Multistate analysis: Democrats poised to take the House in November

Current polling shows Democrats ahead in 224 races, Republicans leading in just 205.

Published October 12, 2006 7:22PM (EDT)

Tsunami alert? We don't put too much faith in either weather forecasts or political polls offered a month ahead of time, but MyDD has news of a new Majority Watch analysis from Constituent Dynamics. Its conclusion, based on polls from 48 competitive congressional districts: Democratic candidates are currently leading in 224 districts, with Republicans ahead in 205. Six districts are tied.

If these numbers hold up -- and to be clear, the margins are very thin in some of these districts -- it won't really matter what Kirk Fordham is telling the House Ethics Committee today: NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds will be out of Congress (he's suddenly trailing by 16 points now, the poll says), and a new Democratic majority isn't exactly likely to choose Dennis Hastert as it speaker.

By Tim Grieve

Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog.

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