The Weekly Standard sees doom ahead

The conservative magazine comes through with its election predictions -- and they're not pretty.

Alex Koppelman
November 5, 2006 1:39AM (UTC)

There is no joy in Mudville.

The conservative Weekly Standard came out with its staff's election predictions last night, and we imagine there must have been quite a bit of weeping and gnashing of teeth as the results were tallied: Of the 17 staffers polled, only one, Andrew Ferguson, thinks the GOP will hold the House on Tuesday. Five of the 17 think the Democrats will take back the Senate. (One of those, Matthew Continetti, makes a "dark horse" prediction that after the election, Joe Lieberman will replace Donald Rumsfeld, dividing the Senate equally and ultimately giving power to the Republicans, who hold the tie-breaking vote in the vice president.)


Most interesting, perhaps, are the predictions of Bill Kristol, the Standard's editor. Kristol isn't renowned for his predictive powers -- in 2003, he told NPR that "there's been a certain amount of pop sociology in America ... that the Shia can't get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There's almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq's always been very secular" -- but he does have deep connections to the administration, and to its thinking.

And what does Kristol see? An overwhelming victory for the Dems: a 42-seat pickup in the House and control of the Senate, with a seven-seat shift there.

Alex Koppelman

Alex Koppelman is a staff writer for Salon.

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