In the polls


Stephen W. Stromberg
July 2, 2004 11:23PM (UTC)

Michigan may have 10 fewer electoral votes than Florida, but it's still a must-win for John Kerry. So the Kerry campaign has to like a new SurveyUSA poll showing Kerry leading Bush there 51 to 41 percent. The folks at SurveyUSA think that native son Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" might have something to do with the Kerry bounce in the state.

Out West, the race in Washington State is tied according to the latest Moore Information poll. Bush and Kerry both got 43 percent, while 4 percent of respondents chose Nader and 10 percent remained undecided. Finally, on the East Coast, Kerry's lead in Maine has shrunk dramatically, according to a Strategic Marketing Services survey.

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The University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey also has an interesting report out on marital status and voting behavior. From today's press release: "The marriage gap is bigger than the gender gap on a wide range of political issues, from opinions of George W. Bush and John Kerry to party allegiance or a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows."

"While the gender gap, or the political differences between men and women, has intrigued politicians and women's organizations since the early 1980s, the greater differences between married and single people, though first noted at about the same time, have received less attention. But this survey shows that the differences between married men and married women are either slight or statistically insignificant. In contrast, people who do not live with a spouse are considerably more liberal and critical of Bush than are married Americans."

"For example, polling of 1,641 adults conducted from June 16 through June 30 showed that 54 percent of respondents either married or living as married approved of how President Bush was handling his job, while 41 percent disapproved. Among those never married, widowed, divorced or separated, 42 percent approved and 56 percent disapproved. The differences between men and women were much smaller. Men divided evenly, with 48 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving; unusually, women were slightly positive, with 51 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving."

"Fifty-five percent of married women approved, as did 53 percent of married men. Just 43 percent of single women and 41 percent of single men did so."


Stephen W. Stromberg

Stephen W. Stromberg is a former editorial fellow at Salon.

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