Tsunami alert? We don't put too much faith in either weather forecasts or political polls offered a month ahead of time, but MyDD has news of a new Majority Watch analysis from Constituent Dynamics. Its conclusion, based on polls from 48 competitive congressional districts: Democratic candidates are currently leading in 224 districts, with Republicans ahead in 205. Six districts are tied.
If these numbers hold up -- and to be clear, the margins are very thin in some of these districts -- it won't really matter what Kirk Fordham is telling the House Ethics Committee today: NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds will be out of Congress (he's suddenly trailing by 16 points now, the poll says), and a new Democratic majority isn't exactly likely to choose Dennis Hastert as it speaker.
Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog.