Despite Mitt Romney's 16-point margin over President Obama in Texas in the 2012 election, the state GOP chairman says that Texas could swing Democratic in 2016 if Hillary Clinton decides to run.
Steve Munisteri told Real Clear Politics that Clinton could take the state from being "solid Republican": "If she's the nominee, I would say that this is a 'lean Republican state' but not a ‘solid Republican state. I don't know anyone nationally who's scoffing at this. The national party leadership is aware and tells me they're taking it seriously."
But, he added: "With everything aligned perfectly, and we don’t do what we’re supposed to do, sure they could win the state. But I anticipate we’ll do what we’re supposed to do.”
The Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling had a similar assessment of the race, releasing a poll last month that showed Clinton leading a number of potential Republican opponents in Texas. From PPP:
The results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to 45%, Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7 favorability rating (50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate voters—72% view her favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents among this voting group.