In the polls


Jeff Horwitz
October 31, 2004 11:52PM (UTC)

National tracking polls released today show yet another tied race.

TIPP -- Bush 46, Kerry 44.

Zogby -- Bush 48, Kerry 48

Washington Post -- Bush 48, Kerry 48

Fox -- Bush 45, Kerry 47

Rasmussen -- Bush 48, Kerry 47.

In state polls, the Columbus Dispatch calls the race in Ohio not just a tie, but a 50-50 deadlock. It's the "the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll," the paper writes. Zogbys tracking poll doesn't agree, showing Bush up 49-46, a little strange considering that only two days back, Zogby had Kerry in the lead 47-44.

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In Iowa, a Des Moines Register poll gives Kerry a 3-point lead, 48-45. In an interesting twist, the poll found that Bush leads Kerry among those under 44 years old by a 13-point margin, but that the president is getting slaughtered by the AARP vote: Iowans above 65 favor Kerry 54-38.

In New Hampshire, an American Research Group survey calls the race a 47-47 tie, making it the first polling firm not to give Kerry a lead in two weeks. A Research 2000 poll puts Kerry in the lead, however, 49-46.

In Nevada, Survey USA shows a 49-49 tie, a better result for Kerry than any he's had in any survey in the state in more than three weeks.

And finally, while two reputable polling firms recently declared the New Jersey race a dead heat, there's no sign of it a few days later. Today, an Eagleton-Rutgers survey put Kerry up 48-44 in the Garden state. On Friday, a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll gave Kerry a 7-point advantage, and yesterday Survey USA showed the Democrat ahead by 12. That's certainly worse than the Democrats did in 2000, but if New Jersey is Kerry's greatest foible, it's probably not going to be a very suspenseful election night.


Jeff Horwitz

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