As President Trump's 100-day mark in office approaches, data from four prominent swing states provides an early indication as to how voters feel about their new president. In the 2016 election, Trump was able to flip Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — states Barack Obama won in 2012. Firehouse Strategies and data firm 0ptimus spoke with 3,491 likely midterm voters with "a special interest in Trump’s honesty, the potential government shutdown, and how voters will respond in 2018 if Trump fails to deliver on his big promises."
In those four states, 80 percent of likely midterm voters believe that Trump lies or exaggerates the truth, according to a poll first published by Axios. However, 84 percent of voters think Republican members of Congress do the same. Basically, voters are aware that Trump lies, but think it's just par for the course in Washington.
For independents, 17.3 percent believe that Trump never lies, while 34.1 percent say he "exaggerates with good intent." These numbers are even higher among Republicans, 51.6 percent of which believe he "exaggerates with good intent." While 31.3 percent believe he never lies at all. Voters are generally aware that Trump lies but they don't care.
When it comes to Trump's promises and if he follows through with them before the 2018 midterm elections, voters decisions are generally not impacted. For example, if the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border is not in the process of being built by the time midterms come around, fewer than one in 10 Republican and independent voters said it wouldn't stop them from voting Republican.
Regarding the potential government shutdown this week both Democrats and Republicans do not feel pressure from their base to keep the government functioning. Only 16 percent of Democrats will blame the Democrats for the shutdown, while 19 percent of Republicans and independents would blame Trump. However, 31 percent of voters would blame the president or congressional Republicans (25 percent).