Those of you addicted to election polls are used to this by now, but … the new national numbers out this weekend on the presidential race are not of one mind, so bear with us here:
A Newsweek poll released today calls the presidential election a 46-46 tie among registered voters nationwide, eliminating the 5-point lead the magazine’s survey handed Bush last week. But Bush still leads among likely voters 48-46.
That likely voter number is puzzling, however, in light of the following statistic: with only 10 days to go, Newsweek reports that a full 77 percent of Kerry supporters say Nov. 2 will be “the most important election of their lifetime.” That’s a statement only 27 percent of Bush supporters are willing to make, and (one would expect) a promising sign for a strong Democratic voter turnout.
Newsweek also reports that the President’s approval ratings are in serious trouble: only 46 percent of Americans had a favorable impression of his job performance, and only 40 percent are satisfied with the countrys direction.
America’s other major newsweekly, Time Magazine, comes to a different conclusion. Declaring “Bush opens 5-point lead against Kerry,” it reports that the president leads 51-46 among likely voters, and by a blowout-worthy seven points among registered voters. And in absolute contradiction to Newsweek’s poll, Time concludes that Bush has gained 4-points since last week, and that his approval rating is now at a comfortable 53 percent.
Two other national polls continue to show a tight race, but still give Bush a slight lead. Zogby’s tracking poll of likely voters calls it 47-45 for Bush for the second day in a row, and Rasmussen gives BC ’04 a 48-47 advantage.
In state polls, Ohio University’s Scripps Survey Research Center gives Kerry a solid lead in the Buckeye State. Among registered voters, hes up 49-43, among likely voters, he’s up 50-46. The Democratic ticket receives 94 percent of the support of self-described “strong Democrats,’ and a full quarter of the support of self described political conservatives.
In Florida, the polling firm Insider Advantage calls the race a tie at 46 percent, Kerry’s best showing in nearly a week.
Three state polls put Kerry down in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — states with a combined 27 electoral votes. While two of those polls were conducted by Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm, the results aren’t totally out of line with how other pollsters see the race. Strategic Vision puts Bush up 49-46 in Wisconsin, and 48-47 in Iowa. In Minnesota, Rasmussen gives Bush a 2-point lead, 48-46.
Finally, a new poll by the Honolulu Advertiser bizarrely shows the race a tie in Hawaii at 43 percent. The state has four electoral votes, and until today, wasn’t considered to be remotely in play for the Republicans.
