In the polls

By Jeff Horwitz
Published October 27, 2004 4:31PM (EDT)

A new Harris survey written up in The Wall Street Journal (free link) shows John Kerry has taken the lead nationally: He's up 48-47 among likely voters, with Ralph Nader and "other" each receiving 1 percent of the vote. The poll's large sample size gives it a low margin of error -- less than 2 percent.

In tracking polls, Zogby calls the race 48-47 for Bush, and Rasmussen finds the president leads 49-47. TIPP gives Bush a 4-point lead, 48-44.

State polls look better for Kerry than they did yesterday. The Democratic ticket leads in two of four Florida surveys (Survey USA and ARG), and in a Rasmussen poll, he's tied with Bush. Zogby's the only pollster willing to give Bush the advantage in Florida today, which he does by a 49-45 margin.

In Ohio, the results are a very similar 2-2 split. Survey USA and ARG again put Kerry up by 2-3 points, and likewise, Zogby puts him down by 2. Rasmussen's survey also gives Bush the lead, this time by 4.

Zogby isn't all bad news for Kerry, though. Zogby polls show Wisconsin swinging back into the Democratic column, 48-46, and suggests that Kerry's standing in Iowa has improved to a 45-45 deadlock. Gallup disagrees, however, calling the race 50-46 among likely voters, despite giving Kerry a 48-47 lead among all voters.

Zogby also finds that Kerry leads in Minnesota for the third straight day, up 48-47.

Finally, a new Quninnipiac survey refuses to let New Jersey stay in the Democratic column. The poll finds that, in just a week, Bush has closed a 4-point gap in the Garden State to make the race a dead heat, 46-46. A 30 percent plurality of those polled said terrorism was their greatest concern, and even a full quarter of Democrats thought the president would do a better job fighting it. Bush campaigned in New Jersey a little over a week ago, and results like these might bring him back -- and force the Kerry-Edwards team to visit, too.

Jeff Horwitz

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