Victorino Matus

Lost in New Jersey

Garden State Republicans are in disarray following Gov. Christine Todd Whitman's decision three months ago to abandon the race for an open Senate seat.

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When Colin Powell refused to run for president in 1996, he disappointed many Republicans, who had looked to him as their only hope to defeat Bill Clinton. Some Democrats felt the same way when Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska recently decided not to challenge Al Gore for the Democratic nomination. “Who do we turn to?” has been the oft-heard lament on both sides of the aisle.

But when it comes to hanging your fellow supporters out to dry, neither Powell nor Kerrey can hold a candle to Christie Todd Whitman.

In early September, the Republican governor of New Jersey announced that she would not seek the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Democrat Frank Lautenberg — a seat the Democrats have held since the 1950s.

Whitman explained that mounting a campaign would be “a distraction from finishing the work New Jersey voters had asked me to complete” and that “this is all about whether I can run for the United States Senate and at the same time fulfill my duties as governor.” In the end, Whitman decided that the answer was no.

Her supporters, meanwhile, were left speechless. Rumors soon spread through political and media circles about the true meaning of her decision to back out: Was she ill? Did her decision have anything to do with her husband, John Whitman? Was she making herself available to be a vice-presidential candidate, as in a Bush/Whitman ticket? There had to be an explanation for her withdrawal.

Well, it may be that she just didn’t want to run. Dave Neese, the editorial page editor at the Trentonian, said that “even when … it seemed very likely that Whitman would run, some of her closest advisors had already known for some time, just from the comments she’d make, that there was no way she would run for the Senate. But then she sets up that exploratory committee and everyone gets all excited, and suddenly she’s exploring her way out of it.”

Three months after Whitman’s announcement, it is now clear the governor truly dreaded running in a highly contested Senate race. According to Alvin Felzenberg of the Heritage Foundation, a veteran of New Jersey politics, “she just knew it was going to be a rough race. She knew she’d be facing opponents on all sides. There’s nothing to the other rumors of why she backed out.”

GOP political consultant Larry Weitzner agrees: “Whitman’s heart wasn’t into it and the rigors of raising money and doing all that work just to run possibly against a candidate with unlimited resources” didn’t seem too appealing.

True enough, New Jersey political races have never been pretty — especially for her. Although Whitman is a two-term governor, she won both her elections by razor-thin margins — roughly 25,000 votes each time. Editor Neese adds that “Whitman just did not look forward to a nasty bang-up Senate campaign, and after witnessing the Zimmer/Torricelli Senate race in 1996,” she knew this wasn’t something she wanted.

The winner of the 1996 race, Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli, admitted to the Bergen County Record that if you want to run, “you have to really want to be in the U.S. Senate, because you are going to pay a heavy price.”

For Whitman, it seems, this turned out to be a price not worth paying. But there’s another price of her decision: Many Republicans are angry with the governor for leaving them with no clear candidate in a race once found to be in their favor. A Quinnipiac College poll earlier this year showed Whitman leading by as much as 52 percent to 35 percent over former governor Jim Florio and leading ex-Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine by 56 percent to 22 percent.

The list of potential GOP nominees thus far includes Rep. Bob Franks, state Sen. Bill Gormley, former Libertarian candidate for governor Murray Sabrin and Essex County executive James Treffinger. If Whitman was scared by the mere thought of raising $17 million to win the election, imagine the challenge that these candidates with lesser name recognition face.

Meanwhile, the rumors flying about Len Coleman considering a run are still just rumors. This former president of Major League Baseball’s National League and African-American Republican could very well be the party’s last hope.

“Lots of Republicans are irked that Whitman took as long as she did” before backing out, says Neese.

Also, according to one New Jersey congressional source, “many of the candidates for the Republican nomination are mad at her because she’s created a fund-raising problem.” During the existence of her exploratory committee, Whitman raised more than $2 million from generous campaign contributions. Now, though some of the money has been returned, there is a general sense that these sources are tapped out as a slew of little-known candidates scramble to raise every last dime.

“Clearly we lost our best candidate,” says Weitzner, “and we would have had a better shot if Whitman was the one.”

Adding to the Republicans’ problems is the state’s proximity to one of the hottest races in the country. The New York Senate race pitting Mayor Rudy Giuliani against Hillary Rodham Clinton may even overshadow the presidential race. If so, the election next door will hardly register a blip on the media’s radar screen.

This lack of attention, lack of money (especially acute if the Democratic opponent is the self-financed multimillionaire Corzine) and lack of high-profile candidates will likely hinder chances for a Republican victory.

It isn’t often that a New Jersey Senate seat is left wide open — incumbents in the Garden State have an impressive reelection record. In fact, only two senators have been ousted while in office in about half a century. The last Republican senator to be elected in New Jersey was Clifford Case in 1972. Given the way next year’s race is shaping up, you’d have to say that Case may hold that distinction well into the next millennium.

Christie's secrets

Rumors continue to swirl around New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman's withdrawal from the Senate race, including hints of a future role with George W. Bush.

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It started with the haircut.

When New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman began making public appearances with a new, Janet Reno-esque coif three weeks ago, people started to wonder, “What’s wrong with her? Is she ill”?

