Opponents of European integration are gleefully anticipating the E.U.'s imminent collapse. Optimists suggest a stronger Europe could emerge. The truth about what happens next probably lies somewhere in between. The E.U. has suffered an unprecedented blow, reflecting a massive miscalculation at the top. But as Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, noted this week, Europe has faced big problems before -- and has usually overcome them.

That might sound a tad complacent. But the drama of the moment can be exaggerated, too, officials suggested. "In France and elsewhere, there was a big debate that reached far beyond the political classes. This is very welcome," a senior European diplomat said Wednesday. "The referendums showed Europe is important to ordinary people. In France the turnout was 70 percent. That's enormous. Of course, there are domestic factors. But for too long political leaders have been saying Europe is important but not asking the people what they think, doing it without them. Now the voters have said we want to be listened to.

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President Bashar al-Assad may have mixed feelings about helping the U.S. secure Iraq's borders and impede Islamist insurgents after an invasion that he fiercely opposed. It is unlikely that the Beirut street protests occasioned by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri could by themselves have forced his hand. The leaving of Lebanon has potentially profound (and unwelcome) domestic implications, as the Baath Party congress expected in the next month may demonstrate. But the alternatives for Assad were all worse: increasing ostracism, tightening financial and trade sanctions, U.N. censure -- and ultimately, the tacit threat of externally enforced regime change.

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Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president who has been a thorn in Moscow's side since Tbilisi's 2003 "rose revolution," said the group would "not act as a counterbalance or a reproach to anyone." But then he offered a reproach anyway. Friendship based on independence and freedom, he said, was very different from belonging to "an alliance like the Warsaw Pact or an empire like the Soviet Union."

The timing was probably not coincidental. Along with a host of world leaders, U.S. President George W. Bush will be in Moscow on May 9 to mark the 60th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat. Bush, who backed Ukraine's pro-democracy "orange revolution" last year, will also visit Georgia, where the U.S. launched a $50 million military training program over the weekend and where it has become Saakashvili's principal ally.

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Japan's pacifist postwar Constitution restricts its armed forces to self-defense. About 50,000 U.S. troops in Okinawa and other bases guarantee the country's security in return for a $5 billion Japanese cash contribution. But defense analysts say the perceived Chinese threat, a more assertive, nationalistic Japanese mindset, and Washington's wish to use Japan as a command post for operations extending to the Middle East are transforming Japan's formerly semidetached defense posture. After 60 years largely spent keeping its head down, Japan appears destined to supplant Australia as Washington's "deputy sheriff" in the Asia-Pacific region and become a pillar of America's 21st century security architecture.

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But nearly two months later all this huffing and puffing has had almost no effect. Nepalis are still trapped between military-backed absolutist monarchal rule and a Maoist-inspired insurgency, and the unrest is intensifying. Analysts say turmoil in the Himalayan kingdom has the potential to destabilize the region, drawing in India, China and Pakistan.

Kate Allen, U.K. director of Amnesty International, said after visiting Kathmandu last week that the human rights situation was extremely worrying. The judiciary is barely functioning and journalists are being jailed or harassed. "What really struck me was how seriously personally afraid everyone was," she said. "It's all about intimidation and control. It's nasty and it's probably going to get much nastier. But it's absolutely clear that people don't want to give up on democracy."

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But the European Union "troika" of Britain, France and Germany and the Bush administration do not believe them. Brandishing evidence of past concealment gathered by U.N. inspectors, they suspect that Iran is seeking weapons-grade uranium to build atomic bombs.

The talks are highly technical in nature. Yet the basic problem underlying complex disputes about yellowcake and centrifuges is more easily understood. It boils down to an abiding, mutual lack of trust. Unless somebody gives ground soon, the Paris talks between the E.U. and Iran could mark a parting of the ways.

"The U.S. is using the nuclear issue as a pretext for regime change," a senior Iranian official said this week. "The issue is a diversion. The U.S. wants to weaken Iran. Even if the nuclear issue was solved, they would want another thing and another thing."

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Kasparov's assertion that the country "is heading down the wrong path" echoed the words of a more formidable political figure, Mikhail Kasyanov, prime minister during Putin's first term and finance minister under Boris Yeltsin.

Accusing Russia's leader of abandoning democratic values by stifling political pluralism, undermining judicial and media independence, and turning his back on a free-market economy, Kasyanov called on the democratic opposition to unite. "I have reached the view that not one of these values is being implemented or respected," he said last month. "The direction has changed ... The country is on the wrong track."

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Republican attacks on President Fidel Castro's Communist government intensified during last year's American election campaign. Treasury Secretary John Snow tightened the 42-year-old U.S. embargo and vowed to "bring an end to the ruthless and brutal dictatorship." But George W. Bush's victory has not eased the pressure -- rather the reverse. A Republican-led congressional committee gave a platform to Cuban dissidents last week to publicize Cuba's "atrocious" behavior. Porter Goss, the CIA chief, recently described Cuba (and Venezuela) as a source of regional instability.

