Viktor Orban’s problems undercut Trump’s new world order

Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is a dark, repressive place. But Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation — the conservative think-tank that has given America, among other gifts, Project 2025 — has called it not just the “model for modern statecraft, but the model. Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Australians — everyone — can and should learn from it.”

Those words may sound odd coming from a right-wing American activist, the type who would have previously heaped contempt on anyone who suggested that a country other than the United States is the model the world should follow. But these are different times, and America’s right-wing intelligentsia has had a crush on Orbán for some time now. The question is whether the Hungarian people are as enamored as they are. For the first time in 16 years, Orbán is facing a tough reelection battle. 

Hungarians will go to the polls on April 12, and if the elections are fair and uncorrupted, it appears Orbán and his Hungarian Civil Union Party, known as Fidesz, will lose. Current polling averages show his chief rival, Péter Magyar of the Respect and Freedom Party, more commonly referred to as Tisza, with a healthy 15-point lead that has held for most of the past year. But in Hungary, which has been defined as an “electoral autocracy,” a manipulated electoral map coupled with Orbán’s years of corruption mean there is no guarantee that Magyar can pull off a victory, even with a commanding lead. Still, it’s the best chance in years to unseat the prime minister, as the widespread discontent has caused several other parties with smaller constituencies to step back in an effort to consolidate the anti-government vote behind Magyar and Tisza.

By any objective measure, Orbán is a demonstrable failure as a government leader. His overwhelming corruption, anti-democratic practices and cozy relationship with Vladimir Putin — even as Russia threatens all of Europe with its aggressive war in Ukraine — has made Hungary increasingly isolated from the European Union, with which the country does almost all its business. The E.U. has frozen aid to Hungary for the past several years, and the economy is in bad shape, contracting 0.8% in 2023 and growing by only 0.5% over the two following years. People are feeling the pinch, and they might be finally realizing just what a disaster his tenure has been.

But that doesn’t mean Orbán doesn’t have friends. Virtually every right-wing extremist in the world counts him as an inspiration, starting with his good pal Putin, who supplies almost all of Hungary’s energy needs, and China’s Xi Jinping, who counts Hungary as its closest E.U. ally. Nearly every far-right leader in Europe — France’s Marine LePen, Germany’s Alice Weidel, Spain’s Santiago Abascal, Poland Karol Nawrocki and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders — has made appearances in support of Orbán. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave his endorsement, as did the chainsaw-wielding leader Javier Milei of Argentina. 

Donald Trump, who has long looked to Orbán as a role model, has also provided his “complete and total” endorsement, and has dispatched Secretary of State Marco Rubio to offer promises of financial support — the same gambit that many observers think made the difference in Milei’s win a few months ago. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Hungary and lend his support to Orbán just four to five days before the election.

The Hungarian prime minister is revered by authoritarians everywhere, and because he has been such a path-breaking autocrat demonstrating the new soft fascism, his impending loss seems to be making them nervous. They must be wondering what it could mean for them. After all, Orbán’s anti-democratic policies were intended in part to not only prevent a defeat from happening, but also to keep people from ever wanting it to happen.

For all of his failures at actual governance, Orbán boasts quite a list of autocratic accomplishments. He perverted the rule of law and institutions through constitutional changes and the appointment of cronies to previously nonpartisan positions. He took over private media outlets and obliterated the state media’s independence. He marginalized academia and non-governmental organizations. He ran an intimidating culture war, attacking and ostracizing the LGBTQ community, pushed so-called Christian values and rewrote history. But mostly Orbán has simply been monumentally corrupt, pressuring every sector of the economy for the benefit of his cronies.

Magyar has made the corruption and cronyism of Orbán’s so-called “mafia state” a focal point of his campaign, and most observers point to that decision to explain why he has gained and maintained so much traction in the polls. He has also pledged to rebuild public services with the return of frozen E.U. funds. As a former member of Fidesz, Magyar is a conservative politician in his own right; he left the party over a major scandal that implicated Orbán in a pardon linked to a cover-up of child abuse in a state-run children’s home. But he’s not tainted with the prime minister’s venality, and that’s the key.

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Orbán, on the other hand, is simply running a massive smear campaign against Magyar. But the usual fear tactics don’t appear to be working. That failure has left Orbán to try a new strategy, according to the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum, in what “may be the world’s first post-reality campaign.”

Fidesz is spending a fortune using social media, posters, artificial intelligence and even foreign help in convincing people that Ukraine is about to invade Hungary. The notion is ridiculous; as we know, Ukraine is a bit busy at the moment trying to fend off the Russians, who are trying to take over their country. No matter, Applebaum writes, calling on the world to “pay attention, because this may be the future of electoral politics: Multiple politicians from several countries are shoveling propaganda at an electorate in order to build terror of an enemy that doesn’t exist at all.”

The smears are so crude they make Trump’s team look tame by comparison. They include the AI slop of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy snorting cocaine and counting money while sitting on a golden toilet, and a fake Magyar saying that Hungarian factories should be turned over to foreigners. Even stranger, a SpongeBob-type character accuses Magyar “wip[ing] up cocaine with me after he accidentally sneezed and it all fell to the floor.” (Cocaine must be a particular bête noire in Hungary.)

All this smacks of desperation, something we’re starting to get a whiff of here in the United States, as Trump and his supporters are pushing mightily to suppress voting rights through the SAVE Act and posting footage of the Iran war combined with violent video game clips. We haven’t yet reached the cocaine-on-the-toilet stage, but I’d guess it’s coming. 

Viktor Orbán may yet be able to hold it together for another term, but the writing is on the wall. A defeat on April 12 would be seen as a loss for all the right-wing tyrants and various despots around the world who have been inspired by his “model state” and strongman tactics. This includes Donald Trump, whose new world order was largely inspired by the Hungarian prime minister. 

“There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader,” the president said on March 8, 2024, as Orbán visited Mar-a-Lago. “He’s fantastic… He’s a non-controversial figure because he says, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it. Right? He’s the boss.”

From undermining America’s democratic institutions and the rule of law to spreading disinformation about and cracking down on immigrants, people of color, LGBTQ people and the media, Trump has attempted to emulate Orbán’s success — and he has succeeded to varying degrees. 

Hungary is a cautionary tale for Americans under Trump. Let’s hope that April 12 will prove to be a day of reckoning.