How Kerry could beat Bush

Tue, 03 Feb 2004 00:09:00 +0000

Let's face it: John Kerry isn't the Democrats' dream candidate. He's got a list of Senate votes and public statements as long as your arm (longer!) that the Republicans will use to typecast him as a stale, out-of-step Massachusetts liberal. And his campaigning style is, shall we say, not exactly electrifying.

But he is an improvement over Howard Dean in the electability department. And despite the problems mentioned above, he probably also has an electability advantage over John Edwards or Wes Clark (though this is less clear).

To radically simplify, a presidential candidate needs to impress voters in three ways: as a commander in chief and defender of national security; as a steward of the economy and a custodian of the domestic agenda; and as someone who can connect with voters as he campaigns for the nomination. In each of those areas, Kerry achieves threshold credibility -- that is, he's good enough to make most voters give him a closer look without saying, "No way can I vote for that guy."

Instead, voters (at least our typical primary voters) might say: Kerry as commander in chief? He seems plausible. Kerry on domestic issues? Well, pretty good. He seems to know what he's talking about. Kerry as campaigner? Not exciting, sure, but at least he's disciplined and doesn't say a lot of goofy stuff.

Why the Republicans should be very afraid

Thu, 31 Oct 2002 18:14:00 +0000

It's now clear that the GOP peaked too soon. After a period from late August through early October when the Iraq debate was dominating headlines and preventing Democrats from gaining traction on domestic issues, momentum has now switched back to the Democrats. They appear to be in a good position to hold and possibly increase their margin in the Senate, and perhaps even take back the House, though Iraq and al-Qaida will probably protect the Republicans from losing Congress entirely. But the Democrats also stand to make substantial gains in the nation's governorships -- a little-noticed development that provides strong evidence of an unfolding political realignment.

Recent surveys illustrate how the terrain has shifted in the Democrats' favor. The Gallup poll, for example, finds a sharp increase in negative feelings about the economy and a widening lead for the Democrats in dealing with economic conditions. And almost all polls have the economy as the No. 1 voting issue in this election.

Salon.com > Ruy Teixeira

How Kerry could beat Bush

Why the Republicans should be very afraid