In the polls


Jeff Horwitz
October 28, 2004 9:10PM (UTC)

In national surveys, the only new horse-race numbers out today are the trackers. Three polls give an edge to Bush, and one to Kerry. TIPP says Bush is ahead 46-43, Zogby has Bush up 48-46, and Rasmussen calls it for Bush, 49-47. The Washington Post's numbers, released late yesterday, show a 1-point Kerry lead.

In state polls, today's Florida numbers are far less kind to the Kerry camp than yesterday's. Zogby's latest Florida tracking poll shows Bush in the lead, 48-46, and Quinnipiac gives Bush a 49-46 advantage. Two other major polls indicate the race is all but over in the critical swing state, giving Bush a nearly double-digit lead: The LA Times has Bush up by 8 points, and Gallup has him by 9.

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Today's Ohio numbers are a good deal more Kerry-friendly. Gallup has the Dems up, 50-47, and the LA Times puts Kerry-Edwards ahead by a whopping 50-44 among likely voters. Zogby shows a small Kerry lead as well, 46-45. Rasmussen is the only polling firm to show Ohio tipping the other way, giving the president a 4-point lead.

In Pennsylvania: The only polling firm to give Kerry a lead was Gallup, which put the Democrats up 49-46. Quinnipiac University's new survey concluded that Bush now leads 49-47, but that goes against every poll released in the last ten days -- even the ones by Republican polling firms. Still, the university's findings aren't far off from the 48-48 deadlock shown by the LA Times.

In Iowa, Gallup says Kerry is trailing by 4 percent among likely voters, but edging Bush 48-47 among registered voters. Zogby calls the race a tie, 45-45.

Surprisingly, Zogby also now declares a tie in Michigan. Both candidates are evenly matched at 47, erasing a long-standing Kerry lead. But before writing off this result as a fluke, War Room took a look at Bush's campaign schedule: From 10/27 to 10/30, the president has three visits planned to Michigan -- as many as he does to Ohio. Evidently, BC '04 thinks they've got a strong shot in the state.

Finally, another polling firm concurs with Quinnipiac's assertion yesterday that New Jersey is a real race. A Research 2000 poll gives Kerry the lead in the state today -- but by just a 45-44 margin.


Jeff Horwitz

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