In the polls


Katharine Mieszkowski
October 30, 2004 10:10PM (UTC)

A Newsweek poll out today has Bush opening up a small lead over Kerry among likely voters, 50 to 44 percent, with Nader squeaking out 1 percent. Keeping in mind that the poll's margin of error is 4 points, the race essentially remains a statistical dead heat. Still, the poll, conducted over three days, from Oct. 27 to 29, showed a wider margin between the candidates than the same poll conducted a week earlier, which found 48 percent for Bush, 46 for Kerry, and Nader hanging in at 1 percent.

Among registered voters, Newsweek finds the race is even tighter, with Bush polling at 48 percent, Kerry at 44 percent and Nader still at 1 percent.

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And, yes, there are still people out there who tell Newsweek's pollsters that they do not yet know for whom they'll punch the ballot, pull the lever or connect the arrows on Election Day. Nine percent of registered voters and 6 percent of likely voters surveyed say they're still weighing the choices.

[UPDATE:]

But Kerry supporters shouldn't allow one bad poll to discourage them: tracking polls released on Saturday put the race much closer, such as the Reuters/Zogby poll, which has Kerry moving into the lead for the first time all week, as well as the TIPP poll, which has shown Bush's percentage of the popular vote decline all week.


Katharine Mieszkowski

Katharine Mieszkowski is a senior writer for Salon.

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