In an era of hyperpartisanship in which battle lines are proudly drawn to entrench both the red and the blue, the idea of a robust, purple faction might sound fanciful.
Purple states keep politics competitive, and can reflect a dynamic voter base that votes for themselves, rather than strictly for a party. States like Arizona and Wisconsin may vote majority blue some years or red in others, but overall, the state is something increasingly rare in American politics: moderate.
Enter New Hampshire, a state with only 3 electoral votes and roughly 1.4 million inhabitants. Despite its size, it’s far from inconsequential. It’s the most Republican state in liberal New England, yet has an all-Democrat federal delegation, contrasting with a statehouse dominated by conservatives.
The state usually votes blue when it comes to general elections, but it’s a close-run thing. The same can be said for state-level elections. New Hampshire’s history of being moderate is as certain as the next election isn’t.
That may no longer be the case, as the state’s Republicans must now contend with a rising tide from the MAGA movement within the state, and political challengers approved by President Donald Trump.
Andrew Smith, the director at the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, says that Trump’s 2024 victory has led to moderates in the state “laying low.”
“We’re in a little bit of a Trumpian moment that has divided the state,” Smith told Salon.
MAGA candidates tried to win big in New Hampshire in 2024, where the majority of Republican voters support Trump. While they failed on the federal level, the state level became red with officials who might not be pure MAGA, but are willing to keep their voices down.
Smith thinks that the moderation within the state’s Republican Party is all but gone since the right wing’s electoral sweep last year, something he calls a “real shift” in party politics.
“We’re in a little bit of a Trumpian moment that has divided the state.”
“The last stand of the never-Trumpers was in 2024 when they got behind Nicki Haley. But the voters go for the winner,” Smith said, acknowledging Trump’s “political strengths” in energizing voters, leading to a 2.8% spread favoring Kamala Harris in 2024. Even though it was a win for Harris, it was a much slimmer margin for Democrats than in years past.
“The more moderate voters are still here, but the leadership within the Republican party is definitely Trumpian leadership. That’s where the money is and that’s where the success is,” Smith said.
That zone of money and success is one that Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte is keen to stay in office, even as she threads the needle around parts of Trump’s national agenda.
In October, efforts from a state senator in New Hampshire to redistrict in favor of Republicans were put on indefinite hold. Ayotte refused to consider redrawing the congressional maps, noting that the state was “in the middle of a census.”
She also took credit for convincing the Department of Education to reverse its decision to withhold $5.5 billion in funding “designated for English language learner instruction, college and career counseling, STEM programs, and educator training.”
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At the same time, she has championed her Commission on Government Efficiency (COGE), an offshoot of the Trump administration’s recently-shuttered Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE. Ayotte also said that the administration’s retraction of $80 million in federal public health funding was a decision she disagreed with, but one she could “understand.”
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, says Ayotte is trying to channel a New Hampshire-first approach to her office, and dealing with Trump as little as possible while “finding common cause” when needed.
“A throwback to an earlier decade of Republican politics,” is how Scala described her to Salon. “She tends to her own backyard.” Scala says that New Hampshire voters are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, leading Independent voters to outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in the state. “Live free or die New Hampshire voters,” as Scala put it.
“New Hampshire Republicans are satisfied with Ayotte,” Scala said. “She’s not their idea of a Republican presidential candidate, but she is satisfactory, especially when considering a Democratic alternative.”
There may be a MAGA alternative. Ayotte’s redistricting refusal could create “consequences” for her, an unnamed national Republican official told Politico in September. Shortly after, news broke that Corey Lewandowski, a Trump ally and de facto chief of staff for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, was weighing a bid to run for Ayotte’s position. The news was met with mixed reactions. Lewandowski tried to downplay the rumors, while not ruling out a run.
Scala said he is “skeptical” of Lewandowski’s chances. Smith said Lewandowski is “not particularly popular” in the state, referencing his prior forays into politics.
Kathleen Sullivan, an attorney and the former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, told Salon she was confident that Ayotte was up to the challenge.
”She’d kick his ass,” Sullivan said, saying that Lewandoski running “would be a good thing” for Ayotte. “I don’t think a lot of people like him.”
Sullivan thinks Ayotte has enough support in the state to hold off a challenger for the time being. Polls show that Ayotte’s approval ratings have hovered between 53% and 47%, with the most recent putting it at 49%.
“It will be very interesting to see how John Sununu can make the argument to his fellow Republicans that conservative doesn’t necessarily mean Trump going forward.”
Sullivan isn’t singing the governor’s praises, nor ruling out the success of a MAGA challenger. “If Kelly has problems, there may be a chance,” she said. “She’s trying to walk the line, but she is not navigating it very well.”
It’s not just the governorship that is in MAGA’s crosshair — there’s also a Senate seat up for grabs.
Longtime Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will be retiring in 2026, creating an opening for Republicans to add a conservative member to the federal delegation. That will set up a fight between the moderate, former New Hampshire Senator John E. Sununu and the right-wing Scott Brown, a former Senator from Massachusetts and Trump appointee.
“To me, you’re more likely to see fireworks in the Senate primary, not the governor’s race,” Scala said. “It will be very interesting to see how John Sununu can make the argument to his fellow Republicans that conservative doesn’t necessarily mean Trump going forward.”
Sununu, part of the powerful political family in New Hampshire, has no love of the president, notably penning a 2024 op-ed titled “Donald Trump is a loser,” blaming him for “loss after painful loss” in the run-up to the general election.
Brown, who served as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa Trump’s first administration, defended him on selecting Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. In a July interview, Brown said he “would appreciate” an endorsement from Trump.
“He’s been kind of busy trying to get world peace,” Brown said of Trump.
A statewide poll showed that Sununu has an early lead in favorability over Brown. Smith said Sununu could “certainly win the primary,” saying that Brown is a “carpetbagger from Massachusetts.”
“Elections are not about purity; they’re about the choices you have that are closest to your positions,” Smith said. He noted Sununu’s record for supporting small government and laissez-faire economics, consistent with voters’ preference for an “old Republican” candidate.
Still, Sununu and Ayotte may have no choice but to tow the party line. After all, around 70% of Republicans approve of Trump.
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“They’re doing the Trump dance — they don’t want to be too close, but they don’t want to get too far away,” Smith said.
Sullivan said that Sununu “cannot hide from Trump” when speaking with the New Hampshire Bulletin in September. “As long as John E. Sununu is a member of the Republican Party, he’s a Trumpist,” Sullivan said.
Thomas Rath, former attorney general of New Hampshire and a member of the RNC Rules Committee, notes a “real conflict” in the state’s Republicans needing to be moderate enough for voters while right-wing enough for MAGA.
“At the moment, I see their control as complete and absolute and not permitting of dissention,” Rath said of MAGA. In his mind, being “less far right but more toward the center” is what wins elections for Republicans in his state. “Governing from the middle,” as he says.
New Hampshire Republicans are balancing the need to stay true to the state’s classic idea of Republican politics while confronting the reach of Trumpism. “There’s been some success in not getting us overrun,” Rath said. It is unclear just how long that can last. If Ayotte and Sununu continue to defy Trump, even slightly, they may face tougher challengers than Brown and Lewandowski.
“New Hampshire likes it the way it is,” Rath said. “It likes being feisty. It likes a sense of unpredictability.”