Nobody in her administration would dare say anything on the record, lest they offend the most powerful woman in the state, but many acknowledged that the cut was a bit severe. “It’s functional. Her hair is not a priority,” said one campaign advisor, judiciously.

A congressional staffer tried to be more positive: “I like it! It’s like George Clooney.”

Last we checked, however, George Clooney was a man.

No sooner had Whitman unveiled her new look than she dropped her real bombshell: She was pulling out of the Senate race to replace senior Democrat
Frank Lautenberg, who is retiring at the end of his current term.

Whitman was widely regarded as the strong favorite to replace Lautenberg, and the Democrats had been scrambling to find a viable candidate to run against her. But all of a sudden, she was quitting.

Robert Arena of Presage Internet Campaigns, a consultant to the Whitman campaign, told Salon News, “She couldn’t give 110 percent. She couldn’t be the kind of candidate she wanted to be and the kind of governor she wanted to be at the same time. For her, being governor is the best job.”

Still, the news came as a shock to most people — even to some on her staff. When
reports of her dropping out began to leak before she made the official announcement, her office was flooded with phone calls from around the state and from Washington. While her campaigners stressed on the phone that “the governor is indeed busy running a campaign,” the people on the other end of the line began responding, “Actually, she isn’t.”

When the press wanted to delve even further, Whitman’s staff began elaborating on the problems of campaigning, especially the dreaded “F-word”: fund-raising. Even though Whitman had already amassed more than $2 million (which the campaign will most likely return to contributors), her fund-raising schedule had her traveling to dozens of out-of-state events, some as far away as Arizona.

At a time when most people find it difficult to take politicians at their
word, speculation about Whitman’s true motives was inevitable. According to Sherry Sylvester, the chief political writer for the Trentonian newspaper, the rumors run the gamut: “from illness to political scandals to scandals involving her financier husband, John Whitman, to marital difficulties stemming from an alleged fight in which John allegedly stated that she must run and she responded, ‘I don’t have to do anything!’”

While there is no direct evidence of ill health, the rumors that Whitman might be sick are associated both with the bad haircut and a recent trip she took to Nova Scotia on which no photo ops were allowed. One campaign source suggested to Salon News, however, that “she could just as easily have been meeting with George W. Bush, discussing a possible Bush-Whitman ticket” while she was out of sight.

There also has been talk in political circles about her getting a cabinet post in a Bush White House, but according to sources close to Whitman, the more likely scenario involves her seeking the vice presidency — despite her pro-choice position and other political stands that have not played well with the GOP’s conservative base.

According to one campaign official, since it now appears likely that Pat Buchanan will run as a pro-life third party candidate, draining away conservative votes from the GOP, the main challenge to Bush will be to capture the swing vote, the Reagan Democrats. If so, the ideal candidate for this effort would be someone like Whitman or New York Gov. George Pataki.

Whatever her motives for quitting the Senate race, Whitman appeared upbeat after her announcement, and began appearing on all the political talk shows — indicating that she does not exactly consider this an exit from the political arena.

Whitman’s national aspirations may hit a few roadblocks, however. For one thing, there is a disparity between Whitman’s immense national popularity and her somewhat tempered reputation in her own state. New Jersey residents are more concerned about the state’s soaring property taxes — and her move to fund state pensions by floating a $2.9 billion bond — than with any fantasies she may have about becoming the first female vice president.

And the general consensus among journalists following her candidacy is that, when all is said and done, Christine Todd Whitman is just plain tired.

While her upscale upbringing was far from a struggle, and she hails from a political family, Whitman’s electoral experiences have been anything but comfortable. Her first statewide election was a 1990 attempt to unseat then-Sen. Bill Bradley, and she lost.

At the time, Democratic Gov. James Florio was facing a huge backlash from voters after having embarked on a $2.8 billion state tax hike — the largest in American history. Florio’s tax package proved disastrous to the state’s economy, ruining the boating industry, among others. New Jerseyans were fuming, and took the opportunity to take out their ire on Bradley, whom Whitman charged had not done enough to stop his fellow Democrat Florio from raising the taxes.

Nevertheless, Bradley beat Whitman, 50-47 percent.

Whitman next focused her sights on the governor’s office, and launched a bitter campaign against Florio two years later.

But Whitman was not a natural campaigner, and despite Florio’s high negative ratings, she barely squeaked into office, by 49-48 percent.

In 1996, her re-election run was yet another reminder of her weaknesses on the campaign trail. Running as an incumbent, Whitman faced a serious challenge from
little-known Jim McGreevey, a mayor from Woodbridge. The governor barely survived, winning 47-46 percent.

With an electoral record like this (it’s what some of her campaign workers cynically term “the Whitman landslide”), Whitman had to harbor some concerns about running for the Senate.

And there was still the fund-raising question: Did she really want to go from place to place raising an estimated $17 million, in increments no greater than $1,000? Probably not.

Whatever her motives, Whitman has made one group happy by exiting the race. From underdog to mighty dog, the Democrats now think they can keep the Lautenberg seat in the party, with either Florio or former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine emerging as their likely candidate. Meanwhile it is the Republicans who now have to scramble to field a viable contender.

All of which may signal the end of Whitman’s political career in her home state once her current term expires — unless, of course, it turns out that all that speculation about a Bush connection is true, after all.

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