Republicans in Congress attempted to design their “big beautiful” budget bill to insulate themselves from the political consequences of slashing benefits for millions of Americans while cutting taxes for the rich. So far, their plan doesn’t seem to be working.
Some of the biggest changes under the bill signed into law on July 4, were delayed years into the future. For example, as of January 2027, Medicaid beneficiaries will have to pass eligibility checks every six months instead of once a year and all states will be required to impose work requirements for the program. Two years later, in 2029, Medicaid beneficiaries will face higher out-of-pocket costs.
The federal food stamp program, officially known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, will see major funding changes in 2027, with more of the costs shifted onto state governments, which will have to choose whether to restrict eligibility, cut benefits or raise taxes to fund the program.
Meanwhile, the buying power of SNAP benefits will continue to decline because Republicans froze the Thrifty Food Plan, which determines the value of SNAP benefits, at 2022 levels.
All these changes will occur well after the 2026 midterm elections, in an evident attempt to delay the real-world effects of this austerity agenda and potentially protect the narrow majority Republicans now hold in Congress. At the moment, however, it doesn’t look like the plan is working.
Already, institutions, particularly in health care, are making decisions based on the GOP megabill. Perhaps the most concrete example of this came in the wake of Hurricane Helene, which killed at least 250 people and wreaked havoc across the southeastern U.S. last September.
Politico’s E&E News reports that, because of the GOP’s budget cuts, the Unicoi County Hospital in rural east Tennessee — a predominantly Republican region — may never reopen after being severely flooded by Hurricane Helene. Specifically, the budget bill changed federal regulations governing states’ ability to levy taxes on health care providers, known as provider taxes, and the use of that money to fund Medicaid payments. Medicaid payments in turn, help keep hospitals in rural and poorer areas afloat financially.
While the potential loss of a hospital in a low-income rural area is one of the more immediate and dramatic results of the GOP budget, it’s not an isolated example. Numerous rural hospitals across the country are facing difficult decisions based on the impending loss of federal funding.
Despite Republican efforts to delay the harshest cuts, public opinion on the budget bill has turned negative, according to a recent Pew Research survey. The poll, from mid-August, found that 77% of respondents had an opinion on the budget bill, with 46% opposed and just 32% viewing the legislation positively.
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In many Republican districts, town hall meetings have become so hostile, largely in response to the budget bill, that GOP leaders have advised members to avoid holding such meetings altogether.
One town hall went dramatically south this past week, and created a viral video moment, in the central Missouri district of GOP Rep. Mark Alford, where the Cook Political Report gives Republicans a 21-point advantage. During the event, local farmer Fred Higginbotham told Alford to take his head “out of Trump’s a**.”
Higginbotham wasn’t done. “The only reason we have farmers today is because the federal government funds them,” he continued. “How much of our tax money goes to farmers? Farmers work very hard but they’re funded by the federal government, not by selling groceries.” The crowd erupted in applause. “You want to straighten out the budget?” he asked. “Start taxing corporations and the wealthy like we’ve been telling you. Do you think we’re idiots? Do you think we don’t pay taxes? Do you think that we don’t have to make budgets?”
Alford is far from the only Republican member of Congress to face an unfriendly crowd in his own district. Examples of backlash abound, from California to New York and even in red states like Florida and Wyoming.
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Disapproval of the GOP is beginning to show up in generic congressional polls as well, which seek to measure the relative strength of the two parties on a national scale. A recent survey conducted by Strength in Numbers and Verasight found that Democrats now lead Republicans by eight points, 49% to 41%, doubling their advantage from the previous poll in mid-July.
Although it’s too early for such polling to be meaningful, it’s conceivable that the massive unpopularity GOP agenda could bail out the Democrats, who themselves face record levels of unpopularity, in the upcoming midterms. Until recently, the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot has been relatively small, compared to recent midterm elections, when the president’s party historically loses seats in Congress.