New U.S. rules, effective this month, will create more obstacles to American food sales to Cuba, affecting staples such as rice, wheat, soybeans and dried milk, in addition to the tougher curbs on commerce, visas and travel.

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Hinnawy's stand became a national talking point in a country where, in theory, premarital sex is banned. Even the grand mufti intervened. But equally surprising, from some points of view, was the support the 27-year-old received for her challenge to what she deemed the hypocrisy of a male-dominated society.

The response to the scandal is said to be indicative of how Egypt is changing. Fishawy's pious chat show has been canceled. And last week, in a precedent-setting ruling, a judge ordered him to undergo a DNA test. An expectant nation awaits the result.

Taboo breaking in Egypt appears to be catching on at the very top. On Feb. 26, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president since 1981, amazed his compatriots by proposing a multiparty presidential election for the first time in Egyptian history. Until now Mubarak and his predecessors have been endorsed, not elected, in single-candidate referendums. "I took the reins of this initiative in order to start a new era of reform," Mubarak said. "The president will be elected through direct, secret balloting, opening the opportunity for political parties to run." He was convinced, he said, "of the need to consolidate efforts for more freedom and democracy."

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These are just a few of the findings contained in a United Nations Development Program report on Afghanistan published this week. More than three years after the Unites States and Britain declared victory in Kabul and promised to rebuild the country, it paints a disturbing portrait of "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Not all is gloom. The report says Afghanistan's economy has expanded significantly since 2001. Nearly 55 percent of primary-age children are now in school.

About 2.4 million refugees have returned from Pakistan and Iran. The new Constitution guarantees equal rights for women. And a democratically elected president holds office, although "factional elements" with their own militias still control much of the country.

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With domestic pressure increasing on Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ministers have hinted at renewed military intervention. This is causing additional strains in Ankara's relations with the United States. Turkish concerns focus on the area around multiethnic Kirkuk, where the Brotherhood slate allied to the Kurdish Alliance of Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani won 59 percent of the provincial council vote. The Turkoman Front, representing a minority that Ankara has vowed to protect, took 18 percent.

Turkey ruled Kirkuk until 1923, and nationalists still regard it as Turkish territory. Erdogan has warned that Turkey will not stand by if Kurds try to realize their objective of including Kirkuk in the Kurdish autonomous region. He complained last month that tens of thousands of Kurds had moved into the area since the war. Many want to reclaim land and property lost to the forcible "Arabization" policy pursued by Saddam Hussein.

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Earlier this month, state radio said that Kim, far from being overthrown, was planning to extend the family dynasty begun by his father. "He stressed that if he falls short of completing the revolution it will be continued by his son and grandson," the radio quoted Kim as saying.

None of this may matter in any case. Many countries have a president for life. But Kim Il Sung, North Korea's "Great Leader" and Communist founder, who died in 1994, is officially president forever. On this basis, his Elvis-suited son could also prove immortal.

North Korea's statement Thursday that it possesses nuclear weapons and will not resume disarmament talks emanates from this same mysterious palace of smoke and mirrors. Pyongyang has previously claimed to have atomic weapons capability. It said Thursday that it still wanted the six-party negotiations to succeed and remained committed to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. The significance of its démarche lay in the wording. What was needed now, the statement said, was "justification for us to attend the talks" with an expectation of "positive results."

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In a few breathless days, Condoleezza Rice became the Bette Davis of diplomacy. If this was a charm offensive, or what one official called a "hug campaign," it worked a treat. After a long, trying estrangement, Europe felt loved again. And as the curtain came down on the new U.S. secretary of state's overseas debut, the temptation was to say that finally the Iraq schism was bridged and a new chapter in U.S.-European relations had begun.

This may possibly even be true. "It's all about mood music and the mood music has definitely changed," said Denis MacShane, Britain's minister for Europe. France and other European critics would gladly seize the opportunity of a fresh start proffered by Rice, he predicted. "Everybody's stretching out to Paris hoping for a new era of diplomacy."

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Despite the violence and signs of cold feet in the interim administration led by Ayad Allawi, the polls will go ahead on January 30. The U.S. knows Iraq's Shia majority parties, which expect to emerge victorious, will brook no further delay.

But the elections are also likely to be deeply flawed in terms of security, participation and transparency. The U.N. has relatively few staff in place. Iraqi poll organizers are quitting due to intimidation.

Even if they want to vote, many among the Sunni Arab minority may not dare, said Rime Allaf, a Middle East expert at Chatham House. "The elections will not produce a credible government," she predicted.

