The Huckabee surge

He's gaining ground fast on Romney in Iowa, but will it be enough?

By Tim Grieve
November 21, 2007 6:24PM (UTC)
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A day after putting some wind in the sails of Barack Obama, the Washington Post-ABC News Poll out today offers some big pre-holiday momentum to Mike Huckabee.

The good news for the former Arkansas governor: "Huckabee has tripled his support in Iowa since late July, eclipsing former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Sen. Fred D. Thompson and Sen. John McCain."


The bad news for the former Arkansas governor: He's still four statistically insignificant points behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mit Romney, and the Post-ABC pollsters find signs that it's going to be hard for Huckabee to expand his support in Iowa much further.

Not surprisingly, much of Huckabee's Iowa support comes from the GOP's hard-right Christian base. The Post says that almost 70 percent of Iowans who say they're supporting Huckabee are evangelical Protestants, and three-quarters of the Huckabeeans say they go to church at least once a week. Romney gets support from a broader cross-section of Republican voters, and Iowa Republicans are more likely to think of him as a "strong leader" with the right experience to be president.

The overall Iowa picture at the moment? Romney leads with the support of 28 percent of would-be Iowa caucus goers, followed by Huckabee at 24 percent, Thompson at 15 percent, Giuliani at 13 percent and McCain and Texas Rep. Ron Paul tied at 6 percent each.

Tim Grieve

Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog.

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