise in the past 20 years alone, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Our “black Monday” for oil

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 10:46:00 +0000

On Monday, March 3, the price of crude oil reached $103.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing the record set nearly 30 years ago during another moment of chaos in the Middle East. Will that new mark prove distinctive in the annals of world history or will it be forgotten as energy prices drop, just as they did following their April 1980 peak?

When oil costs are plotted over time, the 1980 oil crisis -- prompted by Ayatollah Khomeini's Iranian revolution -- stands out as a sharp spike on that price curve. Both before and after that moment, however, oil supplies proved largely sufficient to meet rising global demand, in part because the Saudis and other major producers were capable of compensating for declining Iranian production. They simply increased their output substantially, dumping a surplus of oil onto the global market. Aided by the development of new fields in Alaska and the North Sea, prices dropped precipitously and stayed low through the 1990s (except for a brief spike following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990).

Taking aim at the sleeping dragon

Wed, 19 Apr 2006 08:59:00 +0000

Slowly but surely, the grand strategy of the Bush administration is being revealed. It is not aimed primarily at the defeat of global terrorism, the incapacitation of rogue states, or the spread of democracy in the Middle East. These may dominate the rhetorical arena and be the focus of immediate concern, but they do not govern key decisions regarding the allocation of long-term military resources. The truly commanding objective -- the underlying basis for budgets and troop deployments -- is the containment of China. This objective governed White House planning during the administration's first seven months in office, only to be set aside by the perceived obligation to highlight anti-terrorism after 9/11; but now, despite Bush's preoccupation with Iraq and Iran, the White House is also reemphasizing its paramount focus on China, risking a new Asian arms race with potentially catastrophic consequences.

President Bush and his top aides entered the White House in early 2001 with a clear strategic objective: to resurrect the permanent-dominance doctrine spelled out in the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) for fiscal years 1994-1999, the first formal statement of U.S. strategic goals in the post-Soviet era. According to the initial official draft of this document, as leaked to the press in early 1992, the primary aim of U.S. strategy would be to bar the rise of any future competitor that might challenge America's overwhelming military superiority.

Oil: The real threat to national security

Mon, 04 Oct 2004 19:30:00 +0000

As the presidential campaign draws to a close, the two major candidates are sparring over many aspects of American foreign policy -- notably Iraq, the war on terrorism, and America's fraying ties with other major powers. But there is one critical topic that both are refusing to confront frankly: America's growing dependence on imported petroleum.

Rising oil dependency has many serious consequences for the United States. To begin with, it entails a mammoth transfer of national wealth to foreign oil producers: nearly $200 billion per year at current prices. These transfers represent the single largest contribution to our staggering balance-of-payments deficit and are steadily eroding the value of the dollar. Growing dependency also compels us to coddle foreign oil potentates like the royal family of Saudi Arabia -- some of whose members made lavish donations to Islamic charities linked to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida. Worst of all, our dependence renders us highly vulnerable to oil shocks caused by turmoil and conflict in the major producing areas abroad.

Washington’s oilpolitik

Thu, 18 Jul 2002 18:54:00 +0000

As is widely known, the Bush administration has initiated planning for an American invasion of Iraq. The U.S. assault is expected to occur early next year, and to entail the commitment of several hundred thousand U.S. combat troops. While strongly supported by top Republican leaders, and some prominent Democrats, these plans have been condemned by many of America's closest allies and, as a result, have provoked a certain amount of unease among senior U.S. military officials. Why, then, is the administration so determined to proceed with the planned invasion?

Several explanations have been advanced by Washington insiders to answer this question. The official view is that Saddam Hussein must be deposed before he can employ the weapons of mass destruction that he is thought to possess in some future clash with the United States or its allies. Some analysts also believe that the current White House leadership seeks to erase its lingering embarrassment over the first President Bush's failure to eliminate the dictator in 1991, at the end of the Persian Gulf War. These, and other such explanations all contain an important element of truth. But they also leave out one critical factor -- oil.

America’s identity crisis

Sat, 03 Nov 2001 15:49:00 +0000

The United States is fighting two wars at the present time: a small war aimed at the capture of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants; and a large war aimed at the consolidation of American power in the Middle East.

Although described as one and the same by Bush administration officials, these two wars are very different in both their methodology and their intended outcome. And while the two are being pursued with equal vigor, it is doubtful that victory can be achieved in both.

The first war, the campaign against Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaida terrorist network, is essentially an international police campaign. Its aim is to identify, locate and apprehend all of the individuals involved in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States and similar acts of violence elsewhere. To succeed, it requires painstaking investigative work by police and intelligence agencies around the world; in some cases, it may also require limited military action to capture suspected terrorists in their mountain or jungle hideouts. This war enjoys the overwhelming support of the international community.

How to defeat bin Laden

Thu, 13 Sep 2001 23:53:00 +0000

If, as appears increasingly likely, groups associated with terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden are found to be responsible for Tuesday's murderous attacks in New York and Washington, the United States would be fully justified in taking vigorous action to apprehend and punish him and to put his terror networks out of business. The question then becomes: What strategy will best accomplish this objective?

There are many in Washington and around the country who believe that the United States should declare war on bin Laden -- along with any governments that have given him assistance of one sort or another -- and employ the full weight of American military power to accomplish this purpose. Such action would undoubtedly help restore confidence in the power of the American nation, and provide a degree of satisfaction to those who crave retribution for Tuesday's horrific attacks. But we must also ask: Will it achieve the goal of eradicating bin Laden's networks and eliminating the terrorist threat to the United States? There are good reasons to suspect that it will not.