With only 48 hours to go and Bush unable to crack 48 in the national polls, all eyes are shifting to the latest battleground state polls. (There are 54 new polls in 22 states today, in case you were wondering.) The obsessively clicked-on Electoral-Vote.com now gives Kerry the lead, with 283 electoral votes to Bush's 246. But the site cautions that many of Kerry's state leads are "razor thin." Still, the trends can't be encouraging for Karl Rove and Co. New polls are now giving Iowa, Michigan, and New Mexico to Kerry, and New Jersey, which seemed weirdly up for grabs days ago, has now returned safely to the Kerry fold.
EV.com notes that "Kerry is in a far better position than Gore was at this point in 2000. Not only is he not trailing by 4 percent, he is actually slightly ahead. On the other hand, there are few undecideds left because they have already broken for the challenger, as they usually do."
Another worrying sign for the Bush camp: The Los Angeles Times reports that Bush's evangelical base is not as solid as it was in 2000. "Like other Americans, they are also concerned about health care, jobs and other issues. That's probably why last week Bush said it was OK with him if the states allow civil unions. In other words, forget the evangelicals and concentrate on the soccer moms in the Midwest who are fairly tolerant of civil unions. Well, that's politics for you."