In the polls

By Jeff Horwitz
Published October 13, 2004 3:57PM (EDT)

As President Bush and Sen. Kerry prepare for tonights debate, Rasmussen gives Bush a 48-46 lead among likely voters, and Zogbys tracking poll produces the same deadlock it did yesterday, 45-45.

Gallup doesnt release any new horse race numbers today, but publishes a statistical pre-debate analysis. One prominent conclusion is that Bushs performance in the first two debates hasnt left voters expecting too much for the third: Kerry is expected to win by a 54-36 margin.

Gallup also concludes that the debates focus on economic and domestic policy places Kerry on his home turf. Kerry holds significant leads on education (+7), the economy (+4), Social Security (+9), abortion (+4), the deficit (+13), the environment (+29), and healthcare (+9). The only domestic issues that Gallups respondents trusted Bush to handle better than his opponent were taxes and terrorism.

Jeff Horwitz

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