For hardline secular nationalists and Islamist terrorists alike, the polls are irrelevant. Their overriding aim is ending foreign military occupation. Violence will continue at least until that objective is achieved.

Belated understanding of this point explains the accelerating U.S. debate about exit strategies and the Pentagon's "open-ended" review of a security situation that is almost beyond redemption.

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A recent U.N. Security Council report makes it clear that the conflict in western Sudan, which has so far cost 70,000 lives, displaced 1.7 million people and left 2.2 million dependent on aid, is far from resolved and may soon grow more acute. "A build-up of arms and intensification of violence, including [government] air attacks, suggest the security situation is deteriorating," U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said last week. Swift international action is required, he said.

The attacks by government forces, their allied Janjaweed militia, rebel groups and splinter factions have increased since the peace talks in Abuja, Nigeria, were suspended without agreement. Civilians are routinely the target. Last year's cease-fire pact is repeatedly broken by both sides, according to the small and overstretched force of African Union monitors. U.N. relief officials estimate that 10,000 people are dying each month.

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Ordinary voters who put their faith in the democratic process will hold Abbas to these pledges. Many Palestinians feel they have already compromised enough. And even allowing for campaign hyperbole, Abbas' room for maneuver is limited. From the moment he takes office later this week, the heat will be on. Expectations are running dangerously high.

Anxious to exert influence and prioritize the issue, Britain will soon convene a conference to help the Palestinian Authority prepare for statehood. It is also working through the European Union. But much is at stake for British Prime Minister Tony Blair personally. He is one of those who argued that the road to Jerusalem ran through Baghdad. He has expended political capital, often in vain, on persuading the United States to pursue the "road map" for peace.

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U.S. resentment over what officials regard as lack of U.N. support for the Iraqi elections is barely contained. The issue topped the agenda in talks Thursday between Annan and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and his designated successor, Condoleezza Rice. The U.S. craves the legitimacy and expertise that only the U.N. can give the process. Because of security concerns, only 19 U.N. electoral staff are in Iraq, compared with 266 who oversaw Afghanistan's elections in October.

Annan ordered non-Iraqi U.N. personnel to leave last year after a bomb killed his senior envoy, Sergio Vieira de Mello, and destroyed the U.N.'s Baghdad headquarters. The U.S. and other Security Council members have since failed to provide a promised U.N. protection force. The U.N. is planning a limited expansion of advisory and technical operations beyond Baghdad before the Jan. 30 elections. But it believes staff remain at great risk, and insists the conduct and monitoring of the elections are the responsibility of Iraq's electoral commission.

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Many Romanians see Basescu's success as the long-awaited climax to a slow-burn revolution that began in Christmas 1989 when the detested pro-Soviet regime of Nicolae Ceausescu was toppled by a coup. Ceausescu was put up against a wall and shot. But Communist-era habits died harder. The old elite relabeled themselves Social Democrats (PSD) and became the government party for most of the past 15 years.

But as in Ukraine, which in theory gained its independence in 1991, a corrupt culture of party barons and millionaire oligarchs continued to dominate many aspects of Romanian life. "The former Communists still controlled all the levers of power -- the TV and media, industry and the economy, the security forces and the secret police," one analyst said Tuesday. "The regional czars under Ceausescu just switched sides."

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As foreign minister and vice-chancellor of Germany, Fischer is still exploring the path ahead. And in a speech before a packed audience of 1,000 in London this week, he showed again why he is one of Europe's most appealing politicians.

To a world beset by an unending "war on terror," insecurity and cultural strife, and lacking agreed political direction, Fischer offers a positive vision for the 21st century. His formula is both simple and seductive -- or, to his critics, naive. While others peddle fear, Fischer offers hope. Far from dwelling on the bitter schism between Germany and the Bush administration over Iraq, Fischer stresses the importance of the transatlantic relationship to both Europe and the U.S.

"There cannot be world order without the U.S. It is the only country that can project global power," he told a meeting hosted by the London School of Economics and the Center for European Reform. "But neither the U.S. nor Europe alone can defend against the totalitarian threat of terrorism. The West must ... find a way to create a strategic consensus."

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For the Northern Rivers Echo, a paper in Lismore, New South Wales, the big news this week was the location of a new sewage plant. This pungent controversy has left the efforts of the Labor leader, Mark Latham, to defeat the Liberal-National coalition government, led by Howard, in the shade.

Another top story concerned a forthcoming celebration of International Lesbian Day at the Italo Club. "Local identity Nora Vidler-Blanksby will MC," the Echo reported. "The night includes a smorgasbord meal and DJ."

The Alice Springs News was more exercised about the problem of petrol sniffing than who would be top dog in Canberra after Saturday's election. A Yuendumu community project at the Mount Theo outstation "has provided a healing environment for sniffers," a correspondent wrote.

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