The latest battleground numbers


Jeff Horwitz
November 1, 2004 11:36PM (UTC)

The latest polls from the key states continue a theme of incoherence.

Gallup's numbers suggest Kerry is up in Florida by 4, Ohio by 7, and Minnesota by 8, and now Bush suddenly leads in Pennsylvania by 4, and in Wisconsin by 8. Gallup has him up in Iowa by 2.

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Equally strange is Quinnipiac's new Florida poll, which puts Bush ahead by 8. That's 8 points better than in Quinnipiac's last poll, which called the race a tie just four days ago, on October 28. Quinnipiac also released new Pennsylvania numbers, showing the race dead even at 47, with 6 percent undecided.

Zogby's battleground tracking polls are more friendly to the Dems -- and a little more consistent with recent polls. In Pennsylvania, Kerry is up 50-45. In Wisconsin, Bush is getting trounced by a margin of 51-44, and in Michigan, 52-45. In Minnesota, Kerry leads 49-47, and in Iowa, Kerry is ahead 50-44. Zogby calls the race tied at 49 in New Mexico, while giving Bush solid leads of 4 points in Ohio and 6 in Nevada.

Were all of Zogby's numbers to prove accurate on election day, that would mean that the race would come down to -- you guessed it -- Florida. Zogby gives Kerry a slight 48-47 lead in the state.

Finally, New Jersey still does not qualify for a battleground state. Eagleton-Rutgers, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen all have released polls in the last 24 hours that put Kerry ahead by 4, 5 and 12 respectively.


Jeff Horwitz

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