In his most recent New York Times column, economist Paul Krugman complained about the wishful thinking of Bernie Sanders supporters while simultaneously reassuring all those on the left that Donald Trump won't win the White House by discussing the rules of poll interpretation that he keeps seeing "violated."
Vis-a-vis Clinton and Sanders, he noted that while discussions of "momentum" may matter early in primaries, eventually it comes down to hard delegate counts, and Clinton has those won. "[S]he locked it up over a month ago with her big Mid-Atlantic wins, leaving Bernie Sanders no way to overtake her without gigantic, implausible landslides — winning two-thirds of the vote! — in states with large nonwhite populations, which have supported Mrs. Clinton by huge margins throughout the campaign."
He also implored readers to avoid relying on a single poll, as that can lead to "cherry-picking." "[T]he polling experts keep telling us to do is rely on averages of polls rather than highlighting any one poll in particular," he wrote. Which, he continued, brings us to the general election:
Here’s what you should know, but may not be hearing clearly in the political reporting: Mrs. Clinton is clearly ahead, both in general election polls and in Electoral College projections based on state polls.
It’s true that her lead isn’t as big as it was before Mr. Trump clinched the G.O.P. nomination, largely because Republicans have consolidated around their presumptive nominee, while many Sanders supporters are still balking at saying that they’ll vote for her...