Republican pollster Frank Luntz has deemed Kentucky and Indiana the GOP's "canary in the coalmine," saying that if three or more seats there swing to the Democrats, "you know the Democrats are taking control of the House."
The first results are now coming in:
Kentucky, 2nd District: With a handful of precincts counted, Republican incumbent Ron Lewis is leading Democratic challenger Mike Weaver by about six percentage points.
Kentucky, 3rd District: With 64 percent of the precincts counted, Democratic challenger John Yarmuth leads Republican incumbent Anne Northup by one percentage point.
Kentucky, 4th District: With just a handful of the precincts counted, Republican incumbent Geoff Davis holds a 17-point lead over Democratic challenger Ken Lucas.
Indiana, 2nd District: With 5 percent of the precincts reporting, Republican incumbent Chris Chocola is effectively tied with Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly.
Indiana, 3rd District: With 3 percent of the precincts reporting, Republican Rep. Mark Souder is leading Democratic challenger Thomas Hayhurst by about three percentage points.
Indiana, 8th District: With 13 percent of the precincts counted, Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth has a 70-30 lead over Republican incumbent John Hostettler.
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