The stable map

Taking a break from all Palin, all the time, notice how similar the map looks compared with the last two cycles.

Published September 2, 2008 7:45PM (EDT)

RealClearPolitics tracks national and state polls, and while some of the state polls do not yet reflect the effects of the Democratic National Convention or the Friday selection by John McCain of Sarah Palin as reflected in the newest Gallup results posted below, just look at how stable the current map looks when all leaning states are pushed into the column of the candidate presently ahead there.

The map as of today (or a few days ago, if you insist) looks eerily similar to the 2004 and 2000 maps.

I’ve said it before and will say it again: The 44th president of the United States, whoever that may be, is not going to enter office with more than 325 or, at most, 340 electoral votes.

The map is just too bifurcated and stable right now. Maybe Barack Obama can bust it open, but there aren’t going to be any 40-state, 60 percent wins ... unless, of course, McCain drops out and the Republican delegates see fit to nominate the good governor of the great state of Alaska as their presidential candidate.

By Thomas Schaller

Thomas F. Schaller is professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and the author of "Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South." Follow him @schaller67.

MORE FROM Thomas Schaller

Related Topics ------------------------------------------

2008 Elections War Room