Kerry opens big lead among early voters

The latest national numbers, courtesy of Josh Marshall:

The second national poll released Monday, the Marist poll, has Kerry up by one among likely voters (Kerry 49 percent, Bush 48 percent) and tied among registered voters (48 percent). All calls were made on Sunday.

The final Fox News poll -- with calls on Saturday and Sunday only -- has Kerry over Bush 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters it's Kerry 47 percent, Bush 45 percent. Among those who've already voted, it's Kerry 48 percent, Bush 43 percent. Fox has been releasing not a tracking poll, but a new poll every day for the last four days: Friday, Bush +5; Saturday Bush +2; Sunday, tied; Monday, Kerry +2.

According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening, 30 percent of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted, Kerry leads President Bush 51 percent to 43 percent. According to the Des Moines Register poll out late Saturday evening, 27 percent of Iowa adults have already voted. And among those Kerry leads 52 percent to 41 percent